Can Georgia win a national title with old-school defense and running game?
It feels like the college football world in the Playoff era collectively zigged while Georgia zagged.
Or maybe the better way to portray Georgia’s throwback style compared to the rest of the elite teams is by use of phones.
Georgia is still rocking a landline while other teams have the iPhone 11. The landline works. The call quality is never in question, you always know where it’s gonna be and it gets the job done. But it doesn’t have all the capabilities of the iPhone 11. It’s not going to keep you updated on all your social media and there’s no such thing as “portrait mode” on a landline. Both are, in the end, phones. If your goal is to call your mom in another state, she’s not gonna care/notice if you’re calling her on a landline or the iPhone 11.
The national championship won’t necessarily be rewarded to a team because it has the modern offense. It’ll be rewarded to the team who has the most points come Jan. 13, 2020.
What’s not in question is if Georgia has the modern offense. It doesn’t. What everyone wants to know is if that’s a prerequisite to win a national championship.
After all, we’re talking about a game in which the winning team had these point totals in the championship game during the 2010s decade (by season):
- 2010 Auburn: 22
- 2011 Alabama: 21
- 2012 Alabama: 42
- 2013 Florida State: 34
- 2014 Ohio State: 42
- 2015 Alabama: 45
- 2016 Clemson: 35
- 2017 Alabama: 26
- 2018 Clemson: 44
That’s an average of 35 points per championship game for the winner. In the Playoff era, it’s an average of 38 points. Georgia scored 31 points against a Power 5 team once this year, and that was against a Tennessee team who had a true freshman quarterback in his first career start.
Take a look closer and you’ll see that it’s not just that national champs are putting up big offensive numbers on the scoreboard. It’s how they’re doing it. Look at the passing lines of each winning quarterback in the title game during the Playoff era:
- 2014 Ohio State: Cardale Jones — 16-23, 242 passing yards, 1 TD
- 2015 Alabama: Jake Coker — 16-25, 335 passing yards, 2 TDs
- 2016 Clemson: Deshaun Watson — 36-56, 420 passing yards, 3 TDs
- 2017 Alabama: Tua Tagovailoa (only played in second half) — 14-24, 166 passing yards, 3 TDs
- 2018 Clemson: Trevor Lawrence — 20-32, 347 passing yards, 3 TDs
That’s an average of 20.4 completions on 32 pass attempts for 302 yards and 2.4 passing touchdowns. Fromm hasn’t hit that 302-mark since 2017 against Mizzou, though he did have that 301-yard performance against Alabama in the SEC Championship last year. But that was obviously with a different play-caller and different receivers.
Fromm, as many know, doesn’t have a 300-yard game this year, and his first 3-touchdown game of the season came this past Saturday against Auburn.
But does that matter? Like D’Andre Swift said, this is the offense. Georgia is in the top 4 in the Playoff poll even though it ranks No. 80 in passing (every other top 10 team ranks in the top half of the country in passing offense). With a rotating offensive line, the Dawgs have the No. 25 rushing attack in the country.
Georgia’s average of 38.4 rushes per game actually trails the likes of Playoff contenders like Ohio State (46.7) and Clemson (39.8). So does that mean this is just an overblown narrative? Not exactly. Even though Georgia actually averages more pass attempts per game than Ohio State and isn’t that far off from Clemson, it’s the structure of the offense that’s in question. Both Clemson and Ohio State play in spread-it-out, up-tempo offenses with mobile quarterbacks who put up big numbers this year. Fromm is in a much different situation.
The concern with that is obvious. What happens if Georgia falls behind by a couple of scores against one of these high-powered offenses? It’s no longer a question of whether Fromm is ready to throw the ball 30 times to win a game. It’s can you actually trust this Georgia passing game to do the heavy lifting given how conservative the play-calling has been and considering how inexperienced these receivers are.
If LSU jumps out to a 21-0 lead in Atlanta, the amount of “ballgame” tweets will be off the charts.
But at the same time, that was true when Georgia went up 21-0 at Auburn (myself included). Just like it’s far-fetched to think of Georgia suddenly rallying back and overcoming a tough start with the way the offense is built, it’s far-fetched to think of anyone scoring that much against this Georgia defense.
It’s time to seriously consider the possibility that Georgia is going to beat LSU.
— Dan Wolken (@DanWolken) November 17, 2019
No team has hit the 20-point mark against Georgia in a regulation game this year (South Carolina got to 20 thanks to 2 overtimes and a pick-6). Some would argue that’s mostly because Georgia basically hasn’t faced a quality quarterback since Ian Book 2 months ago. Others would argue that’s more to do with how relentless the Dawgs are in space, and the fact that it took 590 minutes of football for a team to score a rushing touchdown against them is proof of that.
Here’s the worrisome thing for Georgia. It’s not that teams like LSU and Ohio State haven’t faced elite passing defenses. LSU still hit 42 points against Florida and Alabama, both of whom sandwich Georgia in the national pass defense rankings. Though it is worth noting that Florida and Alabama were dealing with major injuries in the front 7 while Auburn, with its throwback defense, actually had the best formula to slow down LSU of anybody.
Ohio State, meanwhile, faced a pair of defenses currently in the top 10 in pass defense and would theoretically have faced 4 top 20 passing defenses by the time a potential Georgia matchup rolled around in the Playoff.
Perhaps, though, the zag would be the fly in the ointment. That is, those teams are so used to playing styles somewhat similar to their own that Georgia throws them out of rhythm. In a weird way, Georgia’s offense can be like the 2019 version of the service academy team who everyone dreads playing. It’s not often teams like LSU and Ohio State actually have to make key tackles for 4 quarters. Obviously we’re talking about a Georgia team with far more talent and size than a service academy team, not to mention one who has been in this spot before.
Maybe the better comp for 2019 Georgia is 2017 Alabama. That defensively-dominant team with Jalen Hurts was extremely limited in the passing game in Brian Daboll’s offense. Like Fromm, Hurts had difficulties trusting his young wideouts when they couldn’t get separation. The defense and running game fueled that team up until it stared at that dreaded 2-score deficit against Georgia at halftime in the national championship. It took Alabama turning the offense over to a superior downfield passer like Tagovailoa for that path to change.
That’s not my way of saying history will repeat itself and Stetson Bennett IV is going to lead a second-half comeback for the ages to clinch a national title for Georgia, but oh my goodness what madness that would be. That Alabama team had a formula. It also had limits. The same appears to be true of this Georgia team, but unlike 2017 Alabama, there’s not another option to turn to if that formula fails in the first half of a win-or-go-home game.
Again, this is the offense.
Georgia has earned the right to essentially have a Playoff quarterfinal matchup. Beating 3 consecutive top 4 teams en route to a national championship by following that old-school formula seems lofty, but who knows? There are worse qualities to have than a relentless defense with a smash-mouth offense.
Landlines aren’t extinct yet.
Good article. From rewatching games, and listening to other opinions there’s a few things that are missing from this Georgia offense that if they otherwise had, might be a big difference in the output.
There’s no Elite Number 2 in the backfield. Herrien is good, Zamir should be great (fingers crossed), McIntosh looks primed to have a great career, and Cook should be used more in space. But there’s no near equal to Swift who you can hand it off to and have good faith eventually something spectacular will happen (hence Swift’s uptick in carries). I know, it’s rare to have two elites, but the way the offense is run….it’s what you need. Our offense was poor against Auburn, but guess who still had over 100 yards rushing?
There’s no veteran receivers (outside of Cager) who not only knows how to run crisp routes, but also know where to be in space when they can’t get separation (i.e. coming back to the ball, or leaking out down the field) which we saw a LOT of last year. There’s no reason Fromm has 5-6 seconds to throw and he can’t get it to anyone.
I truly believe if Georgia had those two pieces, they could score with anyone they would face this year with this SAME conservative, boring offense. Most of the homeruns in that 2017 season came off the run. Michel/Chubb taking it to the house, or a PA deep to Ridley, Godwin, Hardman.
That being said, I don’t think they need to. I think 27 points with that defense should be enough to beat any of the playoff contenders.
If they play like they did, offensively, against UF they have a puncher’s chance. Otherwise, no.
No? They just DON’T need to play like they did against South Carolina. The offense has done enough to win, before becoming extremely conservative. Unless you’re just flat out saying Auburn’s defense is better than Georgia’s. Then ok.
3rd down vs Florida? Yes. 1st and 2nd down? Eh…
I think you bring up some great points. Definitely the first one is not one that I had considered. UGA really is lacking that “great” number 2 option. When it was Chubb and Michel, they could take turns pounding away at the defense and keep each other fresh. Herrien does a lot of things really well and when he gets in space, it’s usually a first down but not always a huge game-changing play like you would get with Michel or even Holyfield. White is having an okay year and luckily he is just third right now cause it looks like he is still getting used to playing through contact and trusting those knees. He has shown some flashes though where he looks very similar to Chubb.
As far as the receivers go, I think at this point you have to classify Jackson, Pickens, and Blaylock as “veterans”. They’ve been through 10 games and they can’t be treated like freshmen anymore. I think what’s really hurting is that Jackson missed a lot of time with his hand and Fromm didn’t have the entire offseason to work with Pickens and Blaylock and build that trust. They all run great routes, but Fromm seems a bit hesitant to pull the trigger as often as he could. When he did against Missouri, it worked out (aside form the one called back because of alignment issues)and against Auburn too. The biggest thing is that teams know they can crowd the box and play press man. That throws off all of the timing and seems to make Fromm uncomfortable. Cager is their best man-beater and Pickens is getting there, but neither guy is quite as good at beating man coverage as Hardman and Godwin were. Sometimes Fromm needs to just take the deep shot against press man and hope he gets the catch or the PI call.
I agree with all of your points. When I was saying veteran, I more so meant that you can’t count on Blaylock and Pickens, the ones I think have the elite talent to match it, to make those veteran decisions because they just don’t have the experience. I think next year you might see it in them.
I think that would be a key factor is Fromm’s decision to stay or go. If he stays, he’s going to have the best WR corps of his entire career and some real playmakers. If he goes, someone else will have to build that rapport but they will obviosuly lack some of the great tools Fromm has that would put this team in a really great spot.
@jay.cardea. I agree! I feel the UGA defense has completely gelled and grown up game after game. Our WRs have not grown as quickly as we all felt they would.
Our (UGA) defense has kept us in many games (similar to our 2017 team who went to the NCG) The difference, IMO, between our team and many others in the top 10/25, we do not have 1 or 2 playmakers – we have many!
Every week, there is improvement within the team (whether on the O or D), that is something not shared by many FBS teams.
I also feel showing “Power 5 wins” is a true attribute of a top team, since all UGA doubters state the UGA lost to SC (power 5 team) was horrendous.
Although I get the analogy that UGA has a landline while other teams have an iPhone, the analogy I typically use is LSU, UGA, and Bama all have Ferraris. Bama and LSU are driving theirs at 100 mph. UGA is driving theirs 20 mph below the speed limit. Sometimes you see them step on the gas, especially in the two minute drill. They have the capability to get big chunk pass plays and that opens up huge holes in the running game. but for whatever reason, they like to play it safe. They take a little longer to eat up the same bit of road but they are less prone to accidents and it keeps the defense fresh. Much like the SECCG last year, you can see UGA turn it on for a while, the key will be once (if) they do that and get a lead, they gotta keep that foot on the gas and go for 50 points and not just 28 and hopefully a win.
I don’t see that as a very apt analogy. If UGA could throw it like Bama and LSU, they would at least do that on occasion. They don’t. UGA doesn’t have near the receiver group of the other two. No Farrari for you.
But they do, if you read the entire post. When they are in 2 minute, they get down the field in a hurry. Watch against Notre Dame (going fast ebough that the defenders faked injuries), Florida, the second TD drive against Auburn. They do it at least once every game, when the defense knows they are going to, and they don’t. It’s not that they can’t, it’s that Kirby plays to protect his defense.
I don’t see it that way. UGA has a below average passing attack. If Kirby is just protecting the defense, he must be afraid of something.
LSUSMC, high powered fast scoring offenses tend to get off the field much quicker, leading to their defenses being on the field longer.
Kirby wants his defense to be fresher during the 4th quarter. They usually are, and it could be the difference in the outcome of the UGA-LSU SECCG.
You pegged it Tim right on the nose.
Defenses get tired a whole lot faster than the offenses do. It’s just an absolute known football fact.
He’s afraid of having UGA’s defense look like LSU’s. Loaded with great players but giving up 30+ a game.
Also the below average passing attack isn’t because they don’t have a stud throwing and studs running routes. It’s because the game-plan calls for Fromm to take dink and dumps as much as possible. They aren’t playing to their WRs strengths. They absolutely have the dude to run the same thing LSu does. They just don’t have the play designs and game-plan. Hence the analogy of driving a Ferrari 20 below. It’s not living up to it’s potential. UGA’s offense could zoom if they wanted to but you run out of gas doing that sometimes and it’s your defense that gets burned.
LSUSMC, I see where you’re going, and I agree about the receivers. LSU has the QB, receivers and I really like the starting RB. Ferrari on offense, check.
Yes, Georgia has a Ferrari.
Georgia may just have the best defense in the land. Defense is still very important for winning championships. Georgia has a very good one, LSU not so much.
It will be Ferrari vs. Ferrari with LSU’s offense facing UGA’s defense.
Next year will be Georgia’s year. Or was that last years mantra.
If Fromm returns, it may be their year. Without him, I don’t see it. UF may be able to win the East next season.
UF loses a lot next year, like 12-15 starters. And mullet hasn’t been backfilling with Blue-Chip/elite talent.
UF won’t be shabby, but they won’t make the next step either.
Having Fromm graduate may not be as bad as most people be think. Maybe Smart and company get more creative on offense out of necessity.
Kind of like when Manning left UT, they win the NC the next season, something they couldn’t do with Manning.
I like your analogy but UT also won that year because of a very stout defense and because of Clint Stoerner and the fumble heard round the world. Or McNabb missing his guy in the Syracuse game or even that FSU’s Weinke was hurt and didn’t play in the BCS title game. Everything but creativity on offense. Look how long it’s nourished them.
The key for UF is convincing our JR’s to return next year
One thing for sure, this year won’t be bama’s year.
And you still have to play AU.
Definitely not Bam’s year. That’s for sure. Way to many injuries and I’m not impressed with our coordinators. Is this what it feels like to be a Georgia fan? Just busting your chops. Regardless of what I think about any SEC team, I’ll still pull for whatever SEC team ends of in the mix.
How many times have we thought, yeah but Bama will be breaking in a new QB and Coordinators. Probably won’t be their year. McCarron, Blake Sims, Jake Coker, Jalen Hurts. I’m not really worried about the QB spot for Bama. they’ve had a taste of what an elite guy looks like back there for a little bit but that roster has carried that team without a truly elite QB before. No reason to count them out no matter who lines up back there. And next year all of the Freshmen and Sophomores will be Sophomores and Juniors. The defense might be more akin to typical Bama defenses we’ve seen.
I hope you are right. As a Bama fan, even though they have been at the top for a little bit, every year feels like we are starting over. I get nervous before the start of every year, every game, every playoff. I don’t take the success for granted.
RollTide_N_Colorado
It “feels” great to be a Georgia BullDawg.
In 2015 bama dirt-stomped UGA in Athens, barely beat Ga Southern in OT and played in (and barely won) the Taxslayer Bowl with an interim coaching staff. Kind of like what Bama was going through until Saban showed up.
Since then 43 year-old Kirby Smart has come home and we have won 3 SECE Titles, an SEC Championship, played for a 2nd SEC Championship and lost a NC in overtime. The 2 times UGA has played bama under Kirby, bama has had to come from behind to win. We beat OU in what has been called the greatest Rose Bowl game ever and have signed 3 top-3 recruiting classes. UGA is producing Joe Moore finalist O-lines, Butkus Award winners, Thorpe Award winners, Outland Trophy finalists, numerous All-Americans, numerous All-SEC players, winning Coach of the Year awards, nominees for the Frank Broyles Award etc
For the UGA fan the trend is going the right way and UGA is fielding teams that we always knew we were capable of fielding. If we stay the course UGA win another NC soon enough. It’s a fun ride to say the least.
Looking forward the game in Tuscaloosa next season, it should be another barn burner.
All of those accolades are great. I agree, Smart is the right guy for the job. He learned from the best. But would you trade all of those things for a Natty right now, sustained greatness, finishing the season and not saying…so close?
Last year was an abysmal end to the season for Bama. Something that hasn’t happened in a long time. It was ugly and it hurt. But at the end of the day, I can’t say we haven’t achieved our goals in recent years. At some point, Bama’s run will end, and every other program will rejoice. I just hope it isn’t this year or next. Roll Tide either way.
RollTide_N_Colorado
“But would you trade all of those things for a Natty right now …”
First off, living in the real World, I can’t make that trade. I don’t dwell in the fantastical World, I’m not wired that way. I’d rather research stocks and investments than play fantasy football.
However, I am enjoying the journey, step by step. When UGA does win another NC it will be savored and greatly appreciated. But then the day after it starts all over again.
Hopefully bama wins out, dirt stomps somebody in a New Years Day bowl and we have a season final Top-5 that includes UGA, LSU and bama. Then in 2020 UGA and bama are top 5 when they meet in Title Town
No dude, that was exactly Bama’s mantra after they got blown out by Clemson last year. Nick was pissed and had something to prove in 2019 and no one could stop him. How’d that work out for ya?
It all depends. With a healthy Lawrence Cager (healthy enough to play like in the Florida game) and the 5 best O-lineman being healthy, GA has an almost equal chance.
Looks like the Auburn defense did a great job against the Tigers offense. I think Kirby’s defense is better. That’s going to be a great match up.
LSU ranks 11th (SEC) for (237) passing defense.
If Cager can play (big if) I like Fromm’s chances at doing enough damage, and maybe even hitting that 300 yard mark.
Georgia will have to play a great mistake free game on defense and establish a consistent run game. If they do, I like their chances…
I don’t know what he means by “rotating o-line”. We rotate because we’re banged up every game.
Even before being banged up, Mays and Cleveland were rotating a lot at RG and Salyer was getting some looks at RT even before Wilson was hurt.
I don’t think we have the firepower to compete with LSU, Ohio State, Clemson, or Oklahoma two games in a row. I think we are more realistically 5th or 6th. Of course we could beat them. UGA is at a level where they could beat anybody, but I agree that we are missing one or two players that would make this team a reliable national championship contender. We’re stuck in the -we have the potential- club.
Lev- I agree.. and unfortunately for us, those “This is our year!” predictions took a major hit when we lost Hardman, Ridley, Nauta, and Holyfield early to the NFL and Holloman to dismissal. Losing 5 guys early to either the NFL or dismissal handicapped our offense immensely.
I totally agree
The question isn’t “can Georgia win the national title with an old school defense?”. The question is “can anyone win the title WITHOUT an old school defense?”.
Three of the last four national champions have been #1 or #2 in scoring defense. As of today, Ohio State is #1 and Georgia is #2 in this statistic.
I could overload the SDS server with a list of “unstoppable” college offenses that were considered irresistible forces… until they got shut down in championship games.
We’ll see what happens.
If you look at some old tape on the Alabama 2011 National Championship team, you will see overall this year’s UGA team is very similar.
If only this UGA team was playing in 2011… Even that being said, UGA has a great chance to win it all this year. But if they get a lead on LSU I’m gonna pull my hair out. I’d almost rather watch UGA try to come from behind than watch a UGA leaad slowly disappear… again…
Defense wins championships, right?
Florida’s only two losses this year are to LSU and Georgia. Of the two, LSU is the better team this year. Florida plays LSU every year as its permanent cross-divisional opponent, so we’re very familiar with them… LSU is much, much better this year than usual. They’ll fall back to Earth next year without Burrow, but this year their offense is truly special.
The difference in the SEC Championship game will be that LSU can score plenty of points against very good defenses. LSU scored over 40 against each of Florida and Alabama. The LSU receivers get open against elite secondaries. Georgia’s defensive line is sound and better than I thought they were, but still not as good as Auburn’s. Burrow’s quick release and scrambling ability will likely neutralize them.
Auburn had receivers open enough against Georgia to beat them, but Nix missed the throws. Burrow won’t miss.
Georgia should have decent rushing yards in the SECCG but LSU’s secondary is excellent; while it pains me to say this, the LSU DBs are more talented and playing better than the Gator secondary this year. LSU will play man and stack the box against Georgia. LSU’s front seven isn’t as good as in year’s past, but they’re talented and should play well in the coming big games.
I would expect the SECCG betting line to be something like LSU -7, but I expect the actual game result to be LSU by 10-14. Georgia will have a tough time scoring 31 points, which is the minimum it will take to win.
I actually agree with most everything you said. Burrow is playing like a generational quarterback and with that receiving corps they will score just too much for UGA’s offense to keep pace. UGA’s defense will slow them down and make it a game, but the only chance UGA has is if LSU struggles mightily against UGA’s rushing attack — if they can approach 250-300 yards then there’s a chance.
I also agree with what you said about LSU next year. They are a great team with great players and coaches, but their outstanding success this season is due in large part to Burrow. It will be extremely difficult for their passing game to duplicate this year’s results.
I recall last year UGA playing Bama in the SECCg, against a generational QB and an offense that UGA wasn’t supposed to be able to stop. IF UGA can close out the SECCG better than they did last year, they will have a chance.
The line is 3 1/2.
Short answer is yes UGA can win a NC with this defense. Will they? Most likely not
So who most likely will?
My money is on Ohio state or LSU
I feel vomit in my mouth for saying this, but Ohio State looks like the only team in the country that has a great offense AND a great defense.
Well at this point in the season there’s maybe 10 teams with a shot to even get in. All things equal, you have probably a 1/10 chance to win it all. Only one team can win it. It’s not very “likely” for anyone.
Nope!
If Georgia is fortunate to make the Field of Four, I can see them going into the Semi’s with a “we’re down by 21pts mentality. Fromm and company, having been here before, would probably benefit from that factor.
Georgia not having an explosive offense that nets 30+ points a game really isn’t cause for panic should they get matched with Ohio State for example. It would basically come down as the author mentioned, tackling. At any given moment, Georgia could easily go up 17+ points and then maintain that “we’re down by 21 points” approach to every ensuing drive.
As with Tom Osborne in that questionable 2pt play to outright win the National Championship vs Miami, the commentator said..”Osborne’s made this decusion long ago!” With that being said, I believe Coach Smart and staff are preparing for those game time decisions now. Having a veteran QB under center at that time would take the pressure off Georgia having to score 30+ points to beat an Ohio State or Clemson…
Do I think Georgia has a chance to win it all? No I don’t. But if they are placed in ideal situations, they’ll probably shock the world outside of Athens.
The only times they scored 30+ was against the 4 worst teams on the schedule
It was enough to beat ya’ll right?
I don’t know if this is a very good take. Mike Bobo had great success with pro-style offenses, many years he had averages of 35-42 points/game with a similar offense. The problem is the play calling and execution, not the style of offense.