Mississippi State played well in Provo last Friday, though not well enough to win an overtime thriller against BYU. The Bulldogs exceeded expectations in the trenches and held Jamaal Williams to 2.9 yards per carry on 26 attempts, his second-lowest yards per carry average this season. However, a loss is still a loss. The Bulldogs fell to 2-4 and bowl-eligibility now appears nearly out of reach. Six games remain for the Bulldogs. Four are against division rivals, Texas A&M, Alabama, Arkansas and Ole Miss, who are currently ranked 6, 1, 17 and 23, respectively.

Kentucky is coming off a bye that included some bizarre controversy when a fan called into the weekly coach’s show and asked coach Mark Stoops if Mississippi State coach Dan Mullen could be the Wildcats’ next coach.

The game this weekend appears to mean more for Stoops’ squad than it does for Mullen’s. Should Kentucky beat Mississippi State, it only needs wins against an objectively poor Missouri team and an FCS opponent (Austin Peay) to qualify for the postseason. Defeating the Bulldogs has proven difficult lately for Kentucky, which has lost seven straight and nine of the last 12 in the rivalry. Furthermore, the Wildcats have not won in Lexington since 2005.

These are the important advantages each team ought to have this Saturday in what amounts to a must-win conference game.

WHEN MISSISSIPPI STATE HAS THE BALL

Mississippi State Passing vs. Kentucky Pass Defense: Kentucky picked off opponents six times in the first three games this season. Although the Wildcats have not intercepted an opposing quarterback since, they are capable of jumping routs on the outside and baiting quarterbacks into deep throws into double coverage. Even if they are not getting interceptions, the Wildcats’ pass defense is limiting opponents, somewhat, through the air. Only Alabama completed 20 or more passes against Kentucky this season. Still, the Cats rank 13th in the SEC with 248 yards allowed per game. Mississippi State improved in the air against BYU, but passing against Kentucky would mean the ground game is not working. If Mississippi State is forced to throw, the Kentucky secondary will limit the damage and control momentum.

EDGE: Kentucky

Mississippi State Rushing vs. Kentucky Rush Defense: The Wildcats have surrendered more than 4 yards per carry in four of the last five games this season — the lone exception being South Carolina. The Bulldogs average nearly 5 yards per carry, led by quarterback Nick Fitzgerald, who is averaging 5.4 yards on 80 carries this season. The Mississippi State offensive line will go to work against the Kentucky front seven. Expect the Bulldogs to rack up in the neighborhood of 250 yards on 45 carries and dictate the offensive tempo.

EDGE: Mississippi State

WHEN KENTUCKY HAS THE BALL

Kentucky Passing vs. Mississippi State Pass Defense: The Kentucky passing attack remains in question halfway through the season. Drew Barker returned as the starter in 2016 but was benched after throwing an interception on the third snap of the third game. Dual-threat quarterback Stephen Johnson hit 17-of-22 passes for 310 yards and 3 touchdowns in relief while also rushing 10 times for 51 yards. However, that was against New Mexico State. Since that game, Johnson has neither passed for 150 yards, nor has he thrown a touchdown, but he has held on to the starting spot. Last week, Mississippi State found a way to force a far superior dual-threat quarterback to stay in the pocket and make throws. Johnson is not as experienced as, and does not have the same congruity with, his offense as BYU’s Taysom Hill. Expect Mississippi State coverage to dominate in passing situations.

EDGE: Mississippi State

Kentucky Rushing vs. Mississippi State Rush Defense: Stanley “Boom” Williams has averaged an astounding 7.1 yards on his last 197 carries dating back to the beginning of the 2015 season. The Bulldogs did match the intensity of the BYU offensive line last week, but that was a surprise. MSU had previously been gashed by LSU’s Leonard Fournette and Auburn’s Kamryn Pettway. Kentucky depends on establishing the run. Although Johnson has not shown much in the way of a sustained rushing attack, the threat of the quarterback will open up lanes for Williams.

EDGE: Kentucky