Zero.

Oh, my bad. I assumed that you asked me a question that seems pretty relevant these days.

How many Playoff victories do the Big Ten and Pac-12 have the past 5 years?

Zero.

That’s right. The Big Ten and Pac-12 have as many Playoff victories in the past 5 years as the Group of 5.

Zero. Zip. Nada.

That’s not to say that the conferences have been totally irrelevant nationally. I filled out my Top 25 in the first week of August and 7 of my top 15 teams were from the Big Ten or the Pac-12. True story. I had 5 Big Ten teams in the top 15 before all the opt-outs started happening. Obviously taking those teams out of the preseason Top 25 will certainly shake up the 2020 Playoff picture.

But can the 3 remaining Power 5 conferences truly have a national championship? I say yes, even if it does catch some heat.

Why? Well for starters, the College Football Playoff is still planning on hosting a Playoff. Who will be competing for a spot? Well, present will be the only 2 conferences that won a Playoff game in the past 5 years. You know, the ACC and SEC.

Let that sink in for a second.

There were a total of 15 Playoff games the past 5 years, and the ACC or SEC won all of them. Those conferences are still planning on playing football in 2020.

Did Ohio State get extremely close last year against Clemson? Sure. But even if you include that thriller, the Big Ten and Pac-12 went 0-4 with an average margin of defeat of 23 points from 2015-19. Again, to say that things haven’t gone well for the Big Ten and Pac-12 since Ohio State and Oregon battled for the 2014 crown would be an understatement.

And let’s be honest. In a year in which there already wasn’t going to be nonconference games involving Power 5 teams, the plan was still to have a Playoff. Plus, this was already going to be a year in which conference reputation dictated a lot. It’s inevitable. Both the Big Ten and Pac-12 have built a reputation of not producing on the big stage since that first Playoff. That’s reality.

Reality is 11 programs have combined to fill the 24 Playoff spots, and 7 of those are scheduled to play football in 2020. That group consists of Alabama (5 Playoff appearances), Clemson (5), Oklahoma (4), Florida State (1), Georgia (1), LSU (1) and Notre Dame (1). Six of those 7 teams will likely start off in the top 10 nationally. That would’ve been true without the cancelations, by the way. Whoever wins a national title won’t necessarily be getting off easy.

That’s the other thing to remember. Even if the Big 12 and ACC don’t produce as many Playoff-contending teams as the SEC, they’ll still need to win 2 games against some sort of combination of Clemson/SEC contender. If we get a full season, it’s still a year in which the national title winner will likely face a 12-13 Power 5 teams (remember the Big 12 only has 9 conference games). Here’s the breakdown of Power 5 teams faced per Playoff champion:

  • 2014 Ohio State: 12
  • 2015 Alabama: 12
  • 2016 Clemson: 13
  • 2017 Alabama: 11
  • 2018 Clemson: 13
  • 2019 LSU: 12

So yes, there’s a decent chance that as long as there aren’t any cancelations (that’s not a given), the national champion will tie the Playoff era record with 13 Power 5 opponents faced. That still seems like a worthy title winner to me.

And if you’re saying that it’s more of a regional champion, we’re also talking about a sport that has a 4-team field to determine its winner …with 5 power conferences. Actually, 2015 Alabama, 2016 Clemson and 2019 LSU all won titles despite playing only 3 of the Power 5 conferences in those respective seasons. In fact, 2017 Alabama and 2018 Clemson only faced 2 of the Power 5 conferences.

Why are we pretending like facing every Power 5 conference is a prerequisite to win a title? It’s not.

Should it be? In my opinion, yes. But in the current system, which has crowned 6 undisputed national champions in the Playoff era (sorry UCF), the sport is already set up to be super regional.

It’s a bummer that if a fall 2020 season happens in its entirety, it won’t include the Big Ten or Pac-12. I feel for programs like Ohio State, Penn State and Oregon that had a legitimate shot to make the Playoff and compete for a title. There will always be that “what if” for them, regardless of what happens with the other 3 Power 5 conferences. Those windows are smaller than we realize in real-time.

But I’m going to do something that I don’t often do. That is, use a topical Dabo Swinney quote to explain my argument (via ESPN):

“Whoever wins it, wins it. That’s the champ. It’s the same way in every sport. … Somebody is gonna win a championship, so maybe it’s a shortened season, maybe it’s not as many teams or whatever. But you best believe whoever wins it is gonna have to earn it. Nobody’s gonna give nothing to nobody, so you can only control what you control. We just hope we can have the opportunity to play.”

Dare I say, the guy’s got a point. There won’t be an asterisk on a 2020 title. We don’t know that a program like Ohio State or Oregon would have even been a pebble on Clemson’s road to a national championship. The last thing I’d expect Clemson or any national championship winner is to add an asterisk and be like “yeah, we got off easy because we didn’t have to play Ohio State or Oregon.”

Nope. Clemson’s focus is the ACC. LSU’s focus is the SEC. Oklahoma’s focus is the Big 12 (because there’s plenty of time to figure out new ways to lose in the Playoff semifinal).

It’d be different if we were talking about 1 or 2 Power 5 teams squaring off with the majority of the Power 5 gone. That’s perhaps why the Big 12’s decision to continue a season felt so significant. Without that, who knows what the ACC or SEC would have done in the days that followed.

As of this writing, though, there are enough Power 5 conferences to compete for a national title. And if we can get there, what a fantastic occasion that’ll be.