1. I don’t want to get on a soapbox, but …

The worst thing that happened to Auburn last weekend was Alabama’s underachieving first half in a trampling of poor, outmanned Citadel.

Now Nick Saban has the attention of his uber-talented team like never before in this cakewalk of a regular season.

And that’s bad news for Auburn coach Gus Malzahn.

I don’t care how many votes of confidence the Auburn administration floats out there, getting annihilated in the Iron Bowl is never good for coaching security. It won’t be for Malzahn now, it wasn’t for those before him.

“That game,” Tommy Tuberville told me years ago, “is a season unto itself.”

Mal Moore gave Alabama coach Mike Shula a vote of confidence in early November of 2006, then fired him after an Iron Bowl loss and hired You Know Who.

Tuberville lost the Iron Bowl in 2008 for the first time in seven years – In Seven Years – and was fired after that humiliating 31-0 loss.

Gene Chizik, two years removed from winning the national title, was fired by Auburn at the end of a miserable season – and after a 49-0 loss in the Iron Bowl.

When you’re teetering with either fan base, all it takes is one uncomfortable – and here’s the key, inevitable – loss in the biggest game of the season for those involved in the hiring/firing process to embrace stupid.

In any other time with just about any other contract, Malzahn has probably earned this uncomfortable moment. But you don’t need to be a CPA to realize the financial irresponsibility of firing Malzhan and paying him $32.1 million in buyout money.

It’s absolute lunacy.

Even though Auburn has woefully underachieved and the coaching staff has badly misused quarterback Jarrett Stidham (more on that later), how can Auburn president Steven Leath unload that kind of cash to get rid of a coach after pushing all his burnt orange and blue chips to the center of the table 11 months ago when giving Malzahn his current extension, thereby causing all of this Auburn agita?

Leath would essentially be admitting that he made a $49 million mistake. And $49 million mistakes, everyone, usually come with a pink slip.

You don’t need to be a CPA to realize the financial irresponsibility of firing Malzhan and paying him $32.1 million in buyout money.

That’s not to say that the SEC hasn’t already had its share of stupid. Like it or not, this is reality now after what Saban has built at Alabama.

Everyone else is playing for second, and playing for second is no fun in the big, bad SEC. So what do you do? You spend cash like a drunken sailor on a weekend furlough. Arkansas gave Bret Beilema $11.9 million to not coach. LSU initially agreed to give Les Miles $11 million – and it was since decreased to pave the way for Miles to accept the Kansas job.

The closest thing to what Auburn is considering – and don’t kid yourself, there are heavy-handed and deep-pocket Auburn boosters who are on board with change – is what Texas A&M did after last season. The Aggies fired Kevin Sumlin, paid him $10.4 million to not coach, and then hired Jimbo Fisher from Florida State for a guaranteed $75 million deal.

You want to catch Saban, Auburn? Your price tag begins at $50 million less than what Texas A&M paid to fire a coach and get the best coach available. Now add the price to pay another coach $7 million a year over five or six years, and the total buyout of Malzhan would land Auburn in exclusive Texas A&M company.

Absolute lunacy.

2. The road to nowhere

How in the world did it fall so quickly for Malzahn? It began, one SEC coach told me last week, the day Malzahn signed Stidham.

“First thing I would’ve done – the very first thing – would’ve been to contact someone who worked at Baylor with Art (Briles) and asked if I could pick his brain,” an SEC coach told me. “But (coaches) are stubborn. We just are. We don’t want someone else telling us you need to do X, Y, and Z and he can do for you what he did for us. We think we can make him fit into what we do. Big mistake.”

Two NFL scouts I spoke to said the initial red flag with Stidham should have been last year, when the Tigers (and Stidham) struggled for much of the first half of the season.

Credit: John Reed-USA TODAY Sports

They got better in late October and November – and against Alabama – because Stidham finally had become more comfortable in an ill-fitted offense and because Malzahn was finally letting offensive coordinator Chip Lindsey spread the field more and use Stidham’s arm talent.

Then came this fall, when Auburn arrived with a rebuilt offensive line, and a new offensive line coach (JB Grimes, in his second stint with Malzahn at Auburn). While the Tigers have given up fewer sacks this season (36 in 2017; 20 in 2018), the run game has suffered.

Auburn is averaging 3.83 yards per carry in SEC games, after averaging 5.13 per carry last season. When you can’t run the ball with consistency, you force the offense through a passing game that isn’t built to beat teams.

Malzahn’s passing game is built to complement the power run game, with numerous “phone booth sets” that keep the Tigers’ receivers in bunches inside the numbers and gives a coverage advantage to the defense.

The Baylor offense under Briles has receivers at the numbers, spreading the field and allowing the quarterback to use his arm talent to make throws against man coverage, or his defensive knowledge to make throws against zone or multiple coverages.

“(Stidham) is doing all of those misdirection play fakes in a phone booth, and by the time he looks up, everything has changed from pre-snap,” one NFL scout told me. “Snap the ball, throw the ball. Snap the ball, one play fake, throw the ball. It’s not that difficult.”

3. Saving Gus, The Epilogue

The first thing every new athletic director does within the first few months on the job is research a list of potential replacements for the football coach.

This isn’t because every AD wants change; it’s because in the fluid, turnover-based industry, you never know what can happen.

That said, where does Auburn go if it fires a coach who has proven he can beat Nick Saban’s Alabama behemoth? Those guys don’t simply fall off coaching trees.

Another potential stumbling block: hiring an elite coach, more than likely, means paying for the coach to get out of his current contract. That number could push Auburn over Texas A&M’s $85 million expense.

Hiring Iowa State’s Matt Campbell ($7 million buyout), or West Virginia’s Dana Holgorsen ($2 million) or Mike Leach at Washington State ($1.8 million) is going to be a significant outlay.

If Auburn were to hire, say, Mike Norvell of Memphis ($500,000) or Scott Satterfield of Appalachian State ($425,000), the cost is minimal. But if you’re already coming up with as much as $77 million to fire a coach and hire another, what’s another $5-10 million in buyout money?

4. What is and what will never be

Follow along, everyone, as we play it’s only the truth if you believe it. Or Hot Take City in the SEC (hey, I’m guilty, too). Here are some of my weaker ones this season.

Week 1 bold statement: Beating Washington will give Auburn nonconference heft to the schedule and allow the Tigers to lose to Alabama, not win the West Division and still get into the College Football Playoff.

Reality: Hello, 5 losses.

*****

Week 2 bold statement: If Texas A&M can beat Clemson (the Aggies got hosed by officials), it can play with anyone in the SEC.

Reality: 2018? Meet 2017, and 2016 and 2015 …

*****

Week 6 bold statement: QB Feleipe Franks finally turned the corner under new coach Dan Mullen in Florida’s win over LSU.

Reality: I’d be shocked if Emory Jones wasn’t the Gators’ starter in 2019 (which is also Hot Take City material).

*****

Week 7 bold statement: LSU is a legitimate threat to Alabama after routing Georgia.

Reality: 29-0.

*****

Week 9 bold statement: Kentucky might just be a team of destiny after an unthinkable win over Missouri.

Reality: Georgia happened. Then, for the love of all things Bluegrass, so did Tennessee.

*****

Week 10 bold statement: No one is beating Alabama.

Reality: We all nailed that one.

5. The Weekly Five

Five picks against the spread special rivalry addition (bonus picks!):

  • Mississippi State (-9.5) at Ole Miss
  • Arkansas at Missouri (-21)
  • Kentucky (-17.5) at Louisville
  • South Carolina at Clemson (-25)
  • Georgia Tech (+17.5) at Georgia
  • Florida at Florida State (+4)
  • LSU at Texas A&M (-1)
  • Auburn at Alabama (-24.5)

Last week: 2-3.
Season: 29-27-3

6. The return of Hugh Freeze

Look for former Ole Miss coach Hugh Freeze to return to the game next season as an offensive coordinator, most likely in the SEC.

Numerous SEC coaches I have spoken to expect Freeze, who resigned at Ole Miss prior to the 2017 season before being fired by the university for breaking the moral turpitude clause in his contract, was interviewed by at least five SEC schools prior to this season.

Alabama coach Nick Saban wanted to hire Freeze as co-offensive coordinator before SEC commissioner Greg Sankey intervened because Freeze would be back coaching in the league while his former school still was serving NCAA sanctions from his time in Oxford.

The Ole Miss bowl sanctions end after this season, and Freeze has told numerous SEC coaches that he’s interested in returning to the league. A month ago, he was named offensive coordinator of the Arizona Hotshots of the spring league Alliance of American Football.

But he may never coach a down for the AAF team.

Freeze’s good friend in the coaching fraternity is Auburn coach Gus Malzahn, who could be looking for an offensive coordinator/quarterbacks coach after this season. Another possibility is LSU, where Tigers coach Ed Orgeron hired Freeze in 2005 to join his Ole Miss staff. Kentucky could also be looking for an offensive coordinator after this season.

7. Rivalry Week: It’s more than the hate

It’s Rivalry Week, and that can only mean one thing: who wants it most? A look at the drama unfolding:

1. Tennessee plays at Vanderbilt in a critical game for the future of both programs: The winner advances to the bowl season (and 15 extra practices); the loser focuses on recruiting and spring practice.

Vanderbilt has won 4 of the past 6 in the series (including the past two), and has scored at least 41 points in 3 of the 4 wins. Just how far has Tennessee fallen in this series? Prior to this recent streak, Vanderbilt hadn’t scored 40 points on the Vols since 1923.

2. An obvious choice for redemption: Mississippi State quarterback Nick Fitzgerald, whose season ended in last year’s Egg Bowl when he sustained a broken bone in his leg. The 31-28 home loss prevented the Bulldogs from winning 10 games for only the fourth time in school history.

With a win, Joe Moorhead can tie the school record for most wins by a first year coach (8), and can break the record in the bowl season.

3. Florida has lost five consecutive to Florida State, the Seminoles’ longest win streak in the series. This is a big game for Franks, who played poorly in an ugly loss to rival Georgia and can’t afford another uneven performance in another rivalry game.

8. Ask and you shall receive

Matt: I’m trying to figure out the bowl season and if my Tigers will play in the Dome. Can you help?

Kevin Shuler
New Orleans

Kevin: It’s pretty cut and dry for LSU: beat Texas A&M, and the Tigers will finish in the top 12 and earn a New Year’s 6 Bowl, most likely the Sugar Bowl in New Orleans.

There are four at-large spots in the New Year’s 6 bowls, and one is taken by the highest-ranked Group of 5 team (currently UCF). That means the three-highest-ranked Power 5 schools not playing in the College Football Playoff will play in NY6 bowls.

The loser of the SEC Championship Game is also a lock for an NY6 game, and Florida, if it wins impressively at FSU, could also lock up a spot. Remember, the committee selects the teams and tries to put together the most attractive games.

LSU vs. the Big 12 champion (Oklahoma or West Virginia?) is a sellout in New Orleans, and Georgia vs. the Big 12 runner-up is an attractive game for the Peach Bowl, and a likely sellout.

That leaves Florida – if it beats FSU – playing UCF in the Fiesta Bow. A terrific game for television with the natural big brother/little brother matchup, but an absolute dog for ticket sales.

Remember, the NY6 bowls are all about getting good television matchups first, selling tickets second.

Now, the downside: If Florida loses, it also loses a chance at a New Year’s 6 bowl. If LSU loses, the Tigers might drop past No.12 in the final CFP rankings and lose the spot, too.

9. Numbers game

356. That’s Georgia Tech’s rushing average in its current 4-game winning streak, but that number is deceiving.

A majority of the heavy lifting came during blowouts against two bad defenses: Virginia Tech (465 yards rushing) and North Carolina (461 yards rushing). Georgia has a top 30 run defense, but has had problems stopping the run at times this season: LSU (275 yards), Florida (175 yards) and Missouri (172 yards) all ran with consistency.

Georgia Tech is running with confidence over the past six weeks of the season, and senior QB TaQuon Marshall is healthy. If the Jackets don’t have ball security issues, don’t be surprised if it’s a fourth-quarter game.

10. Quote to note

“We’re not going to just lay down and back down from those guys,” Auburn fullback Chandler Cox, after last weekend’s win over Liberty, on playing Alabama.