How does this LSU team compare to Les Miles' best contenders

Some folks look at the 17 returning starters LSU has from its 9-3 2015 team and conclude that this is a Tigers team that could finally break the Alabama jinx and return to national championship competition.

Others look at the Tigers’ recent pattern of not winning big games — most notably against Alabama — and conclude they are contenders on paper only.

Which one is it?

Perhaps the best way compare is to look at the two Les Miles teams that played for national championships — the 2007 team that won it all with a 12-2 record, and the 2011 team that went 13-0 before bowing 21-0 to Alabama in the BCS title game.

How did those teams look compared to this team as the season began? Let’s take a look.

Program expectations

2007: LSU went 11-2 the season prior to its national championship run with losses to Auburn and Florida derailing the Tigers title hopes. The Tigers lost No. 1 overall draft pick JaMarcus Russell and top receiver Dwayne Bowe off that team, but had a solid nucleus returning. The Tigers entered the season ranked No. 2 in the AP Top 25 poll behind USC.

2011: LSU went 11-2 the year before with a loss to Cam Newton and Auburn and a surprising loss to Arkansas separating the Tigers from a title run. The Tigers lost Patrick Peterson from that team, but generally had a lot of returning stars and entered the season as a preseason No. 4.

2016: Coming off a 9-3 season where Miles nearly lost his job, the Tigers clearly were further away from the ultimate prize than the 2006 and 2010 teams were. But it’s arguable that this team, with 17 returning starters including Heisman Trophy hopeful Leonard Fournette, has more star power returning. Russell and Peterson, the best players on the 2006 and 2010 teams, were gone the next year. This team has the good fortune of returning its best player.

Offensive line

2007: The Tigers lost two starters from the 2006 team, but not had a lot of star power back with tackle Ciron Black, center Brett Helms and guard Herman Johnson. There was excitement that it might have a fourth starter back in the injured Will Arnold, but Arnold never fully recovered from his injuries and didn’t have much impact.

2011: LSU was solid with four returning starters with only Joe Barksdale lost from the 2010 team. But the group was led by Will Blackwell, P.J. Lonergan, Josh Dworaczyk and Alex Hurst all returning.

2016: The Tigers returned three starters and caught a break when center Ethan Pocic (below) opted to return for his senior year. But there are question marks at tackle where the Tigers lost two solid starters in Jerald Hawkins and Vadal Alexander.

Credit: Mark Konezny-USA TODAY Sports

Comparison: With both tackles lost, this year’s line appears to have a few more question marks than the 2007 and 2011 teams.

Receivers

2007: LSU not only lost Russell, but also a favorite target in Dwayne Bowe and talented No. 3 receiver Craig Davis. The Tigers did return No. 2 receiver Early Doucet and Brandon LaFell was an unproven No. 2 who proved to be pretty good.

2011: A passing challenged team did return its two best receivers in Reuben Randle and Russell Shepard. Also back was top tight end DeAngelo Patterson.

2016: This LSU team has two players back who have led the team in receiving, Malachi Dupre (in 2015) and Travin Dural (in 2014). Like the 2011 team, it also returns its top tight end (Colin Jeter). But like the 2011 team, it’s coming off a year where it was near the bottom of the league in passing.

Comparison: In retrospect, the 2007 pairing of Doucet and LaFell looks great, but in August of 2007, LaFell was an unproven sophomore with five career catches. Considering that, LSU looks to be in a good spot with two proven receivers to anchor the group.

Quarterback

2007: LSU had just lost the No. 1 overall draft pick in Russell, but there was some faith in Matt Flynn, a senior career backup who earned some confidence by leading the Tigers to a 40-3 win over Miami in the Chick-fil-A Bowl his sophomore year.

2011: LSU had two quarterbacks with starting experience returning, but there didn’t seem to be much confidence in either Jordan Jefferson or Jarrett Lee. A bar fight that involved Jefferson led to Lee winning the starting job early, then Jefferson eventually took over.

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2016: Brandon Harris returns for his second year as a starter, but like Jefferson and Lee, that doesn’t mean much as he struggled down the stretch the year before. The hope is Danny Etling, a former starter at Purdue, will help bring the best out of Harris through preseason competition.

Credit: Mark Konezny-USA TODAY Sports

Comparison: None of the three teams revolved around the quarterback, but if Harris can approach Flynn’s 21 touchdown passes, these Tigers will be much more difficult to defend.

Running back

2007: There was no dominant back returning, but LSU did have a solid stable back that included eventual 1,000-yard rusher Jacob Hester, Keiland Williams, Alley Broussard and Charles Scott.

2011: There were some question marks following the loss of 1,000-yard rusher Stevan Ridley off the 2010 teams, but there was a lot of optimism as LSU had recruited well and had a group returning that included Spencer Ware and Alfred Blue.

2016: Everything is back including maybe the best player in the country in Leonard Fournette. Backup Derrius Guice is one of the nation’s best sophomore backs.

Comparison: There is none. This group of running backs may be the best in LSU history.

Defensive line

2007: Glenn Dorsey returned as arguably the best defensive player in America and was one of three returning starters in a 4-3 front, along with Charles Alexander and Tyson Jackson. It was evident that the Tigers would be hard to block.

2011: Sam Montgomery returned at end along with Kendrick Adams, but the Tigers were looking for new starters at defensive tackle. Eventually, Barkevious Mingo would replace Adams as the starting defensive tackle.

2016: All four starters return, include sack leader Lewis Neal (below), emerging star Arden Key (who will play a hybrid DE/OLB position) and solid tackles Davon Godchaux (now a 3-4 nosetackle) and Christian LaCouture.

Credit: Crystal LoGiudice-USA TODAY Sports

Comparison: While this year’s team does return a lot, it doesn’t return a player the caliber of Dorsey.

Linebacker

2007: A solid group returned, including Ali Highsmith, Darry Beckwith and Luke Sanders. LSU had to feel confident the group would get the job done.

2011: OLBs Stefoin Francois and Ryan Baker were back, but the Tigers had a gaping hole in the middle where they lost Kelvin Sheppard. New starter Kevin Minter had shown some promise, and eventually delivered on that promise.

2016: Darry Beckwith’s cousin, Kendell Beckwith, anchors an otherwise unproven group and will be surrounded by veterans with little starting experience (like Duke Riley and Donnie Alexander). The Tigers lost tackles leader Deion Jones to the NFL.

Secondary

2007: LSU lost one of the best safeties ever to play for the Tigers in LaRon Landry. The Tigers did return both starters at cornerback in Chevis Jackson and Jonathan Zenon.

2011: By this year, the “DBU” title had taken shape and, despite the loss of Patrick Peterson, LSU appeared loaded with Morris Claiborne and Tyrann Mathieu back at cornerback along with Brandon Taylor at safety.

2016: The “DBU” shine seems to have worn off coming off a year in which LSU struggled to cover the pass, but there is still high-end talent back with cornerbacks Tre’Davious White and Kevin Tolliver and one of the best safeties in college football, Jamal Adams (below, right).

Credit: Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports

Comparison: This year’s group has talent, but it wasn’t very strong as a group last year, putting it a clear step behind where the secondary felt it was coming into the 2011 and 2007 seasons.

Overall

There’s but one position where LSU is clearly better now than it was in the 2007 and 2011 seasons, and that’s at running back. At other spots, LSU has the potential to be much improved, like wide receiver and the secondary.

But overall, expectations may be tempered by intangibles. Has beating Alabama become a mental hurdle too big to overcome? That certainly was not an issue in 2007 or 2011. Has the passing offense become a mental issue too big to overcome? That certainly was not the case in 2007, when LSU had just made a quarterback a No. 1 overall NFL Draft pick and had plenty of confidence in his replacement.

Still, it’s close. Neither of those teams had a talent like Fournette and this team has so much leadership. Maybe, based on that, the outlook should be as good as it was entering the previous two years LSU made runs to national title games.