Florida vs. South Florida: 3 final thoughts and a prediction

Florida rolled into the Kentucky game with the momentum of a freight train.

The Gators and new head coach Billy Napier spent the past 2 months of summer scoring big-time victories on the recruiting trail and then spent opening night derailing a Power 5 conference champion and College Football Playoff contender, then-No. 7 Utah, in The Swamp.

Anthony Richardson was set to become a star, drawing rave comparisons to everyone from Cam Newton to Vince Young to another Gator that wore No. 15. The Gators defense made the plays it needed to, including 2 goal line stands and a game-clinching interception in the end zone, to secure the victory. Suddenly, a season thought by most as a year to lay a sturdy foundation for the future under Napier became a season with surprise expectations about the present.

What a difference a week can make, no?

Kentucky outplayed and outlasted the Gators in The Swamp, pulling off a 26-16 victory and exposing Florida’s various flaws in the process.

Richardson played poorly and while his prodigious talent can’t be denied, he’s still a quarterback with 3 career starts under his belt. The Florida offensive line, championed as a strength of the team all offseason, struggled to move the pile against a terrific Kentucky front. Florida also lacked any vertical playmakers who could truly challenge Kentucky’s back end and safeties, the one weakness of Mark Stoops’ excellent defense.

Whether these issues are recruiting problems, development problems, coaching problems or a little bit of everything, Florida’s 2nd home loss to Kentucky in the past 3 Swamp contests was a difficult one for the Gators. Will it be a learning experience? We’ll start to find out on Saturday night when South Florida visits Gainesville.

Here are 3 final thoughts on the Gators and Bulls, who will clash at 7:30 p.m. on SEC Network.

1. Let Anthony Richardson be Anthony Richardson

Richardson’s skill level is so high — an NFL front office executive this week told me, “He has the most natural combination of arm talent and speed we’ve seen since Cam Newton, but he’s much more raw at this point” — that a few more of the “Utah weeks” are inevitable. But while Richardson has the most talent of any Florida quarterback since Newton and yes, Tim Tebow, he isn’t either of those players. He’s Anthony Richardson, and the staff needs to put him in position to win and be successful, as it did against Utah.

What does that look like?

For one, it means less pocket-passing concepts and more moving the pocket. Richardson needs to have the opportunity to shorten the field and his frame of view in the passing game with the option to take off and run if reads 1 and 2 aren’t there. Florida didn’t do enough of that for its young quarterback last Saturday night and those coaching choices were costly.

Secondly, Richardson should always be a factor in the Florida run game. A game where he has just 3 called run plays, together with 2 scrambles and a sack? That’s not playing to Richardson’s strengths as a playmaker.

I said on an SDS Spaces last week that Richardson reminded me most of Young, the canonical Texas quarterback who took down the USC dynasty in the 2005 Rose Bowl. A great thread this week by Year 2 (first tweet below) served as a quality reminder that Young took his fair share of “bad game” lumps early in his career as well.

Over the offseason, there were a lot of comparisons of Anthony Richardson's idealized ceiling to Cam Newton due to similar physical attributes. More recently, Vince Young started coming up.

It now looks like Young is the more apt comparison. ?

— David Wunderlich (@Year2) September 13, 2022

He was not, like Newton, ready-made for a Heisman run in his first year as a starting quarterback. The ceiling and skillset are similar, per NFL scouts, draft analysts and executives. But the journey will be longer. Saturday is a chance to get Richardson back on the right path.

2. A dominant game from the O-line would be ideal

Florida’s offensive line didn’t help matters against the Wildcats, especially in the second half, when Kentucky imposed its physical will on the game on both lines of scrimmage. Most of Florida’s issues came on the left side, where the Gators’ reliance on a couple of backups who had nice summer camps had disappointing outcomes.

AR's struggles were the biggest part of the loss, but there was some suspect blocking in 2H.

Backup OLs LG Leonard and RT Barber both miss the block on the LB, helping unblocked 13 bottle up Johnson. pic.twitter.com/LeVez8YiSM

— David Wunderlich (@Year2) September 13, 2022

Florida has to run effectively to protect Richardson, because there’s no vertical threat in this offense to keep defenses honest. Safeties are going to cheat, which means the Gators have to win assignment football battles and give their running backs a chance to win on the second level.

In the passing game, the Gators need to give their young quarterback time to run through his progressions before he worries about improvising. They didn’t do that last Saturday night against Kentucky, either.

3rd down. LG Leonard doesn't see the stunt from 13 until it's too late. Kingsley barely catches it in time. pic.twitter.com/gRO8AB2SfV

— David Wunderlich (@Year2) September 13, 2022

This Saturday, Florida faces a putrid South Florida defense that enters The Swamp ranked 127th in the country in run defense. The Bulls (1-1) have already given up 482 yards rushing this year, including over 300 to opening week foe BYU, now ranked 12th in the country.

Florida should be able to dominate this game at the point of attack. It’s important that “should” becomes “did.”

3. Take away the football and find defensive line depth

Florida has produced only 2 turnovers in its first 2 games, including Amari Burney’s game-clinching interception against Utah. Getting takeaways against well-disciplined, well-coached outfits like Utah and Kentucky is nothing to frown at, but the Gators need to take away the football more this year if they want a chance at additional marquee victories. Giving an offense that lacks elite perimeter playmakers a short field is a better recipe for victory than hoping you stay on schedule and drive the length of the field several times a game.

South Florida has protected the quarterback well, surrendering just 2 sacks in its first 2 games. Florida has just 3 sacks in its first 2 contests. Something has to give. Florida ranked 115th in turnover margin a season ago and 13th in the SEC. That ranking needs to be top 5 in the SEC this year if the Gators want a genuine shot at 9 or even 10 wins.

I included finding defensive line depth, too, because I think fresh defensive linemen help produce takeaways better than tired ones.

Last week, Gervon Dexter Sr. produced the type of game Florida fans have waited for from the former 5-star recruit. Six tackles, 1.5 sacks, 3 tackles for loss and an interception. That’s monstrous stuff. Brenton Cox Jr. was terrific for a second consecutive game as well, leading Florida in pressures with 6.

Does Florida have depth? Does depth correlate to more takeaways? Florida’s current snap counts for Cox and Dexter, both over 100 snaps on the season, is too high. It’s partly why the Gators’ defense has buckled a bit late in games. Reps for young bucks this week like Desmond Watson, Chris McLellan and the encouraging Justus Boone might help Florida slowly solve that problem.

But for now, the Gators feel the absence of Khris Bogle, who left for Michigan State, and the slower than expected emergence of Antwaun Powell-Ryland as the current reserves aren’t trusted enough to get Cox much of a breather and no one behind Dexter has earned the staff’s full confidence.

The prediction

Florida 49, South Florida 13