The question has lingered in the background ever since the NCAA moved to a four-team playoff to determine the national champion: will the SEC hog two of the spots, or will the new system hinder the conference’s dominance?

When the inaugural College Football Playoff poll came out Oct. 28 and placed three SEC teams in the top four, it not only seemed possible, but likely. Then Florida upset Georgia in the World’s Largest Cocktail Party. Finally, Ole Miss fell apart through a combination of bad luck, ill-timed turnovers and injuries.

Meanwhile, Florida State and Oregon are playing dominant football. Barring an upset, the Ducks and Seminoles will eat up half the available playoff spots.

The winner of Saturday’s Kansas State-TCU game is in position to contend with a second SEC team, as is Michigan State if it wins out as a one-loss Big Ten champion. Notre Dame could be in the conversation as well.

A one-loss SEC West team would be difficult to keep out of the playoff in any scenario. But two one-loss SEC teams, or an unbeaten and a one-loss team, isn’t likely.

With the SEC East eliminated, it’s up to Alabama, Auburn and Mississippi State to raise the conference banner nationally.

Here are the two remaining scenarios that could lead to the SEC dominating the playoff field.

SCENARIO A: ALABAMA AND MISSISSIPPI STATE MAKE THE PLAYOFF

What has to happen:

  • Alabama beats Mississippi State in Tuscaloosa on Nov. 15
  • Alabama wins the Iron Bowl and Mississippi State wins the Egg Bowl on Nov. 29.
  • Alabama survives potential upsets at LSU and against the SEC East champion, likely Missouri or Georgia.

Alabama should be favored against LSU, Mississippi State, Auburn and the SEC East champion, if it wins the West. But it’s asking a lot, even for a Nick Saban team, to go 4-0 with that schedule. And in this scenario, the one-loss team (Mississippi State) doesn’t have as strong of a resume as it would in Scenario B (Auburn).

Still, this is the more realistic scenario.

Will happen because: Notre Dame’s strength of schedule has deteriorated faster than Mississippi State’s may do. If the Bulldogs’ only loss came on the road against a playoff team, given that Auburn beat Kansas State on the road earlier this year, Dan Mullen’s team would have an excellent argument against the Big 12 champion or Michigan State.

Won’t happen because: Alabama’s remaining schedule is too tough. Also, a one-loss Mississippi State team that didn’t win its division isn’t a guarantee to make the field. The playoff committee appears to value quality wins above anything else. Auburn, LSU and Ole Miss represent good wins, but in this scenario, Auburn would lose at least two games, while LSU and Ole Miss would lose at least three. Would the Bulldogs, without a division title, merit consideration ahead of a one-loss Big 12 or Big Ten champion or a one-loss Notre Dame? The committee would face an onslaught of criticism amid cries that the new system already has failed, and that may be something it wants to avoid, even subconsciously.

SCENARIO B: AUBURN AND MISSISSIPPI STATE MAKE THE PLAYOFF

What has to happen:

  • Auburn beats Georgia on the road Nov. 15.
  • Auburn beats Alabama on the road Nov. 29.
  • Mississippi State beats Alabama on the road Nov. 15.
  • Mississippi State beats Ole Miss on the road Nov. 29.
  • Auburn survives a potential upset against Texas A&M.
  • Mississippi State crushes Missouri in the SEC championship.

This is the scenario many media members are touting for the SEC to potentially claim two playoff spots. The biggest issue? Look at how many road wins it requires.

Alabama would have to lose in Tuscaloosa twice within three weeks. Georgia and Ole Miss also would have to lose at home.

Will happen because: The SEC would love to bet on a one-loss Auburn team as its second bid. The Tigers’ resume would include road wins against Ole Miss, Georgia and Alabama and a road loss to an unbeaten SEC champion. The committee says it won’t listen to outside noise, but it will be under tremendous pressure from a large part of the country to keep the SEC from monopolizing the playoff. But even the most ardent SEC haters would have a tough time arguing against Auburn in this scenario.

Won’t happen because: The odds are too great. It requires too many road wins in SEC stadiums late in November.