Predicting order of finish in SEC's East, West at season's midpoint

Back in the preseason, just like most everyone at SEC Media Days, I picked Tennessee and Alabama to win the East and West, respectively.

Now halfway through the schedule, those predictions are holding up quite nicely. Even after back-to-back defeats, the Volunteers are in prime position for the stretch run. The Crimson Tide, of course, are as dominant as ever.

Likewise, I’ve done pretty well calling out the cellar dwellers. I forecasted trouble for South Carolina in the East and Mississippi State in the West. While the Gamecocks are technically ahead of Missouri, they’re the only team with four conference losses. The Bulldogs are the lone four-loss program in their division.

My prognostications have been far from perfect, though. In the East, Florida is better than I thought. Georgia is worse. In the West, Arkansas and Auburn have both exceeded my expectations. Ole Miss hasn’t.

With the ability to hit the reset button after six or seven games, here is how I see the final league standings shaking out.

sec east

1. Tennessee

The Volunteers pulled a rabbit out of their hat twice in SEC play, once at home vs. Florida and then on the road at Georgia, but they ran out of magic the next week at Texas A&M. Predictably, they were subsequently bludgeoned by Alabama.

That being said, the Vols should be able to run the table with only South Carolina, Kentucky, Missouri and Vanderbilt remaining on the conference schedule. If they do so, they’ll go to Atlanta for the first time since 2007.

2. Florida

Currently atop the division, the Gators still need to finish ahead of Tennessee by at least one game due to that head-to-head loss in Knoxville. Georgia is next after a bye, and UF usually finds a way to take the Cocktail Party.

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However, there are a pair of tricky road trips looming. At Arkansas will be tougher than expected when the season started, plus their home date with LSU is now being played in Baton Rouge. I see at least one loss, perhaps two.

3. Georgia

The Bulldogs have an extra week to recover from an embarrassing loss to Vanderbilt in Athens, which should never happen. While Kirby Smart knows the Florida-Georgia rivalry well as a player, this will be his first time coaching in it.

Even if things don’t go well in Jacksonville, UGA finishes the conference slate with Kentucky on the road and Auburn at home. Presumably, the Dawgs will be favored in both. A lot can happen between now and then, though.

4. Missouri

Still winless in league play at 0-3, the Tigers should have a couple of triumphs in the near future. They’ll have to be a lot better than they were in their past two outings, a pair of blowout losses at LSU and Florida.

Mizzou gets Kentucky, South Carolina and Vanderbilt consecutively, two at home, so a clean-sweep 3-0 is possible. That being said, coach Barry Odom and Co. finish with two toughies in Tennessee and Arkansas.

5. Kentucky

The Wildcats are 2-2 in conference, taking care of business against South Carolina and Vanderbilt. But vs. Florida and Alabama, the two defending division champions, they didn’t have what it took to compete.

I’d say three of UK’s final four SEC games are winnable with Mississippi State and Georgia at home and Missouri on the road. Winnable doesn’t mean the ‘Cats will win, though. There are still a lot of holes on this roster.

6. South Carolina

First-year coach Will Muschamp deserves a lot of credit for turning what was an atrocious defense the past few seasons into a pretty respectable unit. The offense, however, is reminiscent of his worst times with the Gators.

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After a season-opening victory at Vanderbilt, the Gamecocks have lost four SEC games in a row. With Tennessee, Missouri and still Florida remaining, I’m expecting 1-4 to eventually turn into 1-7.

7. Vanderbilt

The Commodores finally won a conference road game for coach Derek Mason, his first in three seasons. Vandy sometimes sets offensive football back half a century, but the ‘Dores play inspired defense more often than not.

Their four league games left on the schedule are trips to Auburn and Missouri before getting to host Ole Miss and Tennessee. It’s difficult to find a victory. Due to that loss to South Carolina, Vanderbilt finishes last in the East.

sec west

1. Alabama

Undefeated and, for the most part, unchallenged through seven games, this might be the best Crimson Tide ballclub yet under coach Nick Saban. From offense to defense to special teams, they can beat you in so many ways.

The SEC’s game of the year is Saturday in Tuscaloosa, as similarly unbeaten Texas A&M comes to town. But oddsmakers aren’t impressed, as the Aggies are 19-point underdogs. A perfect 8-0 mark in conference for the Tide is in play.

2. Texas A&M

The arrival of quarterback Trevor Knight has completely changed the personality of this team, and not just on offense. Suddenly, the Aggies run the ball better and even stop the run more effectively than in years past.

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A&M has already defeated Arkansas and Tennessee, which is impressive. But even after the Alabama matchup, Ole Miss and LSU are still scheduled to visit College Station. At least one league loss is imminent, probably two.

3. Arkansas

A pleasant surprise, the three-headed monster of Brandon Allen at quarterback, Alex Collins at running back and Hunter Henry at tight end has been capably replaced by Austin Allen, Rawleigh Williams III and Jeremy Sprinkle, respectively.

The Razorbacks are only 1-2 in SEC play, but those two losses were to Texas A&M and Alabama. Their one victory came over a dangerous Ole Miss club, too. Even with Auburn, Florida and LSU left, they can win two of those three.

4. LSU

Goodbye, Les Miles. Hello, Ed Orgeron. A change at head coach seems to have given the Tigers a second opportunity to start their season. Losses to Wisconsin and Auburn early have been erased by beatdowns of Missouri and Southern Miss.

The aftermath of Hurricane Matthew means the Bayou Bengals get Florida at home now, so scratch that trip to Gainesville. There are no gimmes left, though. Ole Miss, Alabama, Arkansas and Texas A&M all remain for 2016.

5. Ole Miss

Unable to finish games this season, the Rebels held post-halftime leads against Florida State, Alabama and Arkansas but managed to lose all three. With two conference defeats already, dreams of Atlanta have been dashed.

While the Rebs wrap up the slate with a couple of presumed doormats in Vanderbilt and Mississippi State, the road beforehand won’t be easy to navigate. LSU, Auburn and Texas A&M are on the schedule, with two away from Oxford.

6. Auburn

Coach Gus Malzahn made a fool of himself in the opener with his QB hook-a-thon against Clemson. Since then, he’s settled on Sean White and gotten much better results. The Tigers have already bagged a victory over LSU.

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Nevertheless, Auburn still has three league road games left at Ole Miss, Georgia and Alabama. Only Arkansas and Vanderbilt come to The Plains. Even after a 2-1 start in SEC play, a 1-4 finish isn’t out of the question.

7. Mississippi State

The Bulldogs have gotten progressively worse facing competition from the best conference in America. They started with a 27-14 win over South Carolina, but then there was a 23-20 loss to LSU and a 38-14 whipping from Auburn.

MSU travels to Kentucky and Alabama, then will play the Egg Bowl at Ole Miss. Texas A&M and Arkansas make the trip to Starkville and will be heavy favorites to prevail. At best, there are two league victories left, maybe none.

John Crist is the senior writer for Saturday Down South, a member of the FWAA and a voter for the Heisman Trophy. Send him an e-mail, like him on Facebook or follow him on Twitter.