At this point, there’s no disputing that Tennessee and Arkansas are two of the most hyped SEC programs entering the 2015 season.

Along with that distinction comes an inevitable boost for the perception of the head coaches involved.

As expected, both Butch Jones and Bret Bielema are on the receiving end of some high praise from fans and media alike after showing tangible improvement within their programs in the 2014 season.

Coming off 7-6 records and second-season bowl victories, there are some parallels between Jones and Bielema as they begin their third year in charge.

Which one will come away from the 2015 in the best shape?

Let’s try to figure that out by breaking down each coach’s situation:

2015 roster

Jones
Tennessee is tied with Vanderbilt for the most returning starters for the 2015 season, though that includes guard Marcus Jackson (torn biceps). The Vols are settled with QB Joshua Dobbs running the offense and almost all of his skill-position players returning. On defense, the Vols return a pair of defensive ends with double-digit sack totals (Curt Maggitt and Derek Barnett), as well as an experienced secondary led by CB Cameron Sutton.

Bielema
Arkansas is not far behind with Bielema expected to field 14 returning starters of his own in 2015. But that number includes star RB Jonathan Williams, who will miss the season after a foot injury sustained during fall camp. QB Brandon Allen is one of the league’s most experienced signal callers, and several pieces from one of the league’s best defenses return.

Advantage: Jones, by the narrowest of margins.

2015 Schedule

Jones

Out of conference: Bowling Green, Oklahoma, Western Carolina, North Texas
Home conference: Arkansas, Georgia, South Carolina, Vanderbilt
Road conference: Florida, Alabama, Kentucky, Missouri

Bielema

Out of conference: UTEP, Toledo, Texas Tech, UT-Martin
Home conference: Texas A&M (neutral site), Auburn, Mississippi State, Missouri
Road conference: Tennessee, Alabama, Ole Miss, LSU

The out-of-conference slates are pretty similar. Both Arkansas and Tennessee host Big 12, Conference USA and MAC schools as well as an FCS opponent. Tennessee has the toughest draw with a game against Oklahoma looming in Week 2. As for the conference schedules, Alabama and Missouri are common opponents, leaving just five different games aside from their head-to-head matchup on Oct. 3. Among those games that differ, Tennessee draws games against Kentucky and Vanderbilt, whereas Arkansas will give up a home game for a neutral-site meeting with Texas A&M and must run the gauntlet of the SEC West.

Advantage: Jones. While his out-of-conference draw is slightly harder, it is Bielema who gets the short end of the stick with his eight conference games.

2015 fan expectations

Jones
There’s a saying in Tennessee: “It’s starting to feel like ’98 again.” Fans use it when the Vols do something well, remembering the BCS national championship after the 1998 season. That phrase has been uttered more and more during the Butch Jones tenure, both due to the uptick recruiting quality and the return to the postseason. While that’s good for momentum, it will turn into expectations of 10-plus wins per season as soon as 2015. Another 7-6 season will not be good enough for most Tennessee fans.

Bielema
This is the area in which Bielema has a decided advantage. While the Bobby Petrino years were fun for Arkansas fans, the John L. Smith season showed them just how fleeting success can be. Plus, Bielema’s success in the SEC West in 2014 surprised even the most optimistic Arkansas fans after he struggled so badly in 2013 (3-9, 0-8 SEC). While expectations on the rise in Fayetteville, there’s also the understanding that the SEC West is a brutal division. If Bielema were to finish the 2015 season at 7-6 again, perhaps with a one-win improvement in the regular season, there would be unhappy folks, but I think most would find it acceptable provided the team showed tangible progress.

Advantage: Bielema. He needs fewer wins than Jones does to win the perception war with his fan base this season.

The Verdict

The winner of this popularity contest between Bielema and Jones may be settled on the field. The Oct. 3 meeting between the Vols and Hogs is a pivotal one for the direction of both teams’ seasons.

With several out-of-conference wins likely in the early-season schedule, there’s a reasonable chance both teams enter the game sporting 4-1 or 5-0 records. The winner will set itself up for a strong second half of the season with an all-important conference win.

Arkansas follows the meeting with games against Alabama and Auburn, while Tennessee will play Georgia and Alabama. Whichever team loses the head-to-head match-up at Neyland Stadium is at risk of a three-game losing streak that could derail the season.

For Bielema to show progress in Year 3, improving upon his 2-14 record against SEC opponents is a more realistic goal than competing for a SEC West title against the likes of Alabama and Auburn.

Meanwhile, the expectation for progress in Year 3 for Jones has been set at competing in an SEC East race that is open for the taking.

The coach that comes closest to meeting these goals will be the one with the better reputation at the end of the season.