2021 NFL Draft: Best bets for Round 1

The 2021 NFL Draft begins on Thursday night in Cleveland, and there will surely be a number of surprises. Betting on the first round is never easy, but there are some bets that stand out above the rest.

I took a look at some of the draft prop bets on the FanDuel Sportsbook and found a number of bets I like that involve SEC and Big Ten standouts. (Note: All odds current as of Wednesday afternoon.)

So, without further ado, here are my best bets for Round 1 of the 2021 NFL Draft, which will begin at 8 p.m. ET and will be televised on ESPN, ABC and the NFL Network:

Kyle Pitts draft position — Under 4.5 (-134)

This is probably my favorite bet of the entire draft. Don’t be fooled by the rumors that the Atlanta Falcons could be taking a quarterback at No. 4 overall. They restructured Matt Ryan’s contract back in March, and now it’ll be very expensive for them to cut ties with the longtime quarterback over the next 3 years.

Thus, Pitts makes sense here. You’re not going to draft a guy like Justin Fields, Mac Jones or Trey Lance (whoever is still on the board at No. 4 overall) and make him sit for 2-3 years behind Ryan.

Pitts is the best player on the board, and I personally think he’s a lock to go No. 4 to the Falcons. Then, they can decide if they want to trade Julio Jones this summer or not. I’d advise against it, as Jones, Calvin Ridley, Hayden Hurst and Pitts would be a heck of a receiving corps.

Ja’Marr Chase draft position — Over 5.5 (+146)

I have the first 6 picks going like this:

No. 1 — Trevor Lawrence, QB (Clemson) — Jacksonville Jaguars
No. 2 — Zach Wilson, QB (BYU) — New York Jets
No. 3 — Mac Jones, QB (Alabama) — San Francisco 49ers
No. 4 — Kyle Pitts, TE (Florida) — Atlanta Falcons
No. 5 — Penei Sewell, OT (Oregon) — Cincinnati Bengals
No. 6 — Ja’Marr Chase, WR (LSU) — Miami Dolphins

I’m a bit concerned that the Bengals will try to reunite Chase with former LSU QB Joe Burrow, but that offensive line was a mess last year. Getting the best tackle in the draft class would be much better for Burrow’s long-term health.

If and when Chase falls to No. 6, though, the Dolphins should waste no time pouncing on him. However, all it takes for this bet to hit is for him to fall past the Bengals. I like the odds of that happening.

DeVonta Smith to be a top-10 pick (+115)

Better than even odds for the Heisman Trophy winner to go in the top 10? I’ll take it!

I don’t think he gets past the Detroit Lions at No. 7. Of course, the Lions could trade down, potentially with the Denver Broncos or New England Patriots or another QB-needy team, but if they stay put at 7, Smith should be the guy.

The Lions have needs all over their roster, but Smith is the best player on the board here, and that should be the deciding factor. I like his fit with new Lions QB Jared Goff, too. Goff and Brandin Cooks had a great chemistry. Cooks, like Smith, is an undersized guy.

Now, I do have concerns about Goff and Smith in an offense that doesn’t belong to Rams coach Sean McVay, but if the Lions want to stay at No. 7, Smith is a no-brainer pick.

DeVonta Smith to be drafted before Jaylen Waddle (+164)

Speaking of the 2020 Heisman winner, I think he’ll be off the board before his talented Alabama teammate, Jaylen Waddle. It’s not that Waddle is a bad player, of course. He’s drawing comparisons to Tyreek Hill of the Kansas City Chiefs.

I don’t see a scenario in which Waddle falls past the Philadelphia Eagles, who hold the No. 12 pick. But, as I mentioned above, I think Smith is a near-lock to be a top-10 selection. Thus, he should be drafted before Waddle.

The reason Waddle is currently a -310 favorite to be picked ahead of Smith is a report that says the Dolphins favor Waddle over Ja’Marr Chase. I don’t buy it. This is the time of year when a lot of reports like that come out. It’s difficult to separate the smokescreens from the reports with some truth, but I’m betting Smith is off the board before his teammate.

Rashawn Slater to be a top-10 pick (-155)

I have Slater slated (ha) to go to the Carolina Panthers at No. 8 overall. Once Sewell comes off the board, though, teams that need a tackle could get antsy. There are several tackle-needy teams in this draft, including squads like the Los Angeles Chargers (picking at No. 13) and Minnesota Vikings (No. 14).

If Slater somehow slips past the Panthers, either of those teams could trade up. Or, if the Detroit Lions want to trade down, the Chargers or Vikings could move up to take Slater before the Panthers get a chance to.

Either way, I’m confident the North Carolina tackle will be off the board before pick No. 11 rolls around.

Kwity Paye to be first defensive lineman drafted (-105)

The Michigan edge rusher is my favorite of all the edge guys. I think Jaelen Phillips out of Miami is the biggest threat to Paye being the first defensive lineman taken, but Phillips has concussion issues in his past. He even briefly retired from football due to concussions.

That could be enough for him to slip behind Paye in the lineman rankings. NFL teams will do their due diligence on Phillips and his concussion history, so we’ll see if any get scared away. I also think Alabama DL Christian Barmore is a threat to be the first defensive lineman off the board, but NFL teams seem to like edge guys more than interior guys.

Apparently there are concerns about Barmore’s “coachability” that could cause him to slide. Always take reports like that with a grain of salt, especially around draft time. But, for now, it seems Paye is the “safest” option among the top 3 defensive linemen in the class. I’m willing to bet he’ll be the first player along the defensive front to be drafted.