Florida faces a No. 1 ranked team for the second time this season when the Gators meet archrival Georgia in the 99th installment of the World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party this weekend in Jacksonville (3:30 p.m., CBS).

For the Gators, it’s a chance to salvage something from a terribly frustrating season, one that has seen the Gators lose 3 games by 7 points or less. It’s also a tremendous opportunity to change the narrative around a program that is confronting serious questions about its future under Dan Mullen as a result of those defeats. 

A year ago, the Gators were on Cloud 9, having vanquished the Dawgs 44-28 at the Cocktail Party on their way to capturing the SEC East crown and playing in the SEC Championship game. Since, Florida is 8-6, including 6 losses in its past 8 contests against Power 5 opponents. Georgia, meanwhile, is 11-0 in that span, riding dominant defense and solid quarterback play to victory after victory and by mid-October, the No. 1 ranking.

Georgia should win Saturday. They are better defensively, more talented than the Gators, capable offensively and should be plenty motivated after getting whipped in this game a season ago.

But strange things happen on the banks of the St. John’s River.

Take these numbers as proof that’s not a myth.

In traditional Power 5 rivalry games since 2010, favored teams have a .745 win percentage. That number is .730 through 2000, but that’s still a strong win percentage.

In the Cocktail Party, however, underdogs tend to put up a better fight. In the past 50 seasons, teams ranked Nos. 6-10 have a record of 14-11 (.560). Teams ranked Nos. 1-5 have a slightly better mark, at 13-9, but that is still only a win percentage of (.590). That number includes a 2-1 mark for teams ranked No. 1, with the 1985 Gators having been crushed by Georgia 24-3. Unranked teams have defeated ranked teams an unusually high 8 times in those 50 seasons as well. In other words, all is not lost for the Gators.

Here are 5 reasons the Gators will (or at least can?) win.

Mullen will turn things over to Anthony Richardson, and he’ll be ready

As embarrassing as Florida’s 49-42 loss to LSU was, it may ultimately prove to be a blessing in disguise.

The rubber was going to meet the road at some point on the Emory Jones vs. Anthony Richardson competition. While Mullen is factually correct that the numbers between the quarterbacks are similar, the eye test is not. Richardson is the type of talent that can help a good team become a great one and overcome talent differentials in the process. He does things that boggle the mind, whether it’s break tackles and leap over defenders in a single bound:

Or throw frozen ropes in tight coverage:

When a longtime NFL scout and quarterback guru took to Twitter earlier this year to say that right now, Anthony Richardson is “ahead” of where Cam Newton and Lamar Jackson were, and compares to them “favorably,” Gators fans salivated. Mullen stuck with Jones.

Jones rewarded Mullen for 2 games, putting in tremendous performances against Alabama and Tennessee. But Jones has been average at best since, and while he’s clearly a decent Power 5 quarterback, he is not the type of talent you need to negate a significant talent differential. Florida needs that type of difference-maker if it is going to ultimately overcome not just Georgia this weekend, but also the systemic shortcomings of Mullen as a recruiter.

Richardson still makes mistakes, as evidenced by the 2 horrific interceptions he threw against LSU. But that stuff will stop with more snaps and repetitions. And the kid’s immense ceiling, coupled with the comeback he led against LSU, show he’s ready. Mullen may play both quarterbacks early against Georgia, but with the game on the line, he’ll turn it over to Richardson, who is the one player Florida has that can change the dynamics of the game.

Florida will stay on schedule with its run game

Georgia’s defense is nasty. The Dawgs rank No. 1 or No. 2 in the following national statistical categories: SP+ defensive efficiency (1st), total defense (1st),  scoring defense (1st, by 8 points!), opponent success rate (1st), opponent yards per play (1st), rushing defense (2nd), explosive plays allowed (2nd).

There isn’t an obvious weakness, and while you can nitpick at the schedule, the one time they were challenged by a quality offense (Arkansas), they limited it to 162 total yards and pitched a shutout.

Florida will, without question, be the best offense Georgia has faced. The Gators have won the yardage battle (winks at Mullen) in every game they’ve played. They rank No. 1 in the SEC in yards per play, 5th nationally in SP+ offense, 2nd in the SEC in offensive success rate (Arkansas, the 2nd-best offense Georiga has played, is 36th!) and No. 1 in the country in yards per rush attempt, No. 1 in the SEC in explosive plays and 2nd in the SEC (Ole Miss) and 9th nationally in total offense.

Florida won’t run over and through the Dawgs by any stretch of the imagination. But a focused Florida team could generate nearly 250 yards rushing against Alabama’s outstanding front 7 (1oth in yards allowed per rush attempt), the Gators can absolutely move the sticks against the Junkyard Dawgs.

A solid run game should help Florida stay on schedule, which will allow Mullen to keep things simple for his quarterbacks.

Florida’s defense will play its best game of the season

A year ago, the Gators’ defensive line dominated the Dawgs up front. The Gators sacked Stetson Bennett IV and D’Wan Mathis 3 times, collected 14 pressures, and tallied 5 tackles for loss in their 16-point victory. The Gators have a better defensive line in 2021 than they had in 2020, thanks to improved play from former 5-star defensive tackle Gervon Dexter and 2 impact transfers, Antonio Valentino and Daquan Newkirk.

Coming off their worst game of the season, the Gators will be motivated and focused facing a Georgia team that thrives in keeping the chains moving. The Dawgs are a middle of the pack SEC offense when it comes to generating explosive plays (6th), but they do a great job on 3rd down (3rd in the SEC at 47%), and they do a great job at limiting negative plays, ranking 2nd in the SEC in fewest tackles for loss and in limiting sacks (behind only Florida).

The Gators have lost the Cocktail Party under Mullen because Todd Grantham’s unit couldn’t get off the field on 3rd down (see, 2019, when Georgia went 12-for-18!). They’ve also dominated 3rd down (2020, when Georgia was 2-for-13!). Saturday, playing to salvage their season, they’ll look more like the 2020 group.

That will be enough because …

Florida will finally protect the football

Florida is 4-3 despite having outgained every one of its opponents and scored 29 and 42 points in 2 of  their 3 losses.

According to Bill Connelly, the guy behind the insanely reliable SP+ rankings, the Gators’ postgame win expectancy, which uses a play by play statistical analysis to determine how likely a team was to win the game given the outcome of every play in the game, found the Gators’ win expectancy in their defeat to Kentucky to be 62%!

It was even better against Alabama, with Florida winning in 91% of the game’s outcomes. In the LSU game, the most recent analysis shows it at about 80%!

In other words, Florida is doing enough on most every play to win football games. Unfortunately for Mullen and the Gators, they fall on their face for a few plays every game and find a way to lose. The Gators are 0-7 in their past 7 games decided by a touchdown or less.

The biggest reason this year? Turnovers.

Florida lost the turnover battle 1-0 to Alabama, but the Crimson Tide turned Florida’s lone turnover into a short field touchdown drive. Alabama won the game by 2, with 7 points off the Florida turnover.

Kentucky blocked a field goal and returned it for a touchdown. The Wildcats also scored another touchdown off a short field they claimed following an Emory Jones interception. Kentucky scored 7 points off turnovers and 7 with special teams, and won by 7.

LSU turned the Gators over 4 times. One turnover was a pick-6, one ended the game, and the other 2 resulted in short field LSU touchdown drives. LSU won the turnover battle 4-0 and scored 21 points off Florida turnovers, winning by 7.

Saturday, for the first time all season, the Gators will protect the football. That will be just enough to nip their archrivals in a tight game.

All the pressure is on Georgia

My colleague Connor O’Gara wrote this week that Florida has “plenty to lose” in Jacksonville, and he’s right. 

Things haven’t been pretty for Mullen’s program this year and a big loss in the Cocktail Party will make last year’s rout of Georgia look more and more like an aberration than an announcement that Florida is going to consistently challenge Georgia in the SEC East.

But Florida having “something to lose” doesn’t mean they have any pressure Saturday. Win or lose, the Gators are at best a 9-win team headed to the Citrus Bowl and at worst a 7- or 8-win outfit headed to the Outback, Gator, or Duke’s Mayo Bowl. None of those options will energize the Florida fan base.

You know what will? A win over Georgia.

Mullen’s insistence on keeping Grantham (whether administration aided or not), coupled with his lack of recruiting acumen and handling of Florida’s quarterback situation this season has already soured much of Gator nation on the head coach who was No. 1 in Gator hearts after the Georgia game last season.

But Mullen isn’t playing for perfection Saturday. Mullen isn’t coaching the No. 1 team in the country, a prohibitive Vegas favorite to win the national title that has eluded them since 1980, either. Can Georgia accomplish those goals even if they lose Saturday? Probably.

But the pressure is all on the red and black sideline. Once so many key players that could have departed returned for the 2021 campaign, the pressure was on Smart to deliver the goods. If he can’t beat Florida Saturday, does doubt begin to creep in, just as Alabama figures things out in the SEC West? It’s a lot to think about, even with revenge as a motivator.

The Gators should be angry, loose, and plenty motivated. That might be enough.