It’s quite a challenge to project which SEC games will have an effect on the league championship and College Football Playoff picture four months out from the season opener, but that’s what makes schedule peeking and win-loss projections fun — the unknown.

The SEC’s five impact games in 2015

5. Arkansas vs. Tennessee (Oct. 3) — Imagine the hype heading into the Georgia game for the Vols if Tennessee can carry momentum from its first win over Florida in 11 years into its game against the Razorbacks. Here’s the matchup of two preseason darlings expected to be substantially better this season than last based on returning talent. It’s the third try for both participating head coaches to compete for opposite division titles. The loser of this game won’t win its division, but the winner has an inside track and with a little luck, could be unbeaten heading into pivotal contests the following weekend. The home team, most recently Arkansas in 2012, has won seven of the previous eight games in this series.

4. Auburn at LSU (Sept. 13) — Starting the conference slate 0-1 and still winning the division? It’s a nearly impossible feat, but was accomplished by LSU during the 2005 campaign after the Tigers dropped a heartbreaker to Tennessee ran off nine straight wins before falling to Georgia in Atlanta. Auburn needs to try and avoid that route during quarterback Jeremy Johnson’s first road start. LSU, which travels to Mississippi State before entertaining Gus Malzahn’s team, gets two huge advantages in this year’s matchup — Tiger Stadium and the revenge factor. Auburn’s 34-point win at Jordan-Hare last season was War Eagle’s first in the rivalry since the 2010 national championship season and LSU hasn’t forgotten it.

3. Tennessee at Alabama (Oct. 24) — The opening line for ‘The Third Saturday in October’ might be the Crimson Tide by a touchdown or two, but this is the first time in nearly a decade one could argue the Vols’ talent matches Alabama’s starting 22. Ironically, Tennessee’s last win in the series came in 2006, Mike Shula’s final season as the Crimson Tide’s coach. Nick Saban is 8-0 against Tennessee since, beating the Vols by an average of 23.5 points per game. This season’s game will be much closer.

2. Mizzou at Georgia (Oct. 17) — It’s time we stop referring to the South Carolina-Georgia game as the Eastern Division’s most important every season. The Gamecocks have won the highly-contested border war four of the last five seasons with one division title to show for it while the Bulldogs, often loaded with talent, can’t seem to string together enough important wins down the stretch to win an SEC Championship. That’s where the Tigers come in, winners of back-to-back titles. Gary Pinkel’s team knows how to finish and despite a shutout loss to Georgia last fall, took care of business when it mattered. Mizzou left Athens with a win during the 2013 campaign, but it was disguised by the underdog cloak. The Bulldogs now understand to win the SEC, this one’s a must-win.

1. Alabama at Auburn (Nov. 28) — Widely-considered the Western Division’s two best teams heading into the 2015 season, Alabama and Auburn have combined to win five league championships over the last six years, the primary reason the East has looked so bad on the grand stage. It’s a safe bet all eyes in college football will be glued to their televisions two days after Thanksgiving this fall where this rivalry returns to the site of arguably the greatest play in SEC history at the end of the 2013 campaign. The Iron Bowl will only fall off its throne as the SEC’s most important annual tussle when Nick Saban leaves Tuscaloosa, recruiting falters at both programs and the Tigers suffer through another cataclysmic Gene Chizik-caliber season. The odds of that happening over the next five years are faint.