Florida and Florida State meet for the 68th time on Saturday in Tallahassee (7 pm, ESPN2).

The game features 2 programs headed in very different directions.

The Seminoles are 2-9, a stunning turn of events from the preseason, when Florida State was a top 10 team projected to make the College Football Playoff after a 13-0 regular season ended in a Playoff snub in 2023.

The Gators are 6-5, typically nothing to write home about, but the way they’ve gotten there is impressive. Florida lost 2 home games by a combined 37 points in the months of August and September, putting embattled coach Billy Napier on the chopping block. Florida’s high level boosters even raised $27 million to pay Napier’s buyout in the week after a humbling home loss to Texas A&M.

Not many coaches survive rock bottom, but Napier seems to have stared down adversity with an alligator’s grin. Playing a daunting schedule, the Gators have rattled off 2 of the nation’s most impressive wins in November, defeating then-No. 22 LSU and then-No. 9 Ole Miss in back-to-back weeks. Florida won both games by being the better team on both lines of scrimmage, showing a physicality Florida has lacked this decade. Most important, the Gators have a budding star in freshman quarterback DJ Lagway, who is 4-0 in games he has started and finished. Lagway leads the nation in success rate on passes of 30 yards or more (64%) and seems to have the rare ability to raise the level of play around him.

As Ole Miss coach Lane Kiffin put it last week, “DJ is a special player. He’s the kind of player who makes everyone around him better. It’s remarkable to be that poised as a freshman.”

Florida State has won 2 straight in this old rivalry, and the Seminoles will be playing to salvage something from a nightmare of a season. Florida will be looking for its first win in this rivalry under Napier and their first season with more than 1 rivalry win since 2020.

The better team tends to win in this game, which lacks the unpredictability and upsets associated with other storied rivalries. But that doesn’t mean anything comes easy. Underdogs have covered in the past 3 matchups. Florida enters as a 17 point favorite on the road, per DraftKings Sportsbook.

Here are 3 matchups that will define Florida and Florida State.

Luke Kromenhoek vs. Florida’s pressure

Florida State will start their own blue-chip true freshman. Kromenhoek made his first career start last week, completing 13-of-20 passes for 209 yards and 3 TDs in FSU’s 41-7 win over Charleston Southern. Kromenhoek began the year No. 3 on FSU’s depth chart, behind starter DJ Uiagelelei and backup Brock Glenn. Uiagelelei was lost for the season due to a hand injury he suffered against SMU. Glenn started the next 5 games, but was benched after a dismal 5-for-18, 51-yard, 2-interception performance at then-No. 10 Notre Dame. Enter Kromenhoek, a 4-star quarterback from Savannah with outstanding arm strength and toughness, having been a star safety in high school as well.

Charleston Southern, a 1-win FCS team, offered little resistance for the Seminoles, but coach Mike Norvell hopes it got Kromenhoek comfortable ahead of Saturday night’s test against Florida.

“He threw the 3 touchdown passes and made a lot of good decisions. There’s some throws that he missed, some parts of different reads and progressions where I think he’s going to continue to even become that much more efficient around it. He’ll progress,” Norvell told the media this week.

He’ll have to do so in a hurry against a Florida defense that has gotten after the quarterback at a high level. Florida produced 7 sacks against an LSU offensive line that had allowed just 6 the entire season. Against Ole Miss, Florida sacked Heisman hopeful Jaxson Dart, the national leader in passing efficiency, 4 times.

What was most impressive in each game was Florida’s ability to get pressure with just 4.


Florida defensive tackle Caleb Banks has been a massive reason for Florida’s success. Here, Banks shows how he can affect the quarterback without even registering a sack. On this play, Banks pushes the guard off the snap back into the pocket as Dart finishes his drop. It is enough to where Dart has to move up, disrupting the timing of the play and eventually resulting in a loss. Over the past 2 games, Banks has a nation-high 14 pressures. Those have resulted in 8 quarterback hurries, 3 sacks and 5 quarterback hits. Those numbers would be good for an entire defensive line, let alone one player.

Florida’s disruptive tackles have caused even veteran quarterbacks to feel ghosts and believe they have less time than the pocket suggests.

Take this play later against Ole Miss. Cam Jackson (99) wins off the point of attack, but the pocket still holds, even if it is pushed a step deeper than Dart may like. Jackson also never gets home, but Dart elects to leave the pocket anyway. He throws incomplete and Ole Miss settles for a field goal — their lone score of the second half.

Florida also produced bad decisions with pressure, as on this interception by Dart late in the game (30 seconds into video). Again, Florida’s tackles push the pocket back, but this time, the defensive ends win their rep, closing outside. Dart steps up and has to hurry his throw, leading to an interception by Bryce Thornton to seal the win for Florida.

Florida was playing at home in the LSU and Ole Miss wins, of course, which allows them to use crowd noise to gain a small advantage off the snap. But those dominant games came against established, proven starters in Dart and LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier.

While some college football minds have alleged Florida lacks talent on the defensive line, the numbers say this group ranks top 10 in pressures and sacks over their past 5 games.

That’s a nasty test for FSU, and Luke Kromenhoek will have to make quality, safe decisions to give FSU a chance to pull the upset.

Florida outside zone runs vs. Florida State’s edge contain

Florida controlled the clock in their win over Ole Miss by rushing for 164 yards against the nation’s number 2 run defense.

The Gators were most successful in a Napier staple — outside zone, where Florida averaged 4.5 yards per play, per SEC Stat Cat. While that was below their season average of 5.8 yards per play in that concept, it was enough to keep the Rebels defense off balance and keep the Gators multiple offensively.

Against LSU, Florida was also successful in outside zone, salting the game away on this pitch to Jadan Baugh in the concept.

https://twitter.com/PFF_College/status/1857934957668110647

Between Baugh and senior Montrell Johnson, the Gators’ top 2 running backs average over 6 yards per carry in outside zone concepts over the past 5 games.

This could present a mismatch for FSU’s defense, which has struggled to contain the edge this season. The Seminoles have surrendered 5.4 yards per rush on outside zone concepts this season, a huge reason their run defense ranks 106th in the country.

FSU then tends to bring cat pressure to help seal the edge, which makes them vulnerable on inside zone if linebackers fail to fit gaps. This run by Jadarian Price is exemplary, and it’s also the type of run where Johnson thrives (6.3 per touch). Florida State has surrendered 67 explosive runs (10 yards or more) this season, ranking 119th in the country in that category.

It’s hard to see FSU surviving the Florida run game on Saturday if those numbers don’t improve.

DJ Lagway vs. “The Big Mistake”

To date, DJ Lagway has avoided disastrous throws, save this throw which came on Lagway’s first pass attempt on the road after Graham Mertz left the Tennessee game with a season-ending injury.

On this pass, Tennessee just dropped a linebacker into zone late. Lagway didn’t see Arion Carter until the ball was released. The play changed the trajectory of a game Florida once led by 10 points. Lagway also threw an interception against Ole Miss that the Rebels quickly turned into a touchdown, but that came off a tip on a catchable pass to Chimere Dike.

To win Saturday, Florida State must do what SEC teams haven’t yet done and make Lagway look like a true freshman. Confuse him, pressure him with their outstanding defensive ends, and hope he throws into coverage a few times.

If Lagway avoids costly mistakes, Florida likely wins.

Prediction: Florida 35, Florida State 10

The Gators are rolling and will finish the regular season strong by dominating a down and out rival. Expect FSU to hang close for a half, but the Gators will churn out run game explosives to open the downfield pass for Lagway and the Florida offense late. The Gators turn a 1-score game into a rout by the 4th quarter and secure their first winning season since 2020 on Bobby Bowden Field.