Twenty members of the two most prominent All-SEC teams are back in action this fall.

Recent history suggests that many first-team players will repeat their status, but second-teamers are less predictable. Let’s take a look at how members of the 2015 team fared last season.

From 2015 to 2016

From the 2015 Associated Press All-SEC team, nine first-team members returned for the 2016 season. Here’s their All-SEC status from last year:

  • Alabama OT Cam Robinson – first team
  • LSU RB Leonard Fournette – second team
  • Auburn K Daniel Carlson – first team
  • Texas A&M WR Christian Kirk – first team
  • Texas A&M DE Myles Garrett – second team
  • Alabama DL Jonathan Allen – first team
  • Vanderbilt LB Zach Cunningham – first team
  • Florida CB Jalen Tabor – first team
  • Georgia S Dominick Sanders – did not make team

For those keeping score, that’s six first-team repeats while two dropped to the second team and one failed to make the team at all. Somewhat ironically, the drops to the second team were the first two SEC players taken in the 2017 NFL Draft, Garrett and Fournette.

Thirteen of the 2015 AP second-team members were back for the 2016 season. They were less predictable than their first-team counterparts:

  • Mississippi State WR Fred Ross – first team
  • Arkansas WR Drew Morgan – did not make team
  • Alabama WR Calvin Ridley – did not make team
  • Arkansas OL Dan Skipper – first team
  • Auburn OL Braden Smith – first team
  • Ole Miss QB Chad Kelly – second team
  • Tennessee RB Jalen Hurd – did not make team
  • Tennessee RS Evan Berry – did not make team
  • Tennessee DE Derek Barnett – first team
  • Ole Miss DE Marquis Haynes – did not make team
  • Missouri DL Charles Harris – second team
  • South Carolina LB Skai Moore – did not make team (injured)
  • LSU CB Tre’Davious White – first team
  • LSU S Jamal Adams – first team
  • Florida P Johnny Townsend – second team

Moving up to the first-team was the most common thing for the 2015 second-team members who returned for another season, as six players took that step. Five active players (Moore missed the season due to injury), however, failed to make the AP team at all a second time. The remaining three repeated as second-teamers.

The SEC coaches also vote on an All-SEC team every year. One has to wonder how much a coach (or in all likelihood the sports information director) gets to watch players in the opposite division. There’s also the quirk that coaches cannot vote for their own players. That said, making the coaches’ team is still a high honor.

Often times, the writers and coaches agree for the most part. Here are some differences, however, concerning members of the 2015 All-SEC coaches team and how they fared in 2016:

  • Ross did a reverse with the coaches, dropping from first-team in 2015 to second-team in 2016.
  • Evan Engram moved up from second-team in 2015 to first-team in 2016.
  • The coaches were higher on Evan Berry than the writers were both years. He was a first-teamer in 2015, and a second-teamer in 2016 as a return specialist.
  • Ridley was a repeat second-teamer.

2016 to 2017: Who gets better? Who might not be back?

Here are the members of the 2016 All-SEC teams with returning eligibility:

  • Texas A&M WR Christian Kirk (AP first team, Coaches’ first team)
  • Alabama QB Jalen Hurts (AP-1, Coaches-1)
  • Auburn RB Kamryn Pettway (AP-1, Coaches-1)
  • LSU RB Derrius Guice (AP-1, Coaches-1)
  • Alabama DB Minkah Fitzpatrick (AP-1, Coaches-1)
  • Auburn K Daniel Carlson (AP-1, Coaches-1)
  • LSU OL Will Clapp (Coaches-1)
  • Auburn OL Braden Smith (AP-1, Coaches-2)
  • Florida OL Martez Ivey (AP-2, Coaches-2)
  • Alabama WR Calvin Ridley (Coaches-2)
  • Alabama OL Ross Pierschbacher (AP-2)
  • LSU DL/LB Arden Key (AP-1, Coaches-2)
  • Vanderbilt RB Ralph Webb (AP-2, Coaches-2)
  • Arkansas C Frank Ragnow (AP-2)
  • Alabama OT Jonah Williams (AP-2)
  • Missouri WR J’Mon Moore (AP-2)
  • Kentucky LB Jordan Jones (Coaches-2)
  • Alabama P JK Scott (AP-1, Coaches-1)
  • Florida P Johnny Townsend (AP-2, Coaches-2)
  • Tennessee RS Evan Berry (Coaches-2)

As we’ve seen from above, first-teamers who come back the next season almost always make the All-SEC team again; many repeat on the first team.

As for returning All-SEC players likely to get better in 2017, that list starts with Guice. Despite having to share the LSU backfield with Leonard Fournette (when healthy), Guice earned first-team honors from both the AP and the SEC coaches.

Guice averaged an eye-popping 7.58 yards per carry on 183 rushes, a number that cannot be dismissed as a small sample size as it was the eighth most rushes by an SEC ball-carrier last season. He is almost certainly in line for more carries in 2017. Four SEC rushers topped the 200-carry mark in 2016, led by Webb at 250.

On a weekly average, the SEC’s overall leading rusher in 2016 was Pettway with 122.4 yards per game. Pettway will be an interesting one to watch in 2017. The Tigers have switched offensive coordinators – from Rhett Lashlee to Chip Lindsey – and are expected to throw more in 2017 than last season. A better passing offense may open up more opportunities for Pettway, but it could also lower his carries (209 in 2016).

Hurts is in a similar situation with a new offensive coordinator and potential change in philosophy. As a freshman, many of Hurts highlight plays came when he was free to use his legs. Nick Saban and new offensive coordinator Brian Daboll have focused on developing Hurts more as a passer and less as a runner this offseason. While it’s unlikely he doesn’t make the team at all in 2017, Hurts will likely face stiff competition for first-team quarterback from Jarrett Stidham, Nick Fitzgerald, Jacob Eason and others.

As far as moving up, Arkansas C Frank Ragnow looks likely to make the jump from second-team to first-team. Pro Football Focus named Ragnow its best offensive lineman and run-blocker in 2016. Hogs coach Bret Bielema considers Ragnow so important he kept him out of contact drills this spring to avoid any chance of injury. He’ll likely bump LSU’s Will Clapp from the first team.

The writers and coaches did not agree on which team Key and Smith belonged on in 2016, but both appear well-positioned to be first-teamers in 2017. Key missed spring, but he has the talent to make up for that.

Townsend will likely go down as the best punter in Florida history, but the first-team All-SEC honor may elude him with JK Scott back at Alabama. Another Florida second-teamer, Ivey, is changing positions this offseason, which could hurt their chances of repeating. Ivey made the team as a guard, and is moving to his more natural (but more challenging) position of left tackle.

Kirk has made the team as both a return specialist and wide receiver. His chances of making it at wide receiver again in 2017 might depend on how Texas A&M’s quarterback competition plays out this fall.