Over the past several years, the annual Cocktail Party game between Georgia and Florida in Jacksonville has served as a de facto SEC East championship.

This year, both teams are atop the division, as expected. The Bulldogs enter the matchup at 4-1 following a win at Kentucky, while the Gators dropped Missouri at home to jump to 3-1 in their first game since Oct. 10.

Plenty will be on the line when the 2 teams meet at TIAA Bank Stadium, but who will hold the edge? According to ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI), the Dawgs will come out on top for the 4th straight time as the FPI Matchup Predictor gives them a 63.8 percent chance to beat the Gators.

For those unfamiliar, here is how ESPN calculates its FPI:

The Football Power Index (FPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team’s performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule.
Ratings and projections update daily. FPI data from seasons prior to 2019 may not be complete.
The Bulldogs and Gators will kick off at 3:30 pm ET. Brad Nessler, Gary Danielson and sideline reporter Jamie Erdahl will be on hand to call the game on CBS.