In a bold attempt to handicap the SEC West, a notoriously difficult division to predict heading into the 2015 season, we’ve decided to rank the division across several categories.

On Friday, we’ll compile the rankings to project the 2015 standings. Here are the previous installments:

Today we’ve ranked the SEC West X factors.

Some of the factors I studied include 2014 record in close games, number of returning starters, special teams, 2014 fumble recovery rate, turnover margin, bye week placement and strength of schedule.

1. OLE MISS REBELS

Positives: Urgency, returning starters, return to health, strength of schedule, defensive takeaways

Negatives: Bye week placement

Whereas programs like Alabama, Auburn and LSU feel a constant urgency that at some point becomes white noise, this is a put up or shut up season in Oxford like the Rebels haven’t been through in a long time.

Ole Miss landed a quartet of five-star players in its historic 2013 recruiting class. The team could lose all four — remarkable, when you think about it — to the NFL draft as early entrants. All four — again, remarkable — could get drafted in the first round. So the team is more desperate than most to win big and win now.

It helps that the Rebels return an SEC West-best 17 starters from the 2014 team, according to Phil Steele. Many of those — including Laremy Tunsil and Laquon Treadwell — missed the end of last season due to major injuries, so there’s even more hidden value for Ole Miss.

The team’s Landshark defense led the SEC with 32 takeaways last season and should be very effective again in ’15 with playmakers at every level. If the team can find a ballhawk or two in the secondary on par with the departed Senquez Golson, expect a lot of takeaways again this fall.

The schedule is pretty favorable overall, with crossover games against Vanderbilt and Florida and not a single power-conference opponent outside of the SEC. But the Rebels must travel to Alabama and Auburn. And the team doesn’t get a bye week until mid-November, so it will be forced to play 10 consecutive games to open the season.

2. AUBURN TIGERS

Positives: Fumble recovery percentage, more favorable schedule

Negatives: Strength of schedule, special teams, bye week placement

The SEC has reduced its bye weeks from two to one this season, and Auburn drew the short end of the straw. It gets a week off after playing San Jose State — a game in which the starters won’t need to play much — and before Kentucky, which it should beat even if the teams played the week after the Iron Bowl.

Thanks to a crossover game against Georgia and an early-season tilt with Louisville, the Tigers face a very tough schedule, even by SEC West standards. But, and this is crucial, the team gets Louisville at a “neutral” site in Atlanta (after traveling to Kansas State on a Thursday night last season) and plays UGA, Alabama, Mississippi State and Ole Miss at home this season.

That’s huge. The Tigers had to play five brutal road games last year. A game at LSU early in the season will be difficult, but the overall schedule in ’15 is much better suited for a team that wants to win a division title.

Another huge plus: Auburn was the most unlucky team in the conference last year regarding fumble recovery percentage, hopping on a measly 10 of 40 fumbles (theirs or their opponents) in 2014. So the team could benefit in a major way, as average luck would’ve granted the team an additional 10 possessions last season.

Auburn finished in the bottom half of the conference covering kickoffs and punts last year and also lost Quan Bray, an excellent returner. The team doesn’t have an All-American candidate at punter like Alabama, LSU and Texas A&M.

3. ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE

Positives: Bye week placement, fumble recovery percentage, JK Scott

Negatives: Strength of schedule, turnover margin, bye week placement

On the plus side, the Tide may have the nation’s bust punter in JK Scott, a hidden value of sorts. And the team got very unlucky with fumbles last season, recovering just 10 of 31. So Alabama can expect to come out better in 2015 when the ball hits the field.

The team’s bye week also comes at a good time, in between tricky, winnable games against Tennessee and LSU. The Tide has gone from the clear No. 1 team in the conference to one of a few teams at the top, so every edge it can get that allows it to win the games it’s supposed to, that’s a significant bonus. At the same time, three of Alabama’s eight SEC opponents get a bye week before playing coach Nick Saban’s bunch, which balances out that advantage.

The downside is that in addition to playing the SEC West schedule, Bama faces Wisconsin early in the season with plenty of question marks at quarterback and other positions. It would be nice to get a chance to work out the kinks against a less threatening first opponent. Alabama also gets Georgia and Tennessee in crossover games, potentially the top two teams in the SEC East this season.

Alabama’s secondary has to get better at making plays on the ball. Until we see progress, that’s a negative for this team. The Tide produced only 11 interceptions last season, half as many as Ole Miss and Auburn. The ’14 Alabama team was very rare — an SEC champion with a negative turnover margin.

4. LSU TIGERS

Positives: Strength of schedule, special teams, bye week placement

Negatives: Fumble recovery rate, participated in a lot of close games in 2014

The Tigers played in a whopping seven one-possession games last year, finishing 4-3 in those contests. It’s tough to compete for an SEC West championship without mixing in several blowouts. To put it another way, if you play Russian roulette enough times in a row, eventually something bad is going to happen.

To me, LSU just isn’t a dominant team right now. They’re merely good. That means the Tigers are going to be in a lot of knock-down, drag-out battles like the games against Ole Miss and Alabama last season. You win some of those and you lose some of those.

The team also recovered a very lucky 64.1 percent of its fumbles in 2014. If you’re nerdy enough to be familiar with analytics, fumble recovery rates revert to the mean (50 percent) in the long run, so LSU may be due for a correction there.

On the plus side, the team has put so much emphasis on recruiting punters and kickers, always fields an outstanding returner and is so loaded at defensive back that its coverage teams are top-notch. So special teams is a hidden value for the Tigers, and could be best-in-the-SEC good.

The team also enjoys its lone bye week before facing Alabama, so that’s another positive.

A final huge benefit: LSU faces the second-easiest schedule in the SEC, based on 2014 winning percentage. It’s by far easier than that of Arkansas, Alabama and Auburn.

5. TEXAS A&M AGGIES

Positives: Special teams, bye week placement

Negatives: Defensive takeaways, strength of schedule

The Aggies’ defense just didn’t take the ball away from opponents in 2014. The team intercepted five passes. Five. That’s an unbelievable number considering A&M played Lamar, a gosh-awful SMU team, Louisiana-Monroe and Rice. It also tied the team for 121st in the country (out of 128 FBS programs).

It’s also the opposite approach that the team should take with its defense. A&M scores points in bunches, so it can afford to trade a few big plays for its opponent for some takeaways, sacks and mistakes. Defensive coordinator John Chavis brings a more aggressive philosophy to College Station, Texas, but he can’t expect to get the Aggies unit on par with recent LSU defenses in terms of takeaways in just one season. Not with as bad as the team was last year.

The team avoids Georgia, Missouri and Tennessee this year in crossover games, but still faces Arizona State in a difficult non-conference game to open the season. It’s crucial if Texas A&M wants to have an outstanding season. Lose there and you still face games against Alabama, Auburn, LSU and Ole Miss, likely as underdogs (preseason, at least).

Speaking of the Tide, at least the Aggies get a bye week before facing Alabama. The team would love to erase the 59-0 embarrassment of ’14. And special teams should add some value for A&M this year despite the departure of excellent kicker Josh Lambo. Punter Drew Kaser returns as one of the best in the country, and Speedy Noil is dynamic as a returner.

6. MISSISSIPPI STATE BULLDOGS

Positives: Playing time for 2014 backups, laughable non-conference schedule, bye week placement

Negatives: Loss of so many starters

The Bulldogs field a middle-of-the-pack special teams unit and recovered pretty close to 50 percent of the fumbles in their 2014 games. The overall schedule also is relatively average by SEC standards. There aren’t many X factors for Mississippi State this year, at least on paper.

The crux for this program is personnel. The team lost seven starters on offense and eight on defense according to Phil Steele, ranking Mississippi State last by far in terms of returning starters in the SEC. (For perspective, the team’s seven returning starters rank 126th out of 128 in the FBS, according to Steele.)

Dan Mullen plays his backups very often, and especially last year. I asked him a few weeks ago whether that was intentional in 2014 to prepare for this season, or just part of his general philosophy. He punted, saying that he likes to play anyone on his roster who earns time. But it doesn’t hurt that so many of this year’s replacements got significant time a year ago.

Still, the lack of continuity and talent drain is a negative for the Bulldogs.

The team does enjoy a critical bye week before traveling to Faurot Field to take on two-time defending SEC East champion Missouri on a Thursday night. And the team’s non-conference schedule is laughable. Louisiana Tech is a decent lower-tier FBS team, but it’s homecoming and defensive coordinator Manny Diaz coached for those Bulldogs last year. Others include still-bad Southern Miss, languishing Troy and FCS opponent Northwestern State.

7. ARKANSAS RAZORBACKS

Positives: 2014 record in close games, turnover margin, bye week placement

Negatives: Strength of schedule, special teams, limited changes from 2015

The Razorbacks lost all five one-possession games last season. Normally that’s a great sign, meaning the team probably was better than its 7-6 record indicated. Personally, as I mentioned in the offensive rankings, I don’t think Arkansas is built well on that side of the ball in certain situations — one of those being when the team trails in the fourth quarter against a good SEC defense.

Overall, this is the crux of Arkansas’ X factor this season. The Razorbacks are going to be so similar to last year, both in style and personnel, that it’s difficult to see how the Hogs can make this giant leap forward — unless the team starts winning those close games.

One added benefit of the team’s style is that the offense doesn’t turn the ball over that often, so Arkansas can expect a positive turnover margin. And the team’s bye week splits what would otherwise be back-to-back games against Alabama and Auburn.

Based on 2014 results, the Razorbacks face by far the toughest schedule in the SEC, including a whopping 10 bowl opponents. The special teams also rank near the bottom of the SEC in several preseason polls, including ESPN.com. Arkansas must replace punter Sam Irwin-Hill and returner Korliss Marshall, and can’t boast one of the SEC’s best placekickers either.