Heading into the 2016 season, no one could have predicted what was about to happen to the Missouri Tigers.

Trying to improve on a 5-7 campaign in 2015, first-year coach Barry Odom watched as the offense went from incompetent to one of the best units in the SEC. Unfortunately, he also watched as a once-proud defense suffered through one of the biggest collapses in college football history and gave up 479.7 yards per game.

That led to an abysmal 4-8 record that included an embarrassing homecoming loss to Middle Tennessee, but there were some small glimmers of hope at the end of the year, when the Tigers won two of their last three games and ended the year with a 28-24 win over Arkansas in the Battle Line Rivalry.

As the 2017 season approaches, the Tigers should again boast one of the SEC’s best offenses, so if the defense can be even marginally better than it was last year, a bowl game should be in Mizzou’s future.

So, will this fall be a dream or a disaster for Mizzou fans? Here are just a few things that will help determine whether it’s a good year or a bad one for the Tigers.

The keys to a dream season

1. Drew Lock and J’Mon Moore lead the SEC

Last year, Lock and Moore finished second in the SEC in passing yards and receiving yards, respectively. Lock finished 31 yards behind Arkansas’s Austin Allen and Moore finished 27 yards behind Texas A&M’s Josh Reynolds.

What made those feats even more impressive is that Allen and Reynolds each played 13 games, while Moore and Lock only had 12. If the Tigers had qualified for a bowl game, it’s safe to say the SEC would have had some different statistical leaders.

Looking ahead to this season, Lock and Moore need to continue connecting with one another to make sure the Mizzou offense keeps putting points on the board. As a redshirt senior, Moore is one of the team’s leaders, and if he can improve on last year’s numbers, it could be a great year in Columbia.

2. Damarea Crockett plays in every game

Crockett had a huge year as a true freshman in 2016, rushing for 1,062 yards and 10 touchdowns on only 153 attempts.

However, it took him a few games to learn the offense and take over as the feature back, and he was also suspended for the season-ending victory over Arkansas because of a marijuana-related arrest.

With a full understanding of Josh Heupel’s offense, Crockett has the sky as his limit in 2017. It isn’t far-fetched to think he could end the year as the SEC’s leading rusher if he stays on the field and the Tigers earn a 13th game.

3. The Tigers post a winning record in the East

After Tennessee lost several key players on both sides of the ball, and with Florida facing uncertainty at quarterback and dealing with a slew of suspensions, it’s possible that 2017 will be a down year for the SEC East.

Mizzou gets to play South Carolina, Florida and Tennessee at Faurot Field this year, too, and in a best-case scenario, the Tigers would win at least two of those games, possibly all three (though beating Florida would be a major upset).

The road SEC East schedule consists of Vanderbilt, Kentucky and Georgia. None of those games will be easy to win, but if the Tigers are going to have a bowl-worthy season, they need to pick up at least two wins there as well.

4. Terry Beckner Jr. stays healthy and Marcell Frazier turns into the next star pass rusher

When Beckner has been on the field, he’s looked amazing, and he will almost certainly be the Tigers’ next highly rated NFL Draft pick.

The problem, of course, is that he hasn’t been able to stay healthy. As a freshman, he tore his right ACL during a game against BYU. Last year, he tore his left ACL in a game against Middle Tennessee. If he can play in every game this fall, Mizzou may have a chance to improve its abysmal run defense.

Meanwhile, the pass rush is going to take a major step back unless Frazier is able to up his production from last year. Charles Harris recorded nine sacks in 2016 and Frazier was right on his heels with 8.5.

If Frazier can continue that level of production even as opposing offensive lines are focusing on stopping him, the Tigers should have another strong defensive line in 2017.

5. The Tigers beat up on non-conference foes

Mizzou isn’t exactly playing a murderers’ row when it comes to the non-conference schedule, with games against Missouri State, Purdue, UConn and Idaho sprinkled in throughout the season.

The Tigers travel to Hartford to take on UConn, but other than that, their non-conference games are all at Faurot Field.

Knowing that this is largely the same team that lost to Middle Tennessee on homecoming weekend last year, it’s hard to say these will be four easy wins for the Tigers, but if Mizzou wants to go bowling in December, picking up four wins against non-SEC squads will make things a whole lot easier.

Recipes for disaster

1. Without Charles Harris and Michael Scherer, the defense gets worse

The Mizzou defense took a major step back last year, allowing a whopping 479.7 yards per game (118th in the nation) after allowing only 302 yards per contest in 2015.

Even with star DE Charles Harris racking up nine sacks, the Tigers were terrible on that side of the ball in 2016 and also were hurt by major injuries to LB Michael Scherer and DT Terry Beckner Jr., both of which occurred in the Middle Tennessee game.

Now that Harris and Scherer are gone, the Tigers will have their work cut out for them if they are going to improve on last year’s horrendous performance. If they can’t play significantly better on that side of the ball, it’s going to be another long year in Columbia.

2. The Tigers go 0-4 in SEC home games

When you look at Mizzou’s four home SEC games this fall, there are no easy opponents.

In Week 2, the Tigers host star QB Jake Bentley and the up-and-coming South Carolina Gamecocks in what’s sure to be a high-scoring affair. Two weeks later, they host the high-powered Auburn Tigers, who have a legitimate chance to win the SEC West.

From there, the Tigers host Florida in Week 10 and Tennessee in Week 11, teams that crushed them in 2016.

That’s a tough SEC home schedule, and if the Tigers fail to win at least one of those contests, it will make qualifying for a bowl game very difficult.

3. Drew Lock can’t improve his completion percentage

Though Lock improved his completion percentage from 49 percent to 54.6 percent in 2016, he still recently called his performance in that statistical category “horse poop,” and it’s hard to argue with him.

Mizzou’s fast-paced offense is deadly when it’s clicking, but there’s no better way to kill a drive than having passes fall incomplete — just ask the Tigers’ defense.

There were plenty of problems with defensive coordinator DeMontie Cross’s unit last year, but one of the biggest was the fact that the Mizzou defense was simply on the field too much.

It’s hard to be effective when you battle for 5 minutes to force a punt, only to watch as your own offense is forced to punt within 30 seconds thanks to a short run and two incomplete passes.

Lock needs to get his completion percentage up into the 60s this season or the Tigers defense will once again find itself exhausted before halftime on an all-too-frequent basis.