Monday Night Football heads to AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas as the Dallas Cowboys play host to the Philadelphia Eagles in an NFC East early season divisional battle of two 1-1 teams. Dallas used a 56-yard field goal from Greg Zuerlein as time expired to edge past the Los Angeles Chargers last Sunday, while the Eagles fell at home to the San Francisco 49ers. Injuries could play a part in deciding the outcome here, as both teams saw key personnel go down recently and will have to adapt accordingly.

Let’s jump into our Eagles vs. Cowboys odds, picks, and prediction for this NFL Week 3 Monday Night Football matchup.

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Eagles vs. Cowboys Odds

Before we jump into our Eagles vs. Cowboys pick and prediction, let’s first take a look at the betting odds (courtesy of Barstool Sportsbook):

TeamsSpreadMoneylineTotal
Eagles+3 (-105)+145O 51.5 (-109)
Cowboys-3 (-117)-180U 51.5 (-112)

Dallas was listed as home favorites on advanced lines by as many as six points when this first opened, a number which has since dipped to as low as 3.5, despite roughly 57 percent of the bets coming in on the Cowboys. The total for the game opened around 49.5, but has shot up to as high as 52 currently, following the 67 percent of wagers coming in on the over.

Note: betting data is as of Sunday morning.

Eagles vs. Cowboys Pick

The Cowboys will be without defensive end DeMarcus Lawrence, defensive tackle Carlos Watkins, wide receiver Michael Gallup, linebacker Keanu Neal, and tackle La’el Collins and still have wide receiver Amari Cooper and safety Donovan Wilson listed as questionable. Meanwhile, Philadelphia will be missing defensive end Brandon Graham, guard Brandon Brooks, and tight end Zach Ertz, with running back Miles Sanders, defensive tackle Hassan Ridgeway, and safety Rodney McLeod all carrying questionable tags into the weekend.

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Obviously, injuries, even those to key players, are a regular part of any team’s season. However, the Cowboys gained copious experience playing without critical contributors throughout last season, while the Eagles will be trying to adapt to their critical losses here under a new head coach, new offensive coordinator, and new defensive coordinator. Nick Sirianni is a first-time head coach and Jonathan Gannon is a first-time defensive coordinator, neither with any prior experience calling plays.

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Offensive coordinator Shane Steichen called plays for the Chargers in 2020 and part of 2019, but you wouldn’t likely deem it a successful venture as they went 9-15 SU and 8-14-2 ATS, including a 2-10 SU record against .500 and above opponents (4-8 ATS). There have already been multiple questionable fourth down play selections by this group in two games this season. Will they overthink those potential situations now in this one, getting gun shy or headstrong in the wrong moment?

Betting on props? Be sure to take a look at the best Eagles vs. Cowboys player props picks for tonight’s game.

It also may prove a bit much for this group to work through everything involved in the first road game prep week that didn’t offer a full preseason for which to ready the troops, coupled with the changes in routine that come with prepping for a Monday Night Football game on the road against an opponent that knows your personnel well.

Looking back to Sirianni’s three seasons as offensive coordinator in Indianapolis, he got to experience just one MNF game, a 34-7 road loss at the Saints. That’s hardly a ringing endorsement for him having a productive plan of attack here.

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While we don’t often prefer to play against a line move on a side that is receiving the higher percentage of the bets, there seems to be some undeniable value in laying less than four points (or even just three if you are a bettor who prefers to buy the hook) with a home team who happens to be considerable favorites to win its division (currently -130) and is about to play its first NFC East game of the season.

Throw last season’s results out, as the Cowboys did not play a single entire division game with Dak Prescott and had a new head coach to boot. In each of the three seasons prior, Dallas went 5-1 SU and ATS against NFC East opponents. The Cowboys are currently on a 12-2 ATS run in their last 14 games as divisional favorites of more than two points and are 7-1 ATS in their last eight as favorites of seven or fewer against an NFC East opponent off a straight up loss.

Meanwhile, the Eagles covered just one of their six division games last season as part of a humbling season that saw them cover in just four of their 16 efforts. They were just 1-4 ATS as road dogs during last year’s campaign, failing to cover any of their final six away games overall in 2020.

The poor trends do not end there for the Eagles. They are just 2-10 ATS in their last 12 September games and have failed to cover any of their last four Week 3 outings. After their 17-11 home loss to the 49ers last week in which Philly fell despite posting 151 rushing yards, we should point out that the Eagles are just 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games after a SU loss.

They have covered just two of their last seven after scoring 14 or fewer points previously and are just 1-4 ATS in their last five games after gaining over 150 yards on the ground prior.

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Even the playing surface seems to be working against Philadelphia here. AT&T Stadium uses Matrix Turf and the Birds are just 1-4 ATS in their last five games on field turf, while the Cowboys have covered four of their last five on such artificial surfaces.

Last year’s Eagles team came here in Week 16 as three point favorites and got smoked 37-17 by a Cowboys bunch led by Andy Dalton. Now facing Prescott, an obvious upgrade and a guy who is 13-8 ATS in his career against teams off a SU loss, Philly is unlikely to improve upon a current 2-8 ATS run in its last 10 road revenge efforts playing against .500 or better opposition.

As a final piece of reassurance for Dallas bettors, the head-to-head trends fully support them winning and covering here, as well. The ‘Boys have covered five of the last seven overall in the head-to-head rivalry, including three straight and four of the last five here in Texas. In fact, the favorite between these two has covered eight of the last 11 meetings, while the home team has won and covered five straight. Actually, the road team has managed 17 or fewer points in four straight in the head-to-head history.

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Eagles vs. Cowboys Prediction

Dallas has won six of their last seven home openers when facing Philadelphia, with the only loss coming in the infamous “Pickle-Juice” game in 2000, where temperatures on the field reached upwards of 130 degrees in Dallas and Eagles players downed pickle brine to combat dehydration and cramping, gaining a seemingly monstrous on-field edge (a quintessential outlier).

Dallas has turned its opponents over six times already this season and will face an Eagles defense that has not generated a single turnover through two games. If Prescott and company can keep that streak going, it’s hard to imagine them not winning and covering in this one.

Eagles vs. Cowboys pick: Dallas -3.5

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