Who has edge in Egg Bowl: Ole Miss vs. Miss State
The Egg Bowl looks much different than most thought it would. Ole Miss is vying for the Liberty Bowl, not the Playoff. Mississippi State has four wins.
The Rebels (5-6, 2-5) have pulled Shea Patterson’s redshirt. The Bulldogs (4-7, 2-5) have a loss to South Alabama. The unexpected has happened to both teams heading into a game where unexpected things can happen.
Ole Miss has won the past two in the series, three of the past four. This will be the 113th meeting.
Who has the edge? Let’s break it down.
WHEN OLE MISS HAS THE BALL
QB Shea Patterson vs. Mississippi State pass defense: It has been a very small sample size for the Rebels’ true freshman quarterback. Two games into his career, Patterson has thrown for 560 yards, four touchdowns and an interception. He has faced the 11th- and 13th-ranked SEC defenses and now gets to face the last-ranked team.
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Mississippi State is allowing a league-high 279.7 passing yards per game and has allowed 29 touchdown passes. No other SEC team has allowed 20. Patterson has shown an early knack for making plays out of the pocket. Two games has been plenty of time for Mississippi State to see that.
Edge: Ole Miss
Akeem Judd vs. Mississippi State run defense: Mississippi State is middle of the pack in SEC rushing defense (175 YPG). Ole Miss is next-to-last in rushing offense, 144 yards per game. Judd has been a key. He has three 100-yard rushing games and the Rebels have won all three. Those also were the three games he received the most carries. The Bulldogs are good at getting into the backfield: 21 sacks and 71 tackles-for-loss. Judd and a still-pieced together offensive line will see an array of talent against senior LB Richie Brown, DE Jonathan Calvin and freshman LB Leo Lewis.
Edge: Mississippi State
Ole Miss wide receivers vs. Mississippi State secondary: The Rebels have one of the best groups of wide receivers in the country. Ole Miss lost Chad Kelly and is still first in the SEC in passing. TE Evan Engram leads the conference with 926 yards. Damore’ea Stringfellow and Van Jefferson are both in the top 19. Mississippi State does have 11 picks, two each from Kivon Coman, Jamoral Graham and Mark McLaurin. Watching the chip Starkville native A.J. Brown plays with against the Bulldogs will be interesting.
Edge: Ole Miss
WHEN MISSISSIPPI STATE HAS THE BALL
QB Nick Fitzgerald vs. Ole Miss pass defense: Fitzgerald is more runner than passer but his best passing days came in three of Mississippi State’s wins. Fitzgerald has thrown for 18 touchdowns and 10 picks, struggling often with the deep ball. But he has Fred Ross, third in the SEC with 835 yards. Ole Miss is next-to-last in pass defense, allowing 224.5 yards per game.
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Edge: Mississippi State
Fitzgerald/Aeris Williams vs. Ole Miss rushing defense: The Bulldogs finally gave Williams his turn, double-digit carries in each of the past three games. Williams’ emergence has added to Fitzgerald’s threat. The lengthy quarterback has rushed for a team-high 985 yards. He is tough to tackle and a determined runner with 12 of the team’s 18 rushing touchdowns. Ole Miss is allowing 227 yards per game on the ground, 12th in the SEC.
Edge: Mississippi State
Mississippi State wide receivers vs. Ole Miss secondary: Ole Miss is 10th in the SEC in passing defense. Mississippi State is sixth in passing. In four of the Bulldogs’ five SEC losses, Fitzgerald has thrown for fewer than 200 yards. In conference play, only Arkansas, Auburn and Vanderbilt threw for more than 213 yards against the Rebels, who have only eight interceptions, next-to-last in the league.
Excluding against Alabama, Ross has 376 yards and five touchdowns on 25 catches over his past three games. He will be a motivated handful against an Ole Miss secondary that held Texas A&M to fewer than half its normal output two weeks ago.
Edge: Ole Miss (at home)
SPECIAL TEAMS
If it comes down to the kicking game, Ole Miss junior Gary Wunderlich is 20-for-21 on field goals, his only miss a 50-plus yarder against Georgia. He is 3-for-3 from 40-49 yards and has made 39-of-41 PATs. His junior counterpart Westin Graves has struggled, making only 10-of-18 field goals, 3-for-7 between 40 and 49 yards. He has two misses form 20-29 yards.
Edge: Ole Miss
