Betting Stuff is a regular sports gambling column at Saturday Down South with a focus on college football wagering (though don’t be surprised to see some non-college football insights from time to time). Betting Stuff is brought to you by MyBookie. If you’re looking for a place to make a deposit and start getting in on the action, look no further than MyBookie.

Chaos Confirmed

Amateur and professional gamblers generally enter the college football season armed with a series of theories about team performance. Some of these theories are backed by models and statistical analysis while others are more visceral and surface level. It’s easy to fall in love with narratives that are interesting or outside the box, whether from an established source or a random Twitter account. Regardless of origins, the most important part of spotting and profiting from trends is fact-checking before and after the game. 

Last week, I noted in this column that it would be a wise move to lean into a “chaos-based approach.” As a result, I backed a handful of underdogs against the spread and on the money line. How did that pan out? As a whole, underdogs performed incredibly well in Week 2 of the college football season. Dogs finished 13-7 ATS (65% | +5.3 Units) with 5 outright upsets. 

  • GT+375
  • Louisiana+350
  • Arkansas State+425
  • UTSA+190
  • Coastal Carolina+170

These shocking upsets failed to include a pair of near-misses from Houston Baptist and Campbell that would have paid off handsomely (HBU 200:1, Campbell 85:1). Houston Baptist relied upon an offense chock full of experience and explosive playmakers, while Campbell was the beneficiary of an opponent in the grips of a COVID-19 outbreak (GSU was missing 33 players). Needless to say, chaos prevailed last week nearly across the board.  

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First Timers

Four of the 5 moneyline favorites that lost last week were playing in their first game, a factor that will continue to be significant, particularly for teams facing opponents with in-game experience. UCF, for example, has been installed as a 7.5-point favorite at Georgia Tech this weekend. UCF will be playing shorthanded in its season-opener against a Yellow Jackets team that already has registered a significant upset in 2020. 

In total, 10 matchups in Week 2 feature teams with in-game experience against opponents playing in their season-opener. Of that 10-pack, Duke presents the most value as a short home favorite (MyBookie: Duke-6) against a Boston College program playing its first game under an entirely new coaching staff. Thus far in 2020, new coaching staffs are just 1-3 ATS, losing to opponents by an average of 26 points per game. Additionally, Boston College ranks 88th in returning offensive production including losing their starting QB (Anthony Brown) to the transfer portal during the offseason. Phil Jurkovec will be making his first start for BC in front of an offensive line that features just one upperclassman. Given the early trends this season related to player and coaching continuity, Duke 1st half-3.5 and Duke-6 for the game presents significant value to gamblers. 

Games I’ll be playing in Week 3

Tulsa at Oklahoma State-22.5 (66.5)

Oklahoma State’s tumultuous offseason was well-documented. Beyond their short-lived mutiny, the Pokes said goodbye to their offensive coordinator Sean Gleeson, a rising star in the coaching ranks. There is also a cloud of uncertainty surrounding their personnel because head coach Mike Gundy noted that a handful of players opted out of the 2020 season, without naming them. Given Oklahoma State’s depth chart release, it appears none of the players to opt out were starters, but overall depth and playing time remain a question mark. According to the Tulsa World, “Gundy said multiple true freshmen should see the field against Tulsa on Sept. 19.” And that’s why I view Tulsa as a solid underdog play. 

The Golden Hurricane return the 4th-most offensive production in the country and the majority of their positional coaches. That experience and continuity should help them build on a passing attack that averaged 281.3 yards per game through the air last fall. All but 2 offensive starters are 4th-year juniors or seniors, including Keylon Stokes, who is on the Biletnikoff Award preseason watch list. The Tulsa offensive line was one of the nation’s most inexperienced last season, a weakness that is now viewed as a team strength. Down the stretch,  the Golden Hurricane’s rushing attack finally showed signs of life, culminating in a 338-yard rushing performance against East Carolina. And if there’s one glaring weakness in Oklahoma State’s defense,  it’s the Pokes’ run defense (158.5 ypg, 67th). 

As we saw in Week 1, not all road trips are created equal in college football. Arkansas State was able to cover in Memphis after a short road trip that didn’t necessitate a hotel stay or flight. Similarly, Tulsa is just an hour from Stillwater and will be playing in front of a small crowd due to social distancing at Boone Pickens Stadium. Just another small trend favoring the three-touchdown underdog on Saturday. 

Just as I backed Louisiana last week on the road in Ames, I’m turning to an experienced offense catching double-digits. Even during a down year, Tulsa still finished 5-2 ATS as an underdog in 2019. I don’t believe that the Pokes should be placed on upset alert, but given their coaching turnover and stated desire to empty their bench, I think a backdoor cover is more likely than a Cowboy runaway. 

Pick: Tulsa+22.5

Houston at Baylor-4 (62.5)

If this game had been played at the end of the 2019 season, the spread would have been closer to 4 touchdowns instead of 4 points. That’s how much change we see in the college game year to year. The Cougars survived a bumpy transition in Dana Holgorsen’s first season in H-Town, but return the 3rd-most production in the country, including virtually every player from their defensive 2-deep. Baylor, by contrast, ranks 127th in returning defensive production. Oh, and they have an entirely new coaching staff led by a first-time head coach. 

It appears the first-year head coach angle is baked into this line a bit. FBS programs with new head coaches are 0-3-1 ATS, failing to cover the number by an average of 7.3 ppg.  Is Houston’s roster and coaching continuity really enough to change this from a presumed blowout in 2019 to a one-possession game in 2020? In my opinion, no. Despite Houston’s returning production, they have still have a long way to go. Last season, Houston was one of the nation’s worst defenses and subsequently hit the transfer portal hard looking for competent players in their defensive secondary. It would be difficult for UH to be worse against the pass (288.4 ypg, 124th) but an afternoon tilt against a star quarterback like Baylor’s Charlie Brewer isn’t what the doctor ordered.

Diving even deeper into the game within the game between the Baylor O and the Houston D, it’s apparent that Baylor’s only offensive flaw (protecting the passer) won’t be exposed against an inept Houston front. The Cougars registered just 21 sacks last season. With extra time to operate, I expect Brewer and a receiving corps with speed to burn to score early and often against a porous Houston pass defense. 

On the other side of the ball, I’m banking on a solid performance from a Dave Aranda-coached defense. The former Wisconsin and LSU defensive coordinator is arguably the top defensive mind in the game and excels at the art of dictating terms to an offense. From exotic blitzes to zero man fronts, he forces opponents out of their comfort zone. That’s not good news for a Houston offense that is heavily reliant upon a single player. Marquez Stevenson is an All-American talent at wide receiver. When Stevenson nabbed 5 or more passes last season, UH was 4-2 ATS. If he is effectively neutralized in this game, Houston will have major problems keeping pace with the Baylor offense. Raleigh Texada, a 2020 Preseason All-Big 12 second-team honoree, will be drawing Stevenson in coverage and has the speed to match up with the Cougars’ superstar. Texada moonlights as a sprinter on Baylor’s track and field team. 

In the end, this play comes down to the line movement. The spread for this game opened at Baylor-7 at a few sportsbooks but has been bet down to 4 or 4.5 (MyBookie: Baylor-4.5). Any number under a touchdown is worth playing considering the major defensive liabilities present on the Houston defense.

Pick: Baylor-4 / Baylor Team Total Over 33.5

Interesting gambling facts about Week 3

National spotlight: Louisville and Miami face off Saturday night as the first ranked matchup of the 2020 season, both coming off double-digit home wins against quality Group of 5 opponents. A few trends pop off the page right away in this matchup. While the Hurricanes continue to underperform on the road (5-11 ATS since 2017), the Cardinals have enjoyed the benefits of Cardinal Stadium, winning their past 4 home games straight up and against the spread. 

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Both offenses bring different, yet equally effective, attacks to the table. Miami appears ready to carve teams up on the ground now that they have one of the best dual-threat quarterbacks in the country at their disposal. D’Eriq King’s 29 career rushing touchdowns leads all returning FBS quarterbacks and was on full display in the Canes’ 17-point victory against UAB in Week 2. Miami ran for 337 yards against the Blazers, and did so at a 6.5 yards per carry clip. Louisville isn’t nearly as good on the ground, but it’s far more explosive through the air. The Cards gouged defenses for 28 40+ yard plays last season and picked up where they left off against Western Kentucky in their opener. I expect the current number (64.5 at MyBookie) to climb closer to 67 before kickoff. 

Firsts aplenty: Louisiana defeated a ranked opponent on the road for the first time Saturday and they were rewarded with their first national ranking since 1943. Will that win create a hangover situation as they travel to Atlanta to take on Georgia State? Most casual gamblers will side with the Ragin’ Cajuns after a program-defining win, but the real value is on the GSU side. The Panthers have gone bowling in 2 of Shawn Elliott’s 3 seasons and return more defensive production than any Sun Belt team. Remembering that GSU knocked off Tennessee on the road last season right out of the gate, it’s easy to envision them being a thorn in Louisiana’s side Saturday. 

Familiar foes: Georgia Tech’s Geoff Collins will be facing UCF for the 3rd time in his career, which included a near-miss against the Knights when they were ranked No. 9 in 2017 as the head coach of Temple. This familiarity with their offense and positive momentum following a road upset of Florida State tells me that GT is a live dog against this Group of 5 darling. Toss in the facts that UCF will be missing a few defensive starters and that Georgia Tech finally has a difference-maker at QB (Jeff Sims) and I’m going to grab the Yellow Jackets as long as the key number is in my favor (MyBookie: GT+7.5). 

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An old FCS rivalry renewed: Marshall and Appalachian State, once major D I-AA powers, are locking horns once again Saturday. Between 1985 and 1996, the teams met 13 times, with both teams nationally ranked in 8 of those contests. Given the current college football landscape, a win for either team would catapult them into serious contention for the Group of 5 auto-bid to a New Year’s 6 bowl game. This was expected for Appalachian State but seemingly unthinkable for Marshall even a month ago.

The Thundering Herd are just a 4.5-point underdog to the Mountaineers, a testament to the shift in public perception following their 59-0 rout of Eastern Kentucky 2 weeks ago.  This game also represents the rare senior vs. freshman quarterback battle, as Marshall trots out Grant Wells (R-FR) and App State turns to 5th-year senior Zac Thomas. Despite Wells’ fantastic debut (307 yards, 4 TDs), I’ll be siding with the Mountaineers and their veteran offense on Saturday. 

Getaway game: Betting against teams in baseball in their last game of a series before flying off to play another opponent is a well-established tactic in the gambling community. It taps into human nature, specifically the tendency to view the last game in a series in a “let’s get this over with” fashion. Because of COVID-19, Austin Peay will only be playing 3 games this fall, the last of which will come Saturday at Cincinnati.

The Governors were filled with optimism when they took the field in the first game of the college football season against Central Arkansas, but the air has come out of the balloon considerably since then. APSU dropped that contest to UCA and subsequentially was waxed by Pitt on the road 55-0.

Cincy has opened as a 33.5-point favorite and seems primed to boat race an outmatched and sluggish FCS opponent. The Govs want this season to end, and the Bearcats will oblige them in a blowout on Saturday at Nippert Stadium.