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If you were underwhelmed, you might be a hater.
I’m not saying you can’t hate South Carolina or LSU. You’re entitled to hate whomever you please.
If you can’t appreciate the fact that College GameDay is returning to Columbia for the first time in a decade, you might be a hater of this great sport. As Shane Beamer said, that atmosphere will be off the charts come Saturday at “high noon.” There’s no doubt about that.
It’s a unique matchup for teams that only met once in the post-Steve Spurrier era (his last game was actually a loss to LSU in 2015). History might be minimal, but the stakes are high.
For South Carolina, it’s a chance to start 3-0 and 2-0 in SEC play. Doing so likely would vault the Gamecocks back into the AP Top 25. In the 112 games since South Carolina last hosted GameDay, 109 of those were played as an unranked team … and all 3 of those games as a ranked team were losses.
For LSU, it’s a chance to avoid a 1-2 start in Year 3 of the Brian Kelly era. Any shot of LSU being in the 12-team Playoff conversation starts with a road win in a hostile atmosphere. A victory against the emerging Gamecocks could allow Kelly and the Tigers to move past a disastrous ending to the season-opener. To Kelly’s credit, he won 10 games in each of his first 2 seasons even after losing season-openers.
So who takes care of business in Week 3? And why?
Let’s dig into the matchup with some final thoughts (and a prediction):
1. Let’s talk about that suddenly incredible strength-on-strength matchup
I say “suddenly” because I’ll be honest. When I broke down both of these teams’ schedules with our preseason Crystal Ball series, I didn’t anticipate South Carolina’s pass rush potentially being the single-biggest test for LSU’s first-round offensive tackle prospects. Will Campbell and Emery Jones Jr. have all eyes on them in their effort to protect Garrett Nussmeier, who’ll try to avoid being swallowed whole by South Carolina’s new-look group of pass-rushers, true freshman star Dylan Stewart and Georgia Tech transfer Kyle Kennard.
It’ll get the full pregame breakdown by the GameDay crew, and with good reason. Campbell and Jones are elite tackles who have been starting since they were true freshmen while Stewart and Kennard have formed a tag-team duo that’s worth the price of admission.
Stewart and Kennard are ranked No. 1 and No. 10, respectively, in PFF pass-rush grade among edge-rushers. Say what you will about those grades, but what’s clear from watching that duo is they’ve been highly successful in winning 1-on-1s.
Or in the case of Stewart, he’s already shown he can win 3-on-1s.
Folks….this is a TRUE freshman!! pic.twitter.com/Sk6pbkYhpG
— Cole Cubelic (@colecubelic) September 8, 2024
Goodness. There’ll be no surprise if Stewart and Kennard make their presence felt. At the same time, this is a money game for Campbell and Jones. Unlike last year when they had Jayden Daniels at quarterback with plenty of ability to escape pressure, Nussmeier isn’t nearly as mobile.
What will LSU do to combat that? Kelly’s lead running backs (Kaleb Jackson and Josh Williams) only combined for 8 snaps in pass protection through 2 games. Part of that was the fact that the LSU tackles held up well in pass protection against USC and that was never going to be an issue against Nicholls. More likely would be LSU using tight end Mason Taylor in pass protection, where he’s been more effective than as a run-blocker.
Either way, a fascinating chess match awaits.
2. Will the LSU ground game please stand up?
We knew that when Daniels left for the NFL, LSU was going to see a shift in its ground game. That shift meant greater reliance on a more traditional ground game, which in theory, should’ve benefited an offensive line that’s got 4 guys who have been 3-year starters.
But so far, no good.
The Tigers are No. 116 in FBS in rushing yards/game and they rank No. 89 in yards/carry. They’re one of 10 FBS teams without a rushing score this season and their lone run of 20 yards came against USC from former 5-star John Emery Jr., who then suffered a torn ACL following the Week 1 loss. A big reason LSU couldn’t put that game away was because it gained just 3 yards on 6 carries in the 4th quarter. That won’t cut it Saturday.
Related: Looking to place a bet on the 2024 Heisman Trophy winner? SDS has you covered with all the latest odds!
Josh Williams and Kaleb Jackson will be a massive part of LSU’s path to success on Saturday and throughout SEC play. The best way to slow down a pass rush like South Carolina’s is to run the football successfully. You could argue that Jackson deserves more run after seeing the field on just 17 run-play snaps in LSU’s first 2 games. He has 13 carries for 42 yards without a trip to the end zone yet.
Call me crazy, but that has to change on Saturday.
3. Now would be as good a time as ever for a Nyck Harbor breakout game
Through 2 games, here’s Harbor’s 2024 stat line:
- 0 scrimmage touches for 0 yards
- 1 defensive pass-interference penalty drawn
- 1 start
- 2 tackles
- 18 routes run
- 37 offensive snaps played (36 wide, 1 slot)
To say that’s disappointing would be an understatement. The 2-time winner of Bruce Feldman’s No. 1 freak in college football has been a non-factor. Harbor entered his sophomore season in hopes of living up to that freakish ability, which is still on the table. After all, he missed spring while starring for the South Carolina track team. For someone still learning the position and how to get separation without just straight-line speed, Harbor has a lot more to digest.
At the same time, Harbor is the only guy on that offense that defenses could fear. That’s if the Gamecocks figure out how to effectively get him touches. For now, that’s a big “if.”
Saturday would be an ideal time to test an LSU secondary that entered 2024 with questions galore. Even if Harbor’s speed is just a decoy to open up things in the underneath passing game, one would think his expanded usage will become a high priority for OC Dowell Loggains.
I suppose it’s possible (though maybe not likely) that South Carolina didn’t want to put any unique looks for Harbor on tape ahead of LSU and we’ll see the Gamecocks get more creative with their freakish weapon against LSU. Here’s hoping.
4. The key thing we saw from LaNorris Sellers against Kentucky
It’s been a slow start for the South Carolina quarterback in his first season as QB1. He had 10 completions and 4 sacks taken in each of his first 2 starts. There’s plenty of room to improve.
But against Kentucky, we saw improvement in the form of Sellers recognizing and capitalizing on coverage busts. Mazeo Bennett got South Carolina on the board when the Kentucky defensive back stayed with the inside receiver, which left him all alone with a massive throwing window for Sellers as he rolled back to his left. On his other touchdown pass to Joshua Simon, Sellers again took advantage of some DB eyes in the backfield on the fake pitch to Rocket Sanders. That set up a big throwing window that made for an easy pitch-and-catch.
That’s Loggains and Sellers finding things that work. As in, the foundation needed for every coordinator-quarterback relationship. Doing that on the road against a team with defensive experience like Kentucky bodes well.
We know that “disciplined” hasn’t been a word to describe recent LSU defenses. But Blake Baker set out to change that after coming over from Mizzou. That was mostly good against USC, but we still saw some issues late when Miller Moss took over and led USC’s comeback.
This will be a great test for both Sellers in finding those spots and for the progression of the scrutinized LSU pass defense.
5. Is Harold Perkins changing positions?
Stop me if you’ve heard this before, but LSU is still finding out the best way to maximize Perkins. Kelly hinted at a possible position switch for the All-SEC linebacker.
Brian Kelly on Harold Perkins:
“We have to get guys in the right place and the right time.”“Are we better suited in nickel personnel or three linebacker sets? It’s a continuous search to get him into a position where he can impact our defense the most.”
— TigerDroppings (@TigerDroppings) September 9, 2024
“It’s a continuous search” is not an ideal thing to say about a guy who’s now in Year 3 as a starter.
That could mean shifting to the “Star” role instead of lining up Perkins like a traditional inside linebacker. So far, Perkins’ defensive output in Baker’s scheme has been relatively quiet. He had a 0.5 TFL on third down to force a key early punt against USC, but since then, Perkins has neither a sack, nor a TFL and his PFF run defense grade (62.6) ranks just No. 26 among SEC linebackers.
Perhaps of equal frustration is that on the season, only 15 of Perkins’ 102 snaps played saw him rush the passer. That’s an even smaller pass-rush percentage (14.7%) than last year, when he did so on 21% of his defensive snaps. Yes, Perkins got up to 225 pounds to be better suited to handle run-game duties at the inside linebacker spot, but the hope was that he’d still get more opportunities to harass quarterbacks.
What’ll be the plan for Perkins on Saturday? That remains to be seen. Whatever it is needs to yield some splash plays, or Baker and Kelly will hear it from the LSU faithful.
And a prediction … LSU 28, South Carolina 17
A South Carolina victory wouldn’t surprise me in the slightest. Many of seemingly immortal big-time programs have walked into Williams-Brice, only to leave as … you get it. That heat will be cranked up in every which way. Sandstorm will be ringing in LSU’s head the entire way back to Baton Rouge.
But dare I say, LSU will get out of Columbia with a much-needed win. LSU has the best chance out of perhaps anyone in the country to neutralize South Carolina’s biggest strength. That’s not to say that Campbell, Jones and that LSU offensive line will bat 1.000. It doesn’t need to. It just needs to prevent that group from taking over.
LSU offensive coordinator Joe Sloan will have a plan in place for that. Quick-hitting routes to the outside will be the goal. Screens. Tempo. Inside runs. Those should all be on the table for LSU, which hasn’t necessarily had a ton of success generating chunk plays from those high-percentage looks. But against a South Carolina pass-rush that’ll fly off the ball, my guess is we see the Tigers find those running lanes between the tackles.
By day’s end, we’ll be reminded that not all first-year starters are the same. Nussmeier will prove to be the more poised quarterback while Sellers will struggle in obvious passing situations late.
South Carolina comes out firing, but LSU settles in and pulls away late to calm the (sand)storm.
Connor O'Gara is the senior national columnist for Saturday Down South. He's a member of the Football Writers Association of America. After spending his entire life living in B1G country, he moved to the South in 2015.
