Best Week 1 SEC picks and ATS predictions
The 2022 college football season kicks off in earnest this week. Vanderbilt was the only SEC team in action in Week 0, crushing Hawaii 63-10 as 9-point favorites. All 14 teams will take the field this week, highlighted by No. 11 Oregon vs. No. 3 Georgia in Atlanta on Saturday afternoon.
The table below lists the game times and odds (from Caesars Sportsbook) for all SEC teams in Week 1. Under the table, find my best bets for the week.
Week 1 SEC Odds
Pick 1: LSU (-155) to Win
On the surface, LSU’s 2021 season was thoroughly pedestrian, and expectations were undoubtedly higher than the 6-6 mark they posted. (We’ll exclude the Texas Bowl setback with a depleted roster.) But look a little deeper: outside of a Week 1 loss at UCLA in a true road game, LSU’s losses all came against ranked teams and were mostly tight. They played the Tide to a one-score game (20-14) in Tuscaloosa.
With Brian Kelly taking over as coach and ample turnover on the roster, 2021 isn’t necessarily a strong barometer for what LSU will produce in 2022, but Jayden Daniels has the potential to be an upgrade at QB and, if Garrett Nussmeier beats him out, he’ll have earned it. The offensive line is expected to be considerably more effective, as well.
On the other side sits a Florida State team that has a couple of big advantages: (1) they return considerably more production and (2) they’ve already played, whipping FCS Duquesne 47-7 in Week 0.
But all that “production” is returning from a team that went 5-7, including a loss to FCS Jacksonville State … at home … as nearly 4-touchdown chalk.
The most-flattering adjective you could apply to the 2021 Noles is “erratic.” They had nice wins at North Carolina (35-25) as 17.5-point underdogs and at home over Miami (31-28) as field-goal underdogs. They were also competitive in setbacks to Notre Dame (31-28 OT) and at Florida (24-21).
But they’ll be coming into a hostile environment at the Superdome in New Orleans and, some offense to Mike Norvell, will have the better coach. ESPN’s S&P+ predicts that LSU will not only win but cover, and I’m backing the Tigers to start 1-0 in a de facto home game.
Pick 2: Cincinnati +6 (-110)
Cincinnati lost 9 players to the 2022 NFL Draft, including 5 in the top 100 selections. Their odds to qualify for the College Football Playoff again are a distant +2000. Their odds to win the national championship are worse. That said, they aren’t starting from scratch, and head coach Luke Fickell is a proven commodity, going 44-7 over the past 4 seasons. I expect the defense, now led by safety Ja’Von Hicks and linebackers Deshawn and Ivan Pace, to be dynamic, if not the dominant unit we witnessed last season.
Add in two potential NFL-caliber tight ends (Josh Whyle and Leonard Taylor) and there is more than enough talent here for Cincinnati to mitigate its inevitable drop-off. Oddsmakers aren’t expecting a cataclysmic demise at Cincinnati either, setting the Bearcats’ 2022 NCAAF win total at 9.0 and setting them as short +110 favorites in the AAC title odds.
There is plenty to like about Arkansas’ 2022 squad. But coming off a 9-4 year that included home wins over Texas (40-21) and Texas A&M (20-10) plus a road W at LSU (16-13 OT), Arkansas’ win total has been cut to 7.5. They are losing 38% of their production from last season, per ESPN, including 40% on defense.
I’m not sure I’ll be taking Cincinnati’s +196 moneyline, but with the Bearcats catching a full six points, I’m on the underdog to cover.
