Heading into the 2018 season, the Missouri Tigers have a lot of momentum after going 7-6 in 2017, overcoming a 1-5 start to qualify for a bowl game, losing to Texas in the Texas Bowl.

However, coach Barry Odom’s squad also has some big question marks, especially after losing OC Josh Heupel to UCF and hiring former Tennessee head coach Derek Dooley to replace him. Dooley has never called plays before, so it was an interesting hire, to say the least.

ESPN’s FPI projections predict that the Tigers will go 7-5 in the regular season once again, which seems like a solid goal for Odom and his staff, as anything less than bowl eligibility for a team with Drew Lock at quarterback would be an embarrassment:

However, is 7-5 the record the Tigers should shoot for? Or is there a chance Mizzou could play even better this fall? Let’s break down the schedule:

Must-wins

The Tigers have six games that they should win, and those games would get them to the minimum requirement for bowl eligibility. Those six games are:

  • Week 1 — vs. UT-Martin
  • Week 2 — vs. Wyoming
  • Week 8 — vs. Memphis
  • Week 9 — vs. Kentucky
  • Week 11 — vs. Vanderbilt
  • Week 12 — at Tennessee

The toughest of those games may be the Week 12 matchup in Knoxville, depending on how well the Vols are playing under new coach Jeremy Pruitt. Other than that, the Tigers need to defend Faurot Field if they’re going to reach seven wins for a second-straight season.

Likely losses

Now, it’s time for a dose of reality, as there are a few games on the Tigers’ schedule that won’t be easy to win. Here’s a look at the three games that Mizzou fans should expect to lose:

  • Week 4 — vs. Georgia
  • Week 6 — at South Carolina
  • Week 7 — at Alabama

Mizzou has the toughest possible SEC East-West rotating crossover game this fall, as Odom and company will head to Tuscaloosa to take on Alabama in Week 7. Following a trip to South Carolina — a team on the rise in the East — that’s a brutal two-week stretch.

At least the Tigers get a bye week after hosting Georgia, so they’ll get a chance to lick their wounds after a likely loss to a team that will be hungry for another SEC title.

50-50 games

So, we have six games that the Tigers should win and three that they’ll likely lose. That leaves three other games that will determine how successful this season is.

Those games are not going to be easy, by any means, but winning two out of three should be a goal:

  • Week 3 — at Purdue
  • Week 10 — at Florida
  • Week 13 — vs. Arkansas

The Tigers have beaten the Razorbacks the past two years, and that’s a game they’ll be eager to win once again. However, the Hogs are a wild card this year under new coach Chad Morris. The Gators, with new coach Dan Mullen, are another team that is tough to read right now.

Then, there’s Purdue. The Boilermakers came into Columbia and embarrassed the Tigers last year. Will Mizzou get revenge on the road this fall? As the Tigers’ first road game of the year, it’ll be interesting to see how they handle being away from Faurot Field.

Verdict

It could be another rough start to the year for Mizzou, as the way the schedule is set up could have the Tigers sitting at 3-3 or 2-4 entering the homecoming matchup against Memphis on Oct. 20.

However, like last year, the schedule lightens up in the second half of the season, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Mizzou make another late run. ESPN’s FPI has the Tigers expected to go 7-5, and that’s a realistic goal.

Still, this is a team that should have an explosive offense with Lock at the quarterback position, so 8-4 (or even 9-3) are distinct possibilities for Mizzou this fall.