Little did Josh Heupel know that when he walked off the field on Saturday against Alabama, he moved into the leader for the SEC Coach of the Year honor.

If that happens, Heupel will collect a cool $50,000, per the terms of his new contract. Beyond that, it’ll be a sign that he put together a darn impressive season and that he has Tennessee at a place that few thought he could get it to in Year 2. The last SEC coach to take home that honor in Year 2 or earlier was Kirby Smart in 2017. He, of course, led the Dawgs to an SEC title and a national runner-up season.

Heupel might not have to lead Tennessee to a conference title to win the award, but history suggests that’s a pretty major caveat. Five of the past 6 winners either won the SEC or they put together a 12-0 regular season (Kirby Smart won the award last year even though he suffered his first loss in the SEC Championship).

While most Coach of the Year honors are about which coach rises above expectations in the most significant way, the SEC typically rewards greatness. The past 3 winners all took home national titles. In 9 of the past 13 years, SEC Coach of the Year went to someone who ultimately led their program to a national championship berth (the coaches’ vote and the AP vote was split in 2010, 2012 and 2014). Those non-national championship coaches were:

  • 2010 — Steve Spurrier, South Carolina (Coaches)
  • 2012 — Kevin Sumlin, Texas A&M (AP and co-Coaches)
    • Will Muschamp, Florida (co-Coaches)
  • 2014 — Gary Pinkel, Mizzou (Coaches)
    • Dan Mullen, MSU (AP)
  • 2015 — Jim McElwain, Florida (AP and Coaches)
  • 2018 — Mark Stoops, Kentucky (AP and Coaches)

Heupel could absolutely join that group. If you’re asking yourself “why couldn’t Heupel win a national championship,” I’m not ruling it out, but I am, however, saying that a Tennessee program that just beat a top-5 team for the first time in 17 years is still going to have an uphill battle to do that.

But we all know that Heupel has the best argument right now because even if Tennessee loses to Georgia and doesn’t get to Atlanta, nobody thought we’d see the Vols beat Alabama en route to an 11-1 regular season. Of course, 11-1 isn’t a given, and neither is Heupel winning SEC Coach of the Year just because he beat Alabama.

That’s why there are 3 other candidates who could have a case to win SEC Coach of the Year.

So what would it take for Josh Heupel not to win the award?

It’s hard to imagine Heupel not winning the award if he leads Tennessee to an 11-1 season. There are very few scenarios in which he wouldn’t be the obvious choice with a regular season unlike anything Tennessee has had since 2001.

Where it gets murky is if Heupel loses multiple regular season games. It’s not that 10-2 would be considered a disappointment, but if the Vols stumble with a loss to Georgia and perhaps a loss to Kentucky or South Carolina, that’s when perhaps we’d see others join the mix.

With that in mind, here are the 3 candidates who could have a path if that situation were to present itself.

The 3 others who have a shot

Lane Kiffin, Ole Miss

Last I checked, Lane Kiffin was undefeated. We’ll check again after the LSU game, but Kiffin quietly has Ole Miss off to its best start in 50 years. That’s a year removed from leading the program to its best regular season win total ever. An 11-1 Ole Miss team isn’t that far-fetched. Of course, if the side-by-side of Kiffin vs. Heupel includes one 11-1 coach with an Alabama win compared to another 11-1 coach without an Alabama win, we know how that plays out.

But let’s consider how remarkable it is that this is Kiffin’s response to being ranked No. 98 in the country in percentage of returning production with 30 new scholarship players. He also lost both of his coordinators, yet Ole Miss has its highest AP Poll ranking since 2015 with a legitimate shot at another New Year’s 6 bowl. That’s remarkable. If Kiffin somehow led Ole Miss to an improbable West title and the program’s first SEC Championship berth ever, he’d absolutely have a case to steal the award from Heupel.

Kirby Smart, Georgia

Smart is in a weird spot because there’s a chance his team could roll Tennessee, win the East and he could still not beat Heupel for SEC Coach of the Year. Is that fair? Maybe it is, maybe it isn’t.

But remember the timing of the award. It’s handed out after the SEC Championship. If Smart runs the table and beats Alabama in an SEC Championship to knock the overwhelming preseason No. 1 team out of the Playoff race, that’d be tough not to give the award to Smart, especially coming off a title season in which he had 15 guys selected in last April’s NFL Draft. Saban took home SEC Coach of the Year honors in 2016 when his team responded to winning the national title by going 13-0 with an SEC Championship. Smart would probably need to beat Tennessee and Alabama to become the first repeat SEC Coach of the Year winner since Saban in 2009, but it’s certainly a possibility.

Brian Kelly, LSU

Yes, I know. Kelly got smoked by Heupel in Death Valley. There’s a chance his path is blocked because of that alone. I hear that.

Want me to let you in on a little secret, though? LSU still controls its SEC fate, and we’re in late October. Yes, the Tigers have 2 losses and they’re still unranked, but consider what’s on the table if Kelly leads LSU to a win against No. 7 Ole Miss.

  • Bye
  • vs. No. 6 Alabama
  • at Arkansas
  • vs. UAB
  • at Texas A&M

Do I think LSU is about to finish the regular season on a 6-game winning streak to win the West and play for an SEC title? No, but I’m intrigued by the passing game revival we saw at Florida. As Kelly said afterward, LSU is a different team if Kayshon Boutte plays at that level. Obviously, the Alabama game is the most daunting matchup on that schedule, but we just saw the Tide go on the road and struggle to slow down a team with deep, talented receivers and a dynamic quarterback. It’s not a lock that LSU, which played Alabama down to the wire during a lost season last year, will roll over against the Tide in Death Valley.

Considering how bad the season started for Kelly with the Florida State debacle, it’s wild to think that he’s an Ole Miss win away from suddenly having an intriguing path to cause some chaos down the stretch. And if we somehow got a Tennessee-LSU rematch in the SEC Championship, well, you know what’s up for grabs.

Why not Nick Saban?

It’s pretty simple. Saban doesn’t win the award when he loses a regular-season game. He won SEC Coach of the Year in 2008, 2009, 2016 and 2020, which were all years in which Alabama had a perfect regular season. In 3 of those 4 instances, the Tide won the SEC Championship with the lone non-SEC Championship being 2008, which was Year 2 of the Saban era. It’s hard to rise above expectations when you’re often the preseason No. 1, which Alabama was for the 7th time in the Saban era. That margin for error is slim to none. The only way Saban could somehow win the honor would be if Bryce Young got hurt again and Jalen Milroe led the Tide to an SEC title, and I’m not even sure that would do the trick.

Saban’s SEC Coach of the Year drought — his last win came all the way back in 2020 — will likely continue another year.