What you’re about to read is a prediction. It is not what I think the first Playoff rankings should be; it’s what I think they will be.

That’s based on what we’ve heard in the past from the selection committee and the way that certain wins and conferences are valued more than others. Getting inside the mind of the selection committee isn’t something I recommend. They often talk in circles, so this is just an educated guess.

Why is it educated, you ask? Well, I chart 3 metrics every week to try and not lock myself into opinions and just ride them out for the next month.

For all the Power 5 teams with 1 or fewer losses, I track:

  • Wins vs. current AP Top 25 teams
  • Wins vs. Power 5 teams with winning records
  • Average scoring differential vs. Power 5 teams

More often than not, I feel like those 3 things serve as a compass to keep me on the right track. Easier said than done? Absolutely.

But here’s how I think the top 10 will look when the first College Football Playoff rankings are announced on at 7 pm Tuesday night on ESPN:

10. USC

USC’s biggest knock as a 1-loss team will be the lack of quality wins. Oregon State is currently the Trojans’ lone victory against a Power 5 team with a winning record, and the Beavers aren’t a lock to make the first Playoff poll (they’re in the AP Top 25 but not the Coaches’). A mediocre-at-best defense was always going to be the issue, but Lincoln Riley’s squad at least is still a contender with the lone blemish being the nail-biter loss to Utah.

9. Ole Miss

Why are we skeptical of Ole Miss? Besides the inconsistent quarterback play and defense, Lane Kiffin’s team doesn’t have a win against a current AP Top 25 team and the lone win against a Power 5 team with a winning record was a thriller against Kentucky. The LSU blowout loss poured cold water on the hot take that Ole Miss was ready to compete for an SEC title. But the Playoff selection committee leaving a 1-loss SEC team outside of the top 10 feels unlikely, even if it’s a team with an extremely backloaded schedule.

8. Oregon

There’s a ceiling. Contrary to what Bo Nix said, no, I don’t believe Oregon could flip a 46-point result if it played Georgia tomorrow. Having said that, the Ducks deserve tons of credit for turning around their season. Against a Pac-12 with 5 teams in the AP Top 25, Oregon’s average scoring differential is +16.2. The problem is that Oregon’s lone quality win so far is UCLA. There’s also no world in which a 1-loss Oregon would be more worthy of a 1-loss Georgia. Still, to be sitting here at the first Playoff ranking with an obvious top-10 spot is a testament to Dan Lanning in Year 1.

7. TCU

This is where we hit the “I don’t think they should be ranked here” portion of the argument. But I have a weird feeling that TCU is about to be punished for the rest of the Big 12 having multiple losses. Why am I prepared to be mad for Sonny Dykes’ squad? Among the 13 Power 5 teams with 0 or 1 loss, TCU is:

  • T-No. 1 in wins vs. Power 5 teams with winning records (4)
  • T-No. 2 in wins vs. current AP Top 25 teams (3)
  • T-7 in averaging scoring margin vs. Power 5 (+14.3)

But preseason bias will impact this. TCU wasn’t even ranked in the AP Poll until the second weekend of October. Instead of praising the quality wins against the likes of Oklahoma State and Kansas State, we’ll hear the selection committee knock an unbeaten team for having a lackluster defense. If this is actually based on résumé, TCU deserves to be ahead of Alabama and Michigan. But as we know, it always feels like there’s more to it than that.

6. Alabama

Yes, Alabama has the best loss of the contenders. No, that doesn’t matter as much as you think it does. But the Tide will be in this spot in part because, well, when you play in 6 of the past 7 national title games, yeah, you’re going to be the top-ranked 1-loss team. But it does have the 3 wins against Power 5 teams with winning records, which trails only Clemson and TCU (among Playoff contenders). And despite some of those close calls, the Tide still rank No. 4 among contenders with a +16.8 average scoring margin against Power 5 competition. The defending national runner-ups and preseason No. 1 will undoubtedly get a top-6 spot to start.

5. Michigan

Like I said, TCU has a better résumé than Michigan. I’ll be interested to see how the selection committee handles that joke of a nonconference schedule because I do think that’ll keep the Wolverines out of the first top 4. But the selection committee’s “eye test” factor will be on the Wolverines’ side because of the Penn State blowout. We’ll hear about the offensive improvement with JJ McCarthy, despite the fact that Michigan has 1 game against a top-30 scoring defense, and it was a day in which Iowa held him to 6.5 yards per pass attempt. But I digress. The Wolverines do rank No. 3 among the contenders in average scoring margin against Power 5 competition (+17.4), which is what you’d hope to see from a team with 2 games against Power 5 teams with winning records.

4. Clemson

I can make any argument imaginable to justify or not justify Clemson being at that No. 4 spot in the first ranking. Want me to try?

OK, let’s start with the negatives:

  • The most impressive win is … at Wake Forest in 2OT?
  • The QB is … DJ Uiagalelei?
  • 4 of the past 5 wins were decided by 10 points or less

The “best win” knock is a fair one. I’d argue that Tennessee, Georgia, Ohio State, Michigan, TCU and Oregon all have a more impressive win than Clemson. If you want to make that case that we shouldn’t see Dabo Swinney’s squad in the first top 4, you can.

You can also, however, make the case that Clemson is undoubtedly a top-4 team based on the positives:

  • No. 1 among contenders with 3 wins vs. current AP Top 25 teams
  • T-No. 1 among contenders with 4 wins vs. Power 5 teams with winning records
  • No. 6 among contenders in average scoring margin vs. Power 5 teams (+14.5)

The positives fall apart in a hurry if Wake Forest, NC State and Syracuse all fall out of the Top 25, which seems likely considering they currently hold the No. 20-22 spots in the AP Poll. But for now, I expect that to work in Clemson’s favor en route to a No. 4 ranking.

3. Georgia

Yes, I expect UGA fans to be upset Tuesday night. I’m anticipating the selection committee pointing to how long ago it was that Georgia beat Oregon instead of referencing how impressive of a beatdown it was. That would be a frustrating development for Georgia, who could theoretically be 11-1 without a conference championship to play for. UGA has 2 wins against Power 5 teams with winning records (that’s No. 5 among contenders and tied with Ohio State), but it also ranks No. 1 in America with a +33.3 average scoring margin against Power 5 competition.

Would I put Georgia ahead of Ohio State? Absolutely. Do I think the selection committee will? Doubtful.

2. Tennessee

Tennessee would be my No. 1. Why? Well, it’s not about the fact that they beat 5 teams that were ranked in the AP Top 25 at the time of the matchup. Current context is needed. Like, the Vols have 2 wins vs. current AP top-15 teams, 1 of which was against Nick Saban and the other was a 27-point drubbing in one of the most intimidating road venues in the sport. For my money, that’s as good of an argument as any team can have to be the first Playoff No. 1 of 2022.

Do I expect the selection committee to outline actual reasons the Vols don’t have the No. 1 spot? No. I expect the talking heads to try and argue that Tennessee “doesn’t have a complete team” even though the Vols are No. 26 in America in scoring defense because they rank No. 9 nationally against the run and they’re No. 51 in yards/pass attempt allowed. But yes, I expect the selection committee to only put Tennessee at No. 1 if it goes on the road and beats Georgia.

1. Ohio State

Look. The Buckeyes were my preseason national championship pick because I thought we’d see significant improvement defensively. So far, so good. Combine that with the fact that Ohio State as the No. 2 scoring offense essentially without Jaxon Smith-Njigba and yeah, you could totally envision the selection committee referencing that Ryan Day has a “complete” team after outscoring Power 5 opponents by an average of 27.8 points per game (only UGA is better).

My problem with ranking Ohio State at No. 1 is I think Tennessee has 2 wins better than what the Buckeyes did at Penn State. I also was more impressed by Georgia’s season-opening beatdown of Oregon than Ohio State rallying back against an Outback Bowl-bound Penn State squad. The Buckeyes have 2 wins against Power 5 teams with winning records, and 1 of them was a rather lackluster showing against a disappointing Notre Dame squad. If this were truly about résumé, the Buckeyes would be at No. 3. Instead, though, I expect the selection committee to reward the defensive improvement and the offensive output without Smith-Njigba.