O’Gara: SEC Early Signing Period storylines that even the casual fan should know

Unlike the 12-team Playoff, you should no longer expect chaos when it comes to the Early Signing Period, which begins today (Wednesday).

That’s right. It’s here. Earlier than ever.

Why? Well, the 12-team Playoff changed the college football calendar. Fortunately for so many of these programs and the transactional nature of these commitments, last-minute legwork isn’t what it once was.

As of Tuesday morning, 90 of the top 100 recruits in the 247sports composite rankings are committed. Take that for what it is.

Also, take the Early Signing Period for what it is. In many ways, it’s simply a 1-year contract. Hence, why some of the luster is gone. Last year, I found that 29 of the top 100 recruits in 2022 had already transferred or entered the portal at least once. At this time last year, the top 100 recruits in 2021 (that’s 2 years removed from their Early Signing Period) had 40 of those recruits transfer or hit the portal at least once.

Specific to the SEC and its blue-chip recruits (that’s 4- or 5-star recruits) from the 2021 and 2022 classes, I found that 48% of them had already transferred at least once. Eight of the 14 SEC schools had lost at least half of their 2021-22 blue-chip recruits within 2 years of them signing.

An elite recruiting class doesn’t save a coach on the hot seat. If you don’t believe that, go ask Jimbo Fisher and his historic 2022 class about that. Of those 24 blue-chip recruits, 11 are at other schools now. Granted, some of that was the result of Fisher getting fired at the end of the 2023 season. That’s sort of the point, though. Even a historically talented class could be on a limited timetable in this era of the sport. Keep that in mind.

Also, keep these SEC storylines in mind as the Early Signing Period begins on Wednesday:

Bryce Underwood’s last-minute flip from LSU to Michigan is the biggest storyline of this cycle

You know. In case you haven’t heard.

The No. 1 recruit in the 2025 class had been committed to LSU since Jan. 6, 2024, but he flipped to Michigan 2 weeks ago amid reports that the Wolverines reportedly upped the NIL offer into the 8-figure range. LSU, which has added no shortage of high-profile transfers across all sports in the NIL era, couldn’t match Michigan. That’s significant.

It was a massive, massive blow for Brian Kelly to lose a guy that the fanbase hoped would be the next LSU Heisman Trophy winner. Including the 3-game losing streak that took LSU completely out of the Playoff hunt, it was part of a month-long stretch that Kelly would probably like to forget.

LSU can probably afford to miss out on a quarterback recruit even if Nussmeier doesn’t return (more on that in a bit), but losing Underwood could be a monumental moment in the Kelly era. The quarterback pipeline certainly looks different than what Kelly originally thought it would be.

The better question to ask with Hugh Freeze’s Early Signing Period haul

I applaud Auburn coach Hugh Freeze for recruiting at an elite level and closing in on a top-5 class by landing 7 top-100 recruits. Even better for Freeze, he got commitments from 8 of the top 10 recruits in the state of Alabama. That’s a year removed from signing the No. 8 class in his first full cycle, which featured plenty of instant impact players like Cam Coleman, Malcolm Simmons and Demarcus Riddick.

That’s really the bigger question for Freeze’s class — how many of these 2025 recruits will he feel comfortable playing significant rules next season? Because whether he acknowledges it or not, Freeze will enter the season on every hot-seat list in America. That’s what happens when you go 5-7 in Year 2 with a 2-6 mark in SEC play. The irony is that this year, Auburn was already a lot more freshmen-reliant than it probably wanted to be.

Perhaps that sets up well for Freeze’s progression in Year 3, but because of his play-calling/quarterback decisions/late-game management, he’s not going to have the luxury of preaching patience. Coaches on the hot seat can’t afford to have true freshmen get early reps and take their lumps. Freeze had the luxury of doing that this year. Next year, that won’t be the case at all.

Whether that sits well with all of Freeze’s blue-chip recruits in the 2025 class remains to be seen.

Kalen DeBoer sure doesn’t recruit like an outsider

I was told that Alabama coach Kalen DeBoer wasn’t going to be able to recruit in the South, and that an outsider like him was going to be content with just signing top-10 classes. Wrong. Very wrong.

Heading into Wednesday, Alabama ranks No. 2 in the class rankings and No. 3 in average recruit rankings. The only team with more 5-star commitments than Alabama (4) is Georgia (5). That includes DeBoer’s first big QB recruit, Keelon Russell, who rose all the way to No. 2 in the entire class behind Underwood. In DeBoer’s first full cycle, he landed 9 commitments from top-100 recruits. Just for a little perspective, Nick Saban’s 2020 class featured 9 top-100 recruits … most notably 2 guys named “Bryce Young” and “Will Anderson.” You might’ve heard of them.

Depending on how things shake out with Texas, Alabama could hold onto a top-3 spot, just as it did all but once from 2011-23 under Saban. Sure, it would’ve been nice if Alabama could’ve avoided 5-star receiver Caleb Cunningham flipping to Ole Miss. That dropped the Tide off the No. 1 spot. And if the predicted Ty Haywood flip to Michigan happens, that’ll also slightly ding this class to lose out on another 5-star.

But to land a decorated, national class in his first full cycle — he got 7 commitments from California and matched Alabama’s total from The Golden State from 2018-24 — suggests that the talent isn’t about to drop off in Tuscaloosa.

Florida’s late push showed how important this stretch was for Billy Napier’s future

What if I told you that playing better football, getting a vote of confidence for the head coach and seeing a full dose of arguably the most exciting young quarterback in America would result in a massive late surge on the recruiting trail? Would you be surprised? Florida fans are more delighted than surprised to see the wave of commitments over the course of the last couple weeks.

Since Nov. 17, here are all the commitments that Florida landed:

• 3-star OL Daniel Pierre Louis
• 3-star OL Jahari Medlock
• 3-star WR Muizz Tounkara
• 3-star DL Stephon Shivers
• 3-star RB Byron Louis
• 3-star QB Tramell Jones Jr.
• 4-star DL Joseph Mbatchou
• 4-star LB Ty Jackson
• 4-star OL Tavaris Dice
• 4-star S Hylton Stubbs
• 4-star Edge Jayden Woods

And for what it’s worth, Stubbs flipped from Miami to Florida on Monday while Mbatchou was originally a Florida commit who then committed to Texas before going back to the Gators 8 days later.

As it stands, that’s 11 commitments in the past 3 weeks following the vote of confidence that Napier got that he’ll be back in 2025. Do those commitments mean that Napier will be able to keep his job beyond 2025? Not necessarily. It’s significant because it shows that there’s optimism that Napier can have a long-term future in Gainesville. Winning 3 consecutive games to close the regular season might’ve impacted that vibe.

What’s clear is that for the first time in a long time, Florida might finally have some momentum.

A Wednesday decision that could impact the SEC race in 2024? Michael Terry III

Terry is deciding between Nebraska and Texas on Wednesday at 9:15 a.m. ET, meaning that by the time you’re reading this, you might already know whether the versatile 5-star is coming to the SEC or B1G. If he is, get ready for him to become a household name from the jump.

Texas might not end up having the turnover at receiver and running back that it had last year, but Terry’s skill set would be a matchup nightmare in a Steve Sarkisian offense. The San Antonio (Texas) Alamo Heights star is 6-3, 217 pounds, and he can line up anywhere. He entered his senior season with more than 3,100 scrimmage yards (1,800 rushing and 1,300 receiving) and could become a go-to weapon for Arch Manning (or Nebraska’s Dylan Raiola).

Perhaps it bodes well for Terry that 5-star true freshman Ryan Wingo became an instant impact player in Texas’ offense. Wingo was 1 of 4 Texas receivers who all got a starter’s share of snaps in the second half of the season. All of them have played both inside and outside, with even a handful of snaps in the backfield. Plus, the reliance of running backs Jaydon Blue and Tre Wisner in the passing game — both averaged 3 catches per game in the regular season — suggests that Terry could find an immediate home exploiting matchups in Sarkisian’s scheme.

No QB in this signing class? Expect portal additions

Connect some dots here. Every one of the top 40 quarterback recruits in the country is committed somewhere. Of the 16 SEC teams, only 3 don’t have a quarterback committed yet. That’s Oklahoma, Ole Miss and obviously, LSU after it lost the aforementioned Underwood. I’d expect all 3 teams to add quarterbacks in the portal, albeit for different reasons.

Ole Miss has its quarterback of the future in Austin Simmons, who is set to take over for the NFL-bound Jaxson Dart. The Walker Howard experiment hasn’t gone according to plan, so hold tight on what the former LSU transfer’s future in Oxford looks like. Simmons will enter his 3rd year on campus, but he’ll have 3 years of eligibility remaining. That seems like a team who’ll likely want to add a veteran signal-caller in the portal.

That might be a different story from LSU, depending on the future of Garrett Nussmeier. If Nussmeier returns for another year, the Tigers could look closer at a younger former blue-chip recruit, especially after class of 2023 QB Rickie Collins entered the portal. If Nussmeier leaves for the NFL, all signs point to LSU spending big to poach an established quarterback in the portal. It remains to be seen what that timeline will look like.

Oklahoma could also be in the market for its 2025 QB1. That can now become a primary focus for Brent Venables, who hired Washington State’s Ben Arbuckle as his next offensive coordinator. Will the 29-year-old Arbuckle, who coached Cam Ward in 2023, bring over 2024 starter John Mateer after he was No. 9 in FBS in quarterback rating? It’s possible that Mateer or another big-time quarterback addition is coming, though it depends on whether Oklahoma is willing to lose underclassmen Jackson Arnold and Michael Hawkins Jr. to the portal.

That’s not to say that those will be the only SEC teams who recruit a portal quarterback. Auburn and Mizzou could be big players in the portal market, and Kentucky might like true freshman Cutter Boley, but Mark Stoops has gone into each of the last 8 seasons with a former transfer as his QB1.

In other words, it could be an active portal window for the SEC at the game’s most important position.

Connor O'Gara

Connor O'Gara is the senior national columnist for Saturday Down South. He's a member of the Football Writers Association of America. After spending his entire life living in B1G country, he moved to the South in 2015.