The NCAA Tournament (the real bracket, not the First Four) is set to begin Thursday, with first-round matchups continuing Friday.

There are seven SEC teams in the tourney, and there are some very intriguing matchups for fans to watch. As is always the case, there will be some buzzer beaters, some close games and some blowouts.

Which SEC games are the most watchable? And which have the highest chances of an upset?

Here are the games you should dedicate your time to this week:

1. No. 5 Auburn vs. No. 12 New Mexico State

The Tigers are one of the hottest teams in the country, but these neutral-site games are always tricky for teams that rely so heavily on 3-point shots. Yes, the Tigers fared well in Nashville last week, but Salt Lake City could be different.

That’s a tough trip for the Tigers, especially since the Aggies have a much shorter trip. Also, New Mexico State hasn’t lost since Jan. 3. They’ve won 30 games this year, which is impressive no matter what conference you play in.

Still, it would be unwise to bet against the Tigers at this point. There’s a higher chance of an upset in this game than in some others later on in this article, but I think the Tigers will advance to the second round in a close one.

Chance of an upset: 35%

2. No. 10 Florida vs. No. 7 Nevada

This game is going to come down to who controls the tempo. The Gators can’t survive a shootout with the Wolf Pack, but Nevada also can’t compete with Florida in a slow, grind-it-out style game.

Add in the Gators’ experience in close games, and the Wolf Pack had better hope for a high-scoring affair. However, the Gators have also been maddeningly inconsistent this season, so it’s tough to say which team will show up in Des Moines on Thursday.

Chance of an upset: 40%

3. No. 8 Ole Miss vs. No. 9 Oklahoma

These 8-9 matchups are always coin flips, and this one is no different. Yes, the Rebels could have trouble with Oklahoma G Christian James, but they also have a deep backcourt.

I like the Breein Tyree, Terence Davis, Devontae Shuler trio for the Rebels, so I’ll give them a slight edge in what should be an exciting first-round game.

Chance of an upset: 45%

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4. No. 5 Mississippi State vs. No. 12 Liberty

Many people will pick the Flames in this one just because it’s one of those dreaded 5-12 matchups. Most years, a No. 12 seed or two will advance, but it’s always tricky to choose which upsets will actually hit.

If I were a gambling man (and I am), I would ride with Mississippi State. The Bulldogs have too much depth and too many players who can score in bunches along with the Flames for this to be a game that worries me too much. Add in coach Ben Howland’s tourney experience and I think you should look elsewhere for the 5-12 upset.

Here’s a fun note — Liberty lost to Alabama and, yes, Vanderbilt this season, so the Flames haven’t fared so well against SEC competition. Expect that to continue this week.

Chance of an upset: 25%

5. No. 3 LSU vs. No. 14 Yale

I don’t like to pile on the Tigers, but this tournament run will likely be a short one for them without head coach Will Wade. However, I think they’ll get at least one win before things get tough.

Yes, they could absolutely lose to a Yale team that scores an impressive 81.1 points per game, but the Tigers have more athleticism than the Bulldogs are used to facing. Maryland, Belmont or Temple will be a bigger challenge in Round 2.

Chance of an upset: 38%

6. No. 2 Kentucky vs. No. 15 Abilene Christian

Kentucky enters this game as the biggest favorite of any SEC team, with the opening line starting at -21.5. Abilene Christian (also nicknamed the Wildcats) had a great season, but there’s a big gap between the Southland Conference and the SEC.

This Kentucky team looks poised for a deep tournament run, and should at the very least come close to covering that big spread.

Chance of an upset: 2%

7. No. 2 Tennessee vs. No. 15 Colgate

The Vols need a bounce-back game in the worst way, and they’ll get one against the Raiders. Colgate hasn’t lost since Feb. 4, but it also hasn’t played a team like Tennessee.

Tennessee was embarrassed against Auburn in the SEC Tournament final and will be eager to get that bad taste out of its mouth. Don’t expect the Raiders to provide much of a challenge, but things will get tougher when the Vols potentially have to face Cincinnati in Columbus on Sunday.

Chance of an upset: 2%