Each week, we’ll take a look at the credible and not-so-credible threats to the SEC’s playoff aspirations, based on the now-retired Homeland Security Advisory System. (Here’s a longer explanation.)

College football hit pause on the chaos that consumed the season until Week 9, as Ole Miss was the only Top 25 team to suffer an upset. (Even No. 19 Utah, a 24-21 winner at home, ranked ahead of No. 20 USC.)

Perhaps the sport knows another critical week is forthcoming. Florida State plays what’s likely to be its toughest game before a potential national semifinal, at Louisville on Thursday night. The Cardinals have one of the nation’s best defenses statistically, and those weekday games have proven difficult for road teams.

Oregon must try to erase years of bad memories against a faltering Stanford team, or else the 2014 version of the Pac-12 will fall into serious trouble. It’s also a huge weekend for the South Division, pitting now-No. 18 Utah at No. 15 Arizona State and No. 14 Arizona at No. 25 UCLA.

The winner of Saturday’s TCU-West Virginia tilt, to be played after GameDay broadcasts live from Morgantown, W.Va., becomes the Big 12 co-favorite, with Kansas State (4-0 in conference play) scheduled to face each of them in successive weeks.

The playoff picture is a mess, and we’ve reached the point where attrition crystalizes rather than clouds the final four.

RELATED: Herbstreit replaces Ole Miss with another SEC team in top four

Scanning The Good Guys: The Ole Miss loss hurt the conference overall in its quest to claim two playoff spots.

It turned this week’s Auburn-Ole Miss game into an elimination game. If the Rebels win, Auburn-Georgia just about becomes another elimination game, as a two-loss Bulldogs team would enter the SEC championship as an underdog and may have a tough argument as a two-loss conference title winner from the lesser division (with a loss to one of the SEC West powers on its resume).

At this point, if you’re rooting for the SEC to have as many teams in the hunt as possible, you want Auburn to flame out, because otherwise the Tigers can knock out Ole Miss, Georgia and Alabama. It seems less and less likely that the SEC’s final regular-season weekend will feature four one-loss teams.

Mississippi State continues to play like the game in Tuscaloosa in a few weeks is the only thing between the Bulldogs and entering the Egg Bowl unbeaten, while Alabama is playing well, but the Tide’s closing schedule also is brutal.

We always knew conference play would lead to attrition. The only question is, how much?

Now for the terrorists.

THREAT LEVEL: SEVERE

Severe risk of terrorist attacks.

Florida State: This week may be the final chance for SEC villains Jameis Winston and the Seminoles to falter. The Nov. 15 game at Miami is somewhat intriguing, considering Duke Johnson broke his ankle against the Seminoles last year. Johnson is as dangerous as any player in the country right now, getting stronger the more he distances himself from that injury. He has 1,260 yards of total offense in eight games. Virginia, Boston College and Florida aren’t guaranteed wins, but FSU will enter all three games as comfortable favorites. Then a rematch with Duke or some other inferior Coastal Division team awaits in the ACC championship. This team is playing better as the season progresses and still hasn’t lost with Winston at quarterback.

Oregon: The offensive line got healthy after a loss to Arizona. Since then the team has scored 42, 45 and 59 points. Marcus Mariota threw his first interception of the season Saturday, a reminder of how well he protects the football. Meanwhile, freshman RB Royce Freeman has emerged as the next Ducks superstar. He’s rushed for 13 touchdowns on the season and has strung together three consecutive 100-yard rushing games. The bottom line: this offense has found the extra gear it lacked earlier in the season, and should be able to outscore anyone in its way of a College Football Playoff bid.

Michigan State: The Spartans clobbered Michigan, 35-11, on Saturday in a game that wasn’t that close. On Sunday, barely-employed Wolverines coach Brady Hoke issued an uncomfortable apology on behalf of his team as a motivational tactic got out of hand, leading a Michigan player to drive a stake into the Michigan State field prior to the game. The Spartans are the Big Ten bullies now, not Ohio State and not “big brother” Michigan. The team gets a chance to prove it Nov. 8 after a bye week.

THREAT LEVEL: HIGH

High risk of terrorist attacks.

Notre Dame: A schedule that once looked overwhelming now seems tame, as wins against teams like Michigan, Stanford and North Carolina aren’t that impressive and a road game against USC doesn’t have as much clout now that the Trojans have collected three losses. Beat Arizona State on the road Nov. 8, and the Irish have an opportunity to finish the season with a lone loss — on the road, courtesy of a controversial call, to what could be the only undefeated team in any of the power conferences.

Ohio State: It looked like a confetti blimp exploded above the field at Penn State on Saturday night. But hobbled freshman QB J.T. Barrett, coach Urban Meyer and the Buckeyes sent a message to James Franklin in double overtime: you may represent our toughest competition in the next two or three years, but for now, even on the road and in double overtime, we’ll out-execute you because we have better players. The Big Ten dodged a major bullet, potentially more damaging than the early-season fiasco. It needs the Buckeyes to prop up Michigan State’s resume by ensuring the game in two weeks gets national attention.

Big 12 champion: It’s the most unpredictable conference in college football this season, even ahead of the SEC. Kansas State (4-0), West Virginia (4-1), TCU (3-1) and Baylor (3-1) all remain viable, while even Oklahoma (2-2) has a chance. (The Sooners get Baylor at home with a great shot to close the season with five consecutive wins.) The Wildcats and Horned Frogs have the best chance to make a case for playoff inclusion by winning out and taking down the Big 12 title. A one-loss champion in what many regard as the second-best conference in college football in 2014 would be tough to exclude from the four-team field.

THREAT LEVEL: ELEVATED

Significant risk of terrorist attacks.

Pac-12 South champion: This division is more convoluted than the SEC West or ACC Coastal. Everyone discounted Utah prior to the season, and even entering Saturday. But now the Utes clearly are in the fray, along with a pair of Arizona programs and UCLA. The winner likely will end the regular season with two losses and a chance to challenge Oregon in the conference title game. It will take some lucky results, but if things break right in other conferences, a two-loss Pac-12 champion from the South Division could claw into the final playoff spot.

Nebraska: The Cornhuskers look poised to ride Ameer Abdullah and a feisty defense to the Big Ten championship game at 11-1. Barring an upset in the Big Ten West against a trio of two-loss teams to close the season, Nebraska could have a chance to avenge a respectable loss to Michigan State and back into a playoff spot to the surprise of everyone but @FauxPelini.

THREAT LEVEL: GUARDED

General risk of terrorist attacks.

East Carolina: Boy, would it have been fun to debate the Pirates if the team had beaten South Carolina earlier this season. (Side note: the Gamecocks would look pretty strong right now if they’d found a way to beat Auburn, which would’ve given them three wins against Top 25 teams.) East Carolina and Marshall are competing right now to be the FBS small-conference representative in the VIP area come bowl season. If both teams keep winning, the Pirates benefit from a regular-season finale on national TV on Dec. 4 that could determine the American Athletic Conference. If both teams are 7-0 in AAC play, even an unbeaten Marshall will have a tough time arguing past ECU.

Marshall: The Thundering Herd scheduled Miami (Ohio), Rhode Island, Akron and Ohio as its non-conference opponents. For context, that’s a 2-7 MAC team, an FCS team, a 4-4 MAC team and a 4-5 MAC team. Congratulations are in order for an 8-0 record that should become 12-0. But the AAC is stronger than C-USA, and East Carolina dared to play South Carolina, Virginia Tech and North Carolina in non-conference games.

THREAT LEVEL: LOW

Low risk of terrorist attacks.

SMU: The Mustangs, lovable losers, are the only FBS team without a win in 2014. In fact, out of 128 FBS teams, only six have fewer than two wins. Two of the five one-loss teams, Tulsa and Connecticut, will get a shot at SMU later this season. So not only does SMU rank last in points per game (7.0) and points allowed per game (48.0), but the team can partner with another bottom-feeder to nearly singlehandedly could be responsible for every other FBS team getting multiple wins.

Troy: Here’s “another bottom feeder,” in case you were wondering. Three of the five one-win teams hail from the Sun Belt Conference, and Troy plays both Georgia State and Idaho in November. SMU coach June Jones ran away from the team after two games, while long-time Troy coach Larry Blakeney will retire at the end of the season. Playing fifth fiddle in Alabama behind UAB and South Alabama isn’t very attractive, though, especially when this program used to rank a strong third in-state. Meanwhile, SMU floated a $4 million per year “offer” toward Mack Brown.

Wake Forest: It appears the Demon Deacons are sprinting toward an 0-8 season in the ACC, with a road game against North Carolina State (4-4, 0-4) representing the team’s only hope. This team runs for just 34.5 yards per game, which could get overlooked if Conner Halliday played quarterback for Wake Forest and attempted 75 passes per game. But the offense is balanced. This team has run the ball 248 times compared to 255 pass attempts — for a grand total of 276 rushing yards. Leading rusher Orville Reynolds managed a 36-yard run, but remove that and he has 58 carries for 107 yards and zero touchdowns.

UTSA: The Roadrunners fooled us all early in the season, clobbering small-conference dark horse Houston, 27-7, to open the season, followed by a 26-23 loss to now-No. 14 Arizona. Texas-San Antonio is 1-5 since, a three-point home win against Florida International hardly enough to offset Saturday’s 34-0 home drubbing against UTEP in a battle of lettered Texas schools in C-USA. The Roadrunners made two first downs all game. QB Austin Robinson’s 10-yard scramble on second-and-14, the offense’s longest gain of the game, set up one of the team’s 11 punts.