Tonight is when the fun really starts.

We’re going to get all worked up about rankings that won’t matter for another month, and are basically feeding into our desire for college football roundtable discussions 24/7.

How will the top 10 of the first poll look? Here’s what I think the selection committee puts together (that’s not necessarily what it should look like):

  1. Georgia
  2. Alabama
  3. Notre Dame
  4. Ohio State
  5. Clemson
  6. Wisconsin
  7. Penn State
  8. Oklahoma
  9. Miami
  10. TCU

I think the selection committee will come up with a top four that ultimately is there to drive conversation, much like it did when Texas A&M earned a top-4 spot in last year’s first poll.

Will the final poll look like that? Absolutely not. Let’s not forget that only five of the 12 teams who earned spots in the first Playoff poll top 4 actually earned a bid. We still have a month of football, plus conference championships to determine these things.

So instead of breaking down why each team deserves each spot, let’s go in a different direction. I ranked the 10 clearest paths to a Playoff spot as we enter November. That factors in everything. Are you undefeated? Do you have one loss? Do you have a bunch of challenging games ahead? Do you control your destiny to a Playoff spot?

All of those elements were considered. The more paths for a team, the better.

Here are the 10 clearest paths to a Playoff berth:

10. Penn State

I actually think that Washington has a much clearer path to a conference title, but I question if that’ll even be enough to impress the committee more than 1-loss Penn State. I went in depth about the Lions’ Playoff outlook after the Ohio State loss, and believe me, it’s not pretty.

Credit: Joe Maiorana-USA TODAY Sports

But picture this scenario. Penn State wins out in convincing fashion. Ohio State wins out or loses once more in the regular season. Why can’t the Lions benefit from not playing in a conference title game just like the Buckeyes did last year? The selection committee already showed a conference title isn’t a prerequisite to make the field. That — plus a two-loss Notre Dame team and a couple of two-loss conference champs — is Penn State’s path.

9. Miami

Undefeated teams should have a nice edge as it relates to “paths.” They could still have a loss to give. Miami will likely be on the outside of the top four looking in Tuesday night, but it still has two home games against Virginia Tech and Notre Dame. The opportunity for quality wins is there.

So what’s the problem with Miami’s path? If the Canes lose to Virginia Tech, their odds to make the ACC Championship take a big hit. Lose to Notre Dame and suddenly a 1-loss Irish team has a pretty important tiebreaker. And even if the Canes survive those two games, the reigning national champs could await in the ACC Championship Game. Miami can win out and make the field, but that looks like its only option after four straight one-possession wins vs. unranked ACC teams.

8. TCU

What’s the good news for TCU after that devastating loss to Iowa State? It only has one game left against a team with a winning record. The bad news is that game is at Oklahoma. If the Horned Frogs can’t pull out an extremely difficult win on the road, they won’t even make it to the Big 12 title game. And if they do win in Norman, a Big 12 champion will await.

Credit: Joey Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

The Horned Frogs would be among the more interesting 1-loss debates because they would have knocked off Oklahoma and Oklahoma State on the road. They certainly have less major hurdles left than teams higher on this list, but all roads lead through Norman. That’s daunting.

7. Ohio State

Wait a minute. I thought the Buckeyes had the clearest path left? Not so fast. Though they got over a huge hurdle on Saturday against Penn State, Ohio State doesn’t have everything working in its favor. Keep in mind that OSU doesn’t have the head-to-head advantage against Oklahoma. A 1-loss Oklahoma team should have the edge over a 1-loss OSU team, or else non-conference games should be considered exhibition games.

And just in case you forgot, OSU still has some challenges left on the schedule without any mulligans. The Buckeyes will travel to face an Iowa team that’s never been afraid of the big boys at home. They also still have to beat a Michigan State squad that’s had plenty of success against them in the Mark Dantonio era. And in case you forgot, they go to Ann Arbor to close the regular season. If those three things happen, they’d still possibly have to take down Wisconsin on a neutral site. There’s certainly a path, but it ain’t as clear as many believe right now.

6. Oklahoma

Remember when everyone laughed at Oklahoma for losing to Iowa State at home? Well, that doesn’t look like such a laughing matter anymore. I feel like people wrote off the Sooners, despite the fact that they’re a 1-loss team with arguably the most impressive non-conference win of anyone. Oklahoma should have a tiebreaker against a 1-loss Ohio State team it beat by 15 in Columbus.

The schedule is still difficult, though. The Sooners can’t afford a misstep this weekend at Bedlam, nor can they falter at home vs. TCU and at home vs. West Virginia in the season finale. Oh, and they need to win a Big 12 title game. Those are four potential grenades that can blow up the Sooners’ Playoff push. But at the same time, a 1-loss Oklahoma team would certainly be battle-tested and worthy of a Playoff spot.

5. Clemson

Like any 1-loss team, Clemson is in win-or-go-home mode every week. If the Tigers fall at N.C. State this weekend, none of this matters.

Credit: Joshua S. Kelly-USA TODAY Sports

But if Clemson does pull out a win on the road, 2-win Florida State, South Carolina and an unproven Coastal division winner await. The Tigers will be favored in all of their remaining matchups, and with the amount of quality wins they racked up in September alone, nobody will doubt their credentials with a conference title.

4. Notre Dame

One-loss Notre Dame isn’t getting left out of the field. Period. With the amount of top-25 wins it can potentially rack up by season’s end, the Irish could have a Playoff spot locked up before the conference title games kick off. One-loss Notre Dame would actually be more likely to make the field than 1-loss Alabama without an SEC title. The Irish aren’t higher on this list because a loss ends the Playoff push, but winning only four more games is a favorable path at this point.

3. Wisconsin

Again, we’re talking about paths, not strength of teams. The unbeaten Badgers don’t have a top-25 team remaining on their schedule, but don’t get caught up in the strength of schedule so far. Wisconsin has the clearest path to 12-0 of any team remaining. If it does lose to Michigan and still knocks off Ohio State in a B1G Championship, a one-loss Wisconsin team is most likely in the field.

And no, the committee wouldn’t leave out an undefeated Wisconsin team. Stop it, Rece Davis.

2. Georgia

I know. Georgia has to face Alabama. That’s supposed to be a death sentence. There’s still a possibility that a 12-0 Georgia team loses by one score to undefeated Alabama in the title game. The Dawgs could easily still get in with that scenario.

They could also get in by losing to Auburn and beating Alabama in the SEC title game. Not too many teams have losses to give, but Georgia could theoretically lose one of its two big games left and still earn a bid. Crazy. Even crazier is the realistic possibility that Georgia’s résumé is better than undefeated Alabama’s.

1. Alabama

Alabama has two things that I like entering the first Playoff poll. The Tide haven’t lost yet, and it could even pull off what Ohio State did last year. If Alabama loses to Auburn and fails to even win its own division, it could still wind up with a Playoff berth. “Could” is the key word. Alabama could also run the table against four SEC teams it hasn’t lost to since the Kick-6.

There’s also the possibility that 12-0 Alabama loses to undefeated Georgia in a thriller SEC Championship. That’d be an awfully tough team to keep out of the Playoff picture. Whatever the case, the Tide still have the most possibilities that involve a path back to a final four spot.