Paul Finebaum thinks the Florida hype is real for 2020
Is this the year Dan Mullen takes the Florida Gators to Atlanta?
That’s the next step for Mullen’s Gators. With one of the few returning starting quarterbacks in Kyle Trask and always aggressive defense behind Todd Grantham, analysts expect big things from the Gators in 2020. With back-to-back 10-win seasons (11 in 2019), Mullen has proven he can notch double digit wins. He did that at Mississippi State, too. Now, it’s time for Florida to hoist some hardware.
ESPN’s Paul Finebaum believes in the Gators this year, mainly because of how well Mullen and staff have been recruiting.
“I think it’s real,” Finebaum said on Steve Russell’s Sports Scene when asked if he sees the Gators taking big steps forward, via 247Sports. “I say that because Dan Mullen is doing now what Florida hasn’t done consistently in a long time, and that’s recruit well. I have never understood why you can’t just drag someone off the street and recruit well (in Gainesville). He has done that. He also has developed a really nice staff down there and he’s bringing great players in and on top of that he’s just a great coach. Dan Mullen has separated himself from so many other people on the offensive side of the ball.”
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Mullen has always been known as a great developer, especially on the offensive side of the ball, but it would boost recruiting even more if he could hire another ace recruiter or 2. Still, Mullen is recruiting well enough to win the division right now. Most of it will hinge on quarterback play.
But the one question keeps coming up — when will Mullen beat Kirby Smart and the Georgia Bulldogs?
“Where does that leave us with Florida-Georgia?” Finebaum asked . “Last year we all watched the same game. It was close, and it could have tilted. The LSU game was laser thin and Florida had the lead late in the game. It doesn’t take much. It takes a series or two to turn that around and I certainly think Florida is capable of that.”
Florida always has the Georgia game circled, but after starting 0-2 with UF, it’s time for Mullen to win the UGA game.
Welllllll pawl, today is your lucky day, you can bet on GatorbaitorU at +125…gonna got rich, pawwwwwwl….
So now people just say things without any actual proof, and we’re all supposed to just let it slide?
Hey you bald dummy, no, Dan MuLLLen is not recruiting well. He and his staff, given the state they’re in, are actually recruiting mediocrely.
Their blue chip ratio is so far behind Georgia’s that the gap is real. Georgia can go three deep in some places with blue chip players. Floriduh barely has enough blue chippers to go one deep.
So yeah… keep telling us all how “now is the time” for Sideshow Dan the Clown to win and provide nothing but empty words with no proof.
We’re living in a feelings over fact world now everywhere else. Might as well be in CFB, too.
Time to party like its 1980!!! Bulldogs, champs off the offseason every year with no nothing to show for it… at least u got Fields this year to step in for Fromm..
Oh wait
That all you got, ‘turd? You know what I have? 24-17 and you ‘turds under our heel.
Ding! Fries are done!
As usual they’re here with the irrational stupidity.
Corch based on your claim kollie is a blue chip recruit you don’t seem to even know what one is. You are worse than almost everyone with your daily claims.
The blue chip ratio on UF’s roster has more than doubled since Mullen took over… And the bc gap between the 2 teams is a little less than half. He’s wrong as usual.
Yeah, except for the gap to actually close, you would need to recruit better than us, and you’re not. So while MuLLLen and his staff of crap recruiters may luck into a blue chip here and there, the fact remains, we lap y’all several times every signing day.
And yet G8rUpstater, Gainesville, Miami and Tallahassee continue to see the top talent in the most fertile recruiting grounds anywhere in the nation flow North and West…
Found a very interesting article the other day on the subject. A Rolling 4 year did ya know… 2005-2008 60% of the state of Florida’s top talent stayed in-state 2009-2012 it dropped to 52%
2013-2016 diwn again to 47%
2017 Age of Kirby including 2018 age of Mullet to year 2020…still 47%
And if you go with TOP 100 state of Florida recruits that number is even more dismal now From a high of 66% 2005-2008 to now, 44% 2017-2020…
These numbers mirror Brewsters wall class of 2021 so far as well…
Gap shrinking? BCR improving? If Mullet could simply take care of the home state exodus y’all could crush the world with that elite talent combined with the greatest coach on the planet that y’all have. Thank gawd for the Transfer Portal, it’ll keep him employed and sucking 7million a year from the boosters in the near term.
There are times when percentages are misleading. Like when you fail to note that Florida produces 44-45 blue chip high school players every year, three times the number likely to be recruited to any single school.
And when you fail to note that the percentages are skewed by two of the bog three Florida schools currently being down, which affects the overall number of players who stay in-state.
^ big, not bog.
I didn’t write the article, just the messenger here. Bottom line tho, in state recruiting sure has fallen off in a 15 year span, and the curve ain’t a flattnin in gatorspeak (:
You’re right. The curve ain’t flattenin’. It’s trending sharply upward in the last two years.
For UF, that is.
Corch and humper what have you done with that huge gap in talent? Lose to less talented teams every year. Check.
Fail to bring an NC. Check.
At least you can claim recruiting national championships along with those Spring championships.
Morons bragging about the wrong thing and once they lose to UF what are they gonna does
Corch and humper what have you done with that huge gap in talent? Lose to less talented teams every year. Check.
Fail to bring an NC. Check.
At least you can claim recruiting national championships along with those Spring championships.
Morons bragging about the wrong thing and once they lose to UF what are they gonna do
@cojones
Name a team that hasn’t lost to a less talented team in the last 2 years. Sure, you could say lsu, clem and ohio st…..and uf last year, but expand it just one more year and you’ll likely come up with zero.
Sure, UGA has zero nat’l championships in the last 40 yrs….as that’s been well-documented on here, but what I also know is UGA leads the all-time series w/ uf by dbl digits and has won the last three.
Oh my, defaulting back to the leather football helmets era argument again. Actually, the all-time series lead is only “double digits” at 10 if you include Georgia’s win over Florida Agricultural College in 1904.
Florida has won more of the games played since 1939. But yes, Georgia has won the last three!
1939? Lol…
My grandson says 3 and oh…
How I really see this game is what CDM said,”we’re only 7 points behind”
Can’t wait to place these puppies where they belong and have been for a quarter of a century.
Gators, remember Mac beat them so CDM has targeted them now. SOS is right down the hall from CDM. This year, if the season is played, will clearly be an awakening for our disillusioned friends to the north. Their recruiting machine is just that a recruiting machine with nothing to show for the millions spent.
40 years of nothing but talk and the dust gathering ever deeper in that trophy case.
40 years of nothing, hmm? In that time we’ve won four SEC Titles and eight divisional titles. Not to mention many of the big bowls.
I guess that’s “nothing” to a team that didn’t win one single conference in 100 years of playing organized football. While we would have loved to win a national title during that time, only a true moron would call SEC Titles “nothing.” That you’re a ‘turd seals it.
As far as being “seven points behind,” man, does that statement lack any semblance of context and nuance and common sense (much like your “nothing” statement).
Fact is, you were two TDs behind in the fourth quarter when your “genius” coach Sideshow Dan the Clown played right into Kirby’s hands by going on an 8 minute drive against a soft defense. Even Gus Bus was able to defeat that prevent tactic and score quickly. Not MuLLLen, though.
Keep telling yourself fairytales if it makes you feel better.
Just for the record, In that same 40 year period, Florida has seven SEC titles, 12 division titles and three national championships.
As for fairy tales, the myth that Kirby played a soft defense in the fourth quarter (and misuse of the term “prevent” defense) continues to be hilarious. Had Kirby been in a true prevent defense, Florida would have likely scored much faster. Use some common sense.
Exactly! Facts and achievements fail their minds
In my grandson’s 4 year history Kirby has 3 divisions (12 in 40, that’s all?) 1 conference (7 in 40, that’s all?) and 1 Florida natty equivalent first round CFP win (3 in 40, that’s all?) My grandson’s head coach of choice has never lost to Florida’s current one but he does know what CFP stands for, btw…
Well, I would say the brainwashing is coming along just fine with your grandson.
Well humper are you down to a 4 year timeframe for bragging rights? You guys keep moving the goalposts and keep coming short
So close! I had Sideshow Dan the Clown, MuLLLet, and ‘turd. Only “Needed 24-17” or “Chump” for Troll Bingo.
We have a winner. Mic drop.
LOL
Dang bro you be some stupid troll. Your 40 year history is nothing to brag about compared to the Gators.
You have been taken to the woodshed and don’t even know what hit you
@Marshgator89 What I can tell you is in 4 yrs of head coaching Kirby smart has way more hardware than your coach has in 13 years 2 schools but he’s the better coach who in the hell is going to believe that with a straight face.I for one thinks Kentucky coach is a better coach than Dan Mullen but that’s just me he’s a good coach but the hype for him and the gators is greatly overblown in my opinion if they don’t beat UGA this year what will your excuse be for all the gator fans you have to win that game I’m glad the pressures all on you now even better for Kirby and the boys
@Georgia Boi912, I’m just curious how much “hardware” you think Kirby would have won as head coach at Mississippi State during the years Mullen coached there. When will Georgia fans ever stop using that meaningless analogy.
He still would have a hell of a lot more than Dan Mullen cause he’s just a beater coach and better recruiter stop making Excuses for the man just because he’s your coach he hasn’t won anything in 13 years as a head coach not even a freaking division title.If your team is good enough to become number one in the country I’m sure they’re good enough to at least win the division he just didn’t get it done facts are facts
If you think Kirby would have won the SEC West at Mississippi State you are truly delusional.
Uhh Nash…JACKIE SHERRILL did…
Humper, yeah in a different century
Kirby is a better recruiter than Dan or Jackie…he would have won at least one, 3 other teams besides Alabama have…
Not during Nick Saban’s run at Alabama, he didn’t. Come on, Leghumper. Don’t be ridiculous.
I knew Dawg fans were delusional, but this talk of Kirby winning more at MSU takes it to a level I never thought I’d see. This is pure comedy.
“Leghumper don’t be ridiculous”
Sorry but that train left the station long ago
Do you understand what apples and oranges mean?
The real comparison is Kirby 4 years at UGA and Mullen 2 at UF.
You silly dummy
No, the real comparison is head to head…2 years vs 2 years is apple to apple, let’s compare the last 2, whatcha got?
Actually, the only comparison that would be somewhat valid is Mullen’s first two years at a major program versus Kirby’s first two years at Georgia. And even that wouldn’t be completely valid because Kirby took over a better roster.
Leghumper wrong again and Nash right on. If you want to compare it’s the first two years.
Or like it’s been reported before: Nash intelligent, Humper Moron
Wtf is wrong with you jones? Why so nasty all the time…go get laid for Christmassake…
Nash, wouldn’t Mullets two first years at a major program be CowBellHell? I DuckDuckGo’d major program and all the SEC programs (minus vandy) popped up… so by all means let’s do compare first 2 years.
BTW Vandy DID pop up when I changed the search to major baseball programs…UF popped up when searched best prisoner release program btw…
Sure Leghumper. Everybody knows MSU is a football blue blood program.
Oh, my bad, I was pretty sure you said major program…
Pretty sure our coach understands how to use pressure to his advantage. He came into the SEC as a northern football coach with Meyer from Utah’s system and began an offensive juggernaut down the throats of blue blood programs established.
Then went to frigging Starkville Mississippi and turned a Sylvester Croom program from hoping to stay in the game program to a bowl seeking program.
I think he’s a lot better than your Kirby. Disagree if you want. Time will tell on this one. Kirbys time is up and you have to know it.
The day he got there he’s spent more money than any other schools athletic dept on recruiting only to go to a National championship with RICHT’s recruits! Since then, back up on baaack!
Great expectations court Great Disappointment .
In other words, Georgia less with more and Kirby recruiting national championships fail to bring home the big one.
You gotta simplify things for the folk from Athens
Concerning your reference of “we’re only 7 pts behind,” that’s a fine mentality to take, but ultimately means nothing. It’s weak and if you admit it to yourself, you’ll recognize how weak it is and that it really means nothing.
Richt was plenty close in a number of games throughout his 15 yr tenure in Athens. Of his 8 losses before the wheels fell off in the 2014 game and his firing the following year, 5 of those 8 were less than 7 pts. The other 3 included his one and only game against spurrier and the two games in 08 – 09 where UGA got the doors kicked in.
Your 2nd paragraph wreaks even more of the dawg fan’s mentality of hope and drawn conclusions during the richt era.
This rivalry has shifted…UGA is going into the game expecting to win and get the breaks, while UF is hoping to not lose and to catch the breaks.
No, the rivalry shifted when Mullen became coach at UF and set National Championship aspirations.
How long are you guys going to tolerate getting “recruiting national championships” while still coming short of a NC? Seems like the Kirby MO
So, the rivalry shifted with Mullen going 0-2 in the rivalry? Your lone example leads to the interpretation that the rivalry is in UGA’s favor….not UF’s.
Who’s tolerating recruiting national championships? I’m simply discussing the UGA-UF rivalry and that it’s not as close as what marshgator suggested.
The rivalry shifted??? Lol…Mac beat UGa 2 out of 3, won the east 2 out of 3…and the rivalry shifted when Mullet took over…sure CO, let’s go with that…Personally I love this shift, may we never shift back.
Well Humper you shut down TheRicker’s theory that the rivalry shifted when Kirby was hired. Bigmac, Vandy and other lesser opponents took care of Kirby in his inaugural season and then less talented teams like Texas and USCjr derailed his following seasons. Once UF beats him what you gonna do. It will look really bad for you with that huge talent gap and all
It won’t look bad for me personally, I’ve got an unopened bottle of Macallan 30 year old, I’ll be fine…good luck this year as the perennial East Champ to be…lots of pressure living up to higher expectations…not to mention by year 3 Todd Grantham’s defenses have historically gotten worse…but I’m sure y’all will be fine…best QB in the SEC and all, y’all got this. Cheers palley
So now Corch is into the Blue Chip Ratio. So here’s the funny mathematical thing about the BCR: Once you’ve hit around 52% BCR, an opponent’s higher BCR ratio doesn’t matter that much.
Let me explain.
Once you have a 52% BCR, you theoretically have elite players (4-stars or better) across your two deep. (22 x 2)/85 = 52%. (As an aside, kickers, punters and long snappers are almost always rated 3-stars or less, so they don’t matter in this calculation.) Obviously, this assumes balanced recruiting and it’s never going to be perfectly accurate.
So an opponent that’s stacking up elite talent (Alabama, Georgia, Ohio State) north of a 70% BCR isn’t really gaining a proportional advantage over an opponent with elite 1s and 2s across the board. Because many of those guys — regardless of their talent rating — are 3s who won’t see the field in a given year.
Perfect example? LSU’s 2019 BCR was 55%. Georgia’s was 67%.
Leghumper would likely argue that the percentage of top 100 elite players makes a difference, but it doesn’t seem to. Probably because a non-trivial number of top 100 guys don’t play to their ratings. Transcendent players make a difference (Watson, Tebow), but they are few and far between.
For those of you keeping score at home, Florida’s 2020 BCR should be 58%. Georgia’s should be 79%. These figures do not include recent elite, non-senior transfers like Justin Shorter and J.T. Daniels, who may not receive waivers. These figures also do not include 3-stars who have demonstrated an elite level of play, like Kyle Trask for Florida and Eric Stokes for Georgia.
Also, if you’re doing your own counts, 247’s 4-star floor is not 0.90. It’s 0.8901 (i.e., > 0.89).
So to summarize, in Georgia fan-speak, once a team’s BCR exceeds about 52%, any real or imagined “gap” don’t matter much.
It matters on the 3 deep..lol
Need 66 bcrs at 22 different positions to qualify, excluding special teams. There’s your gap…
There may be a coherent thought hidden behind this comment, but I can’t figure out what it is.
Nash…He’s using “Fuzzy-Math”…not Reality & Facts.
“So now Corch is into the Blue Chip Ratio. So here’s the funny mathematical thing about the BCR: ….” words, words, stuff, meaning, yada. Corch is not a Vulcan and will not appreciate logic. He is from Planet Masengill and your structured thoughts and coherent arguments have no effect.
“Arrowflight, You are now at the the bottom of the totem pole for Uncle TDOW chasers” – TheDawgsofWar June, 2020
Arrow, tdow has millions he doesn’t have to think anymore. He says it, therefore it’s real.
Also, if you’re doing your own counts, 247’s 4-star floor is not 0.90. It’s 0.8901 (i.e., > 0.89)…..
So Nash, you do know that .890 is closer to the unranked not top 1000 .854 line than it is to the .956 top 100 rank don’t ya? Heck, here’s a great idea, let’s call TOP 1000 BCRs…that way everyone is elite and every Div 1 team (except Vandy) is +52% and in CFP discussion…deal?
“ corch is not a Vulcan and will not appreciate logic” and “TDOW has millions and doesn’t have to think anymore“
You guys are killing me
LOL
Leghumper, what I know is that you’re engaging in distraction and making a reductio ad absurdum argument.
And incidentally, the top 100 cutoff changes from year to year based upon the 100th guy’s rating. Over the last few years, it’s ranged from 0.952 to 0.956.
But as I’ve said before, I don’t think ratings precision means much.
Nash – Latin. Stop. It doesn’t translate well to this audience. Try single syllable words.
Surprised you’re back so soon Arrow, I figured you were still cooking gator with Adam…
Uhhhh Nash? You do know that whether it’s .952 or .956 your reducto whatchamajig .891 is still closer to .854 don’t cha? I can get a UF grad Jefro Bodine to do the guzzintas for you if you want…
Leg – you’d think. It’s a bit chewy for my taste.
Leghumper, I can handle the guzzintas just fine.
Arrowflight, you’re killing me today. I’ve been laughing out loud at my desk.
I know what ya mean Arrow, some people say gator taste like chicken but I find grilled and stewed gator to be very artificial and overrated, much like possum, and when I have to much of it causes delusion and constipation. I have found that if you deep fry it in good ol Georgia peanut oil, it becomes quite tender, soft and palatable…look for peanut oil with a freshness date of November 1st, it seems to work the best, I find the BCR Brand best but make sure it says high 4&5Star approved on the label, 3&4Star approved is less costly but leaves a disappointing after taste. You’re welcome…
Interesting. Didn’t know that ‘possum was one of your dietary staples. Guessing you get those from the road rather than Publix?
Swore off Publix once they started charging for crablegs…
Nash, “ding…fries are up!”
Has had me laughing for days. Arrow sense of humor mirrors you’re patience. Lol
Marsh, and he starts strong out of the gate this morning. Arrow is definitely in the zone.
But I’d settle for 22 TOP 100s
Your mistake is to address this to corch. A well written, clear explanation with some math to boot is way over his pay grade. Best to go with Moron or stupid obnoxious troll, those are things he understands and can relate to
Give it a rest, let’s talk football
You are the one who needs to slow down, you post here more often than most Gator fans
I do, and I don’t understand why that’s a problem, it is a public forum. SDS lives matter for Christmassake! Besides, I certainly enjoy exchanging barbs with Nash and the boys, used to enjoy throwing em around with you, but for goodness sake the incessant name calling…you’ve taken a certain bama fan’s crest to a whole nother level…you should get with Robert Kraft and go get an asian massage or sumpin, you seem tense palley.
Does it hurt your feelings when someone reminds you that you’re a Piece if sh!t, Dumba$& troll dawgblowerU?
Remember it’s a public forum…
It’s also funny you’re crying about name calling. Your posts are littered with name calling. Mullet, Jumbo and you even called FSU spearchunkerU… You may find your stupid name calling remarks of coaches, fans and teams Funny but most probably don’t and someone actually took offense to your spearchunkerU comment….
CO
Interesting, I never said who the Bama fan was…
Say what you will BT, while I’ll admit on occasion I have failed in the personal name calling (and for that I apologize) I try really hard to not call fellow posters on this thread disparaging names, however I’ve never claimed rival teams and coaches are off limits. Mullet is a mullet, Saban has a deal with Satan and Brewhaha builds really crappy walls…thanks for visiting.
It’s still name calling. You don’t occasionally fail. Most of your posts are addressing someone or something by other than its name…
Don’t cry about it now dumba$&..
Let me think about it…I’ll get back with you. Thanks BT. I love our inspirational chats.
It’s worth the time to point out how a dumba$& troll is crying about someone doing the same thing that you’re doing in most your posts…
I mean it is a public forum and all..
That’s true BT, glad I was able to ease your life burden a tad…you’re welcome.
But has Mullen recruited in a balanced manner? Kirby did not in his 2017 and 2018 classes, which sorely lacked impact pass catchers, and it burned us badly. I question whether or not Mullen has achieved a better scale of balance across his roster yet with regard to blue chips, particularly at the o-line and RB positions. Kirby still hasn’t raised his DL recruiting to the standard of say, his OL or DB recruiting.
Walker, Stackhouse, Davis, Carter, Norton? Pretty good group of catchups imho
Walker and Carter, yes, but very young. If he keeps finding diamonds in the rough like Davis, then yippee. Norton hasn’t really materialized yet and Stackhouse is also young. Mostly thinking about the 2017-18 classes with regards to both the DL and WR recruiting.
Kirby was only a sophomore coach back then, he’s figuring it out. Dabo lost 5 straight to his ClemGooberU nemesis CootU before he started figuring things out, I’m thinking Kirby is ahead of that learning curve somewhat…
Mullen’s recruiting has been pretty well balanced. We can do qualitatively better at running back but the numbers are good and I think we’ll be in good shape if Lorenzo Lingard is healthy.
Florida has 16 scholarship offensive linemen for 2020; 15 is the typical target (Georgia is at 15 for 2020).
Wrong answer, try again…24 counting ALL scholarship types minus a couple preferred walkons. Our practice squad is also 2 deep in top 1000 bcrs
Silly rabbit. Trix are for kids!
(I just felt like saying that. It has about as much relevance as your comment and is almost as silly.)
How many of the o-linemen are top 250 guys though?
Good question Kirb…haven’t done the back count but I imagine Mullet’s got a few more, I hear he’s been killing it the last two gap closing cycles.
Nash, I think blue n gray shirt scholarship are relevant to your 16 total scholarship number…maybe they aren’t full rides but they indeed are scholarships, yes?
Kirby, more of the Georgia offensive linemen are top 250, but Florida’s talent level has been increasing in each of the last two recruiting classes that it is now good enough to withstand key starter injuries. Incidentally, while it’s a different subject for another day, I’ve long suspected there is high school player ratings inflation within the state of Georgia.
Leghumper, no. I’m only concerned with the 85 full scholarship limit and the players within that group. Having a bunch of extra guys for your practice squad does not add meaningful value. And the occasional walk-on/non-scholarship scholarship diamond in the rough who turns into a starter is a rare bird indeed.
While we’re on the subject, this is precisely why the 85 scholarship limit is used to calculate measures like BCR or the 247 Composite roster rankings. If you used the headcount of every kid on the team, the percentages and scores would not be apples-to-apples. And if you used actual scholarships other than 85 it would also not be apples to apples. This is your cue for a joke about apples.
Georgia has some of the toughest, most physical high school football regions in the country. Their draft production speaks for itself year in and year out. To suggest there is some sort of “ratings inflation” that is given to Georgia high school athletes sounds absurd and I would love to hear your basis for that another day, perhaps when the 247 composite is updated.
Before I start this breakdown of the offensive side of the ball, let me be clear–talent is not a standalone, independent success guarantee, as we’re all aware (cough Kentucky vs Michigan cough). However, a better o-line will be key to UF’s 2020 season, so let us begin.
It’s a holiday Friday and I’m bored. Plus, this subject has interested me for a while since I don’t know much about it. I’m basically comparing the offensive roster talent for UGA and Florida and seeing who has an on-paper advantage at each position.
Starting off with the OL:
1) Florida has six 4-star offensive lineman on their roster currently. Just one, Richard Gouraige, is a top 100 recruit. 3 of the Florida OL blue chippers are underclassmen, 3 are upperclassmen.
In comparison, UGA has three 5-star OL and eight 4 stars on their roster currently. Seven of the eleven were top 100 recruits. 4 are upperclassmen, seven are underclassmen.
On paper, one would give the advantage to UGA, but the caveat here is that they only bring back one returning starter. Combine this with the lack of spring practice and I would count this position group matchup as an even split.
Next up: tight ends.
Florida has three 4 star TEs on their roster. Keon Zippere was just outside the top 100 (#104), but since he was the #2 TE in the 2019 class we might as well put him in that top 100 range anyway.
UGA has two 4 star TEs and one 5 star. Only the 5 star (Washington) ranked in the top 100. Kyle Pitts’ exception 2019 season and the dearth of returning experience plus past underwhelming performances at the position for UGA gives the Gators a significant advantage at this position group.
Next up: RBs. Oh dear.
Florida has two 4 stars and the former 5 star Lorenzo Lingard. The latter is the only former top 100 recruit on the roster.
UGA has four 4 stars and 1 former 5 star. 3 of the 5 were former top 100 recruits.
I’m assuming both Lingard and White fully recover from their past injuries and live up to their respective recruiting projections. Given Florida’s absolute dearth of depth at the position and UGA’s usual offensive centering around it, the Dawgs win this battle pretty easily.
Next up: wide receivers.
Florida has just two former 4 stars at the position: Grimes and Copeland. Both were former top 100 recruits and both are upperclassmen.
Georgia has nine former 4 stars and two former 5 stars at the position. Six of the eleven were ranked as top 100 recruits.
This is where I’m heavily factoring in age, experience, and past production. Although Florida seems dangerously thin (which they are to a degree), there are a few things to take into account: the only truly consistent, experienced targets UGA is bringing back are Pickens and Blaylock. The rest are either inexperienced youngsters or injury-hampered players who haven’t been able to string it together yet. (a la Bush or Robertson). Factor in the fact that Pitts was the leading receiver for Florida last year and Toney has certainly lived up to a 4 star ranking, IMO Florida wins this group heading into the season.
I’m skipping QBs because both of the starters were former 3-stars, there’s literally no rotation unless Mullen or Smart are awkwardly inserting Jones or Fields, and that position is too hotly debated for me to have a steady opinion on it.
The offensive side of the ball is done and we have the OL as a draw, Florida with the edge at TE and WR, and UGA with a resounding edge at RB.
If this piqued your interest enough, I can post the defensive side of the ball as well.
That’s a really good and unbiased assessment, Kirb…by all means let’s talk defense…
Kirby, I don’t have a huge disagreement with your analysis, but — especially with respect to wide receivers and running backs — your analysis highlights my main observation about the 52% BCR threshold and the diminishing returns from each additional increment of BCR.
Clearly, Georgia has the higher rated offensive line. But the key question isn’t whether Georgia’s O-line is better. It’s whether Florida’s O-line is good enough. I believe it will be.
Of Georgia’s 11 receivers ranked as elite, only three can be on the field at one time. Florida puts two top 100 guys plus Kadarius Toney on the field. With a couple of elite true freshmen in the wings.
At tight end, Pitts will be a consensus All-American.
Georgia always has great running backs. But typically these days, only one at a time is going to be on the field, with one other seeing meaningful playing time. Florida has a hopefully healthy Lingard and Dameon Pierce is a very solid running back. Malik Davis was magical in his true freshman season but hasn’t been the same since his injuries. Whether he can be again remains to be seen.
I’m sure Georgia’s defense is superior on paper too. But the same general arguments apply. Again, Georgia was superior to LSU on paper in every way last year, including at the quarterback position. Didn’t matter.
As for my comment about Georgia high school player ratings, it’s just a vague suspicion. The underlying reason for the suspicion is the number of players per 100,000 population. But I just checked this and Louisiana actually ranks #1 in that metric (Georgia is #2… Alabama, Florida and Maryland are #3, #4 and #5 respectively) so maybe it’s no big deal. It would be interesting to look at state by state outcomes (ratings vs. the draft).
“number of players” in the last paragraph should be “number of elite players.”
Lol, I agree Nash, number of players should say number of ELITE players, but we are talking Mullet’s Florida after all…you got it right the first time…touché? Happy 4th compadre.
Hey Kirby your analysis is fine with me but why skip the QB position by saying “both starters are 3 star players “ thus making them equivalent. Not all players 3 star or otherwise play to their star ranking. Trask has not and that’s why
UF has a huge advantage at QB.
I’m counting Jones in the mix as well who is the best and most experienced backup QB in the league
I skipped the QB discussion because depth is only important in the case of an injury, the potential of both starters is a hotly debated topic, and there’s still a slight possibility that JT Daniels receives a waiver and takes Newman’s job, or Emory finally gets it together and takes Trask’s job in a shocker, etc.
RB depth is very crucial, Nash, though probably more so for UGA’s offense than Florida. Although I fully expect UF’s abysmal rushing attack to have resounding improvements this year, I think you’re still projecting a little too much to say their room is equal with UGA’s. I could do the same with the OL or something else and I don’t want to. IMO “good enough” isn’t the kind of metric a team with playoff hopes should be asking for. Discussing an all-time great offense with a miracle QB in a conference championship game is very different from this topic, which is my assessment of whose position groups have the edge on paper heading into the season.
Finally, I try to stay away from touting freshmen as immmediate difference makers for a position group as you are Henderson and the other WR, or else I could try factoring in Jones into the starting OL argument, or Dexter and Carter into the DL argument, or Ringo into the DB argument, etc etc.
PS–I also think the quality of your WR room should be ascertained far beyond your starting 3. That being said, Florida’s overwhelming edge in returning, proven production easily overcomes any potential depth concerns if injuries do arise and hence gives them a marked edge over UGA in that regard.
Kirby, I did not say Florida’s running back room was “equal” with UGA’s. However, I do think it could be similar at three deep if Lingard and Davis have fully recovered. You probably know how I feel about the precise accuracy of ratings; I consider White and Lingard a wash. Davis was rated as a high 3-star for some inexplicable reason, but finished as the all-time leading rusher in Hillsborough County (the Tampa metro area). He was phenomenal in his trues freshman year before he got hurt. Dameon Pierce is a very solid workhorse running back.
If I have a question about Florida’s running backs, it’s catching the ball out of the backfield. We just haven’t seen it from these guys yet. We also need to see how Pierce does at picking up blitzes.
On the wide receivers, one could argue that a true freshman was Georgia’s best receiver last year. I don’t think Xzavier Henderson will be Florida’s best receiver in 2020 but I think he’s really good, that he’ll play meaningful snaps, and that he replaces Tyrie Cleveland’s ability to take the top off of a defense. There’s also a good chance that true freshman Jaquavion Fraziars leapfrogs the second group of wide receivers on the depth chart.
When I say “good enough” it’s relative. Just to be clear, I mean good enough to get to the SEC Championship. I think Florida’s offense can play at a championship level in 2002. I’m currently more concerned about our safeties. I think that could be our weakness.
2020. Jeez, I wish they would allow for editing.
Sorry Kirby but there’s no debate about the potential of Kyle Trask unless you’re talking about how much better he can be his second year as a starter. I understand your guy’s potential is debatable and that’s why we have a big edge at the QB position. Even in JT gets a waiver same thing applies since he hasn’t played that much. Incidentally it is telling that you give JT the starting job over Newman right away, so all the Newman hype is just hype.
Oh and the backup QB is only important in case of injury. Yep that’s why he’s very important and we have the best backup QB in the SEC, another reason our QB situation is a big advantage
1) Trask’s ability is most certainly up for debate. 2) I am not penciling in Daniels as the presumed starter over Newman if he gets a waiver, but only brought up that possibility since he’s a former 5-star recruit and you apparently think Newman is bound for disaster. 3) If Jones failed to win the starting job over Feleipe Franks and Kyle Trask, are you sure he’s absolutely the best backup QB in the conference?
Nash, thanks for the clarification–I get what you’re saying with regards to Henderson, but I would still emphasize that I don’t like factoring in projections of a true freshman’s potential into the strength of a position group heading into the season. Georgia signed 3 top 100 receivers compared to Florida’s 1, but I’m not silly enough to think all 3 will have an immediate, game changing impact.
Trasks ability is up for debate? Trask’s 2019 season stats speak for themselves. His numbers only trailed 2 guys who went in the first round of the draft.
I don’t think Newman is bound for disaster I just think all the Heisman hype and such is asinine for a middle of the road ACC QB. Deep down Georgia fan feels the same since they all pencil in Daniels as the starter if he gets a waiver.
Jones hasn’t won the starting gig due to circumstance, like how good Trask turned out to be. However he has meaningful game experience, much more so than any other backup QB in the SEC and in fact more game experience than some projected starters like Myles Brennan.
UF has the best QB room in the SEC based on game experience
One additional thing about Florida’s wide receivers. Meyer/Mullen wouldn’t/won’t play a receiver who doesn’t learn the playbook and demonstrate the willingness and ability to block downfield.
I must admit I am a great admirer and firm believer in the importance of downfield blocking. Guys like Javon Wims and Terry Godwin were key to UGA’s potent 2017-18 rushing offenses. To better explain my viewpoint on that topic, I suggest the following twitter account: “Three Year Letterman” @3yearletterman.
I can actually agree with him for once
Finebaum stated his opinion and the usual suspects in the red and black get all bent out of shape. Funny thing is that all Gators know we have to beat Georgia to get where we want to be but the pressure is all on the flea infested mutts. With all the talk about the huge talent gap and all the recruiting national championships if they don’t win they are in deep trouble. We are only entering our third season with Mullen and he’s still on honeymoon mode
To be honest, the gap shrinking talk is mostly found in the Florida articles section of SDS…we’re too focused on trying to catch up with Bama…
Ole’ devil Sherman’s curse seems bound with us forever on that one.
I miss the riots, surely they could have tore down ALL the Sherman and Grant statues down by now to kill the kurse…
“We’re too focused on trying to catch up with Bama…”
Ah, if only that were true.
One bcr behind…how bout y’all?
It. Doesn’t. Matter.
Wait Humper, you criticize Mullen for never winning the West while at MSU, but here you are claiming “we’re too focused on trying to catch up with Bama” a team you’ve never beaten with a team 5 deep with 5 star talent? Interesting! Sorry, but with the way Smart has been recruiting over the last 5 years, they’ve caught up to Bama, they just can’t beat them, nor can they beat LSU. You’re right in your previous comment though, Smart would’ve won at least one division title at MSU LOL!!
Mullen didn’t even catch up to Auburn or TAMU at MSU, let alone Bama. Get a life.
You’re right Joe, Mullet had so much less talent than Arky, SC, Ole Ms, Mizzou, Kent and even earlier versions of MSSt…don’t know what I was thinking…
5 deep with 5 star talent. I like it and may borrow it in future counter trolling posts
That’s exactly what I said, Georgia fan believes they are so much more talented than anyone else with an insurmountable talent gap that will keep growing forever. That’s why the losses to puny USCjr and overated Texas stung so much and the loss to Florida will be so deflating.
BTW according to the well known ambassador of the University in Athens, DumbsOfWar, Kirby will field a team just as talented or even more, than Saban’s in 2020. Besides some other very smart puppy nation representatives have claimed they are on the level of the Bamas, Clemsons and OSU of the world. So you are way behind the times saying you are trying to catch up to Bama when the cream of Georgia fandom swears you are already there
I’m pretty sure you predicted a UGA loss to Florida last year. Would you like to discuss that? Additionally, no, UGA will not be fielding an equally talented team to Bama this season, as the latter has an 83% BCR and the former an 82. Factor in the home-field advantage and how much of the blue chippers are starters with experience, plus returning QB, OL, WR, and RB, and the Dawgs have a pretty tall obstacle to overcome in Tuscaloosa.
God only knows what Alabama would do to Florida if they played them, though.
Kirb, bro, I don’t predict single game scores or W/L. I did feel good about our chances last year and so did several analysts for whatever it’s worth not much to discuss.
I didn’t say it was you but more than one of your famous half brothers have been saying you guys are on the same level as Bama, Clemson and OSU. It’s been posted on this site on different articles.
I agree with you that is a very dumb claim, just like bragging about all the recruiting national championships. Keep bragging and failing to win the big one only makes you look dumber
Have you finalized your travel plans for November yet?
JTF this year I’m staying home and plan on watching the game. Not a good time to travel right now
My message to PF..”lay off the sauce!”
Fine aim is sauce with glasses.
I believe the East is Florida’s to Lose this year. The Cocktail-Party, as usual, is a Big One. With a New Offensive Coordinator, New Quarterback(s), No Spring Ball, New Offensive Line…The Dawgs have some holes to fill. Sorry Dawg Fans but all the above is true.