From 2009 through 2016, the SEC Championship was won by a trio of teams from the SEC West (Alabama, Auburn and LSU). Add in that Arkansas, Mississippi State and Ole Miss also made it to BCS bowls during this time frame (as well as Johnny Manziel’s Heisman Trophy season at Texas A&M) and the gap between the SEC’s two divisions felt wider than ever. Sure, Florida, Georgia, Missouri and South Carolina all had impressive seasons here and there during those eight years, but the SEC West was clearly the more dominant division.

Perhaps the SEC West’s reign of conference dominance died with the Georgia Dome. In the first SEC Championship Game played in Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Georgia knocked off Auburn, ending the SEC East’s title drought. Not only did Georgia win the conference title, but Kirby Smart’s squad nearly achieved what has been viewed as the impossible in the SEC East: beating Alabama.

The Bulldogs have made it clear that they can hang with the SEC West’s best. But what about the other teams in the SEC East?

With one set cross-division permanent rival and another rotating opponent, the SEC schedule features 14 regular-season games between the two divisions. The East went 3-11 against the West last year in the regular season. Let’s take a look at how we think 2018 will play out.

OVER BEFORE KICKOFF

Oct. 6: Kentucky at Texas A&M: There’s a reason Jimbo Fisher is making $7.5 million per year and his former defensive coordinator, Mark Stoops, is not. Stoops’ Troops might surprise a few teams in the SEC this season, but they’re not upsetting the Fisher-coached Aggies at Kyle Field.

Oct. 13: Missouri at Alabama: Since 2008, Alabama has lost a total of four home games (zero to SEC East teams). Missouri doesn’t have what it takes to pull off the virtually impossible.

Oct. 13: Tennessee at Auburn: Congrats on becoming a head coach, Jeremy Pruitt. Enjoy facing the defending SEC West champs on the road. He knows all too well what that was like as Bama’s defensive coordinator last year.

Oct. 20: Alabama at Tennessee: At Alabama, Nick Saban has never lost to Tennessee or one of his former assistants. This game won’t change either streak.

That’s already 0-4 for the SEC East. But the other 10 games should actually be decided on the field. Let’s give them a look.

ADVANTAGE SEC EAST (ESPN FPI)

ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) is one of the more cited sources of preseason power rankings. The FPI is defined by ESPN as “a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team’s performance going forward for the rest of the season” based on the results of 10,000 simulations.

Based on FPI, the SEC East team will be favored in five of its meetings against SEC West teams.

Oct. 6: No. 21 Florida vs. No. 25 FPI LSU 
Oct. 13: No. 3 Georgia at No. 25 LSU
Nov. 3: No. 28 South Carolina at No. 44 Ole Miss
Nov. 10: No. 3 Georgia vs. No. 7 Auburn
Nov. 23: No. 29 Missouri vs. No. 50 Arkansas

ADVANTAGE SEC WEST (FPI)

Sept. 22: No. 15 Mississippi State at No. 60 Kentucky
Sept. 29: No. 15 Mississippi State vs. No. 21 Florida
Oct. 13: No. 19 Texas A&M at No. 28 South Carolina
Oct. 27: No. 50 Arkansas vs. No. 76 Vanderbilt
Nov. 17: No. 44 Ole Miss at No. 76 Vanderbilt

PREDICTION: 4-10

Things aren’t looking good for the SEC East this year. As identified above, there are already four obvious wins to circle for the SEC West. The same cannot be said for the SEC East.

In the other 10 games, FPI favors each division five times. It’s difficult, however, to be confident in the SEC East those five times. Georgia-Auburn is likely to be a slugfest. LSU has won four of the past five against Florida, showing the Tigers aren’t afraid of playing in The Swamp. Arkansas is an unknown in Year 1 under Chad Morris and might surprise Mizzou. And South Carolina traveling to Oxford in November just feels like a potential upset in the making.

On the flip side, Florida coach Dan Mullen showed he knows something about beating his former team when MSU traveled to Gainesville and knocked off UF in 2010. Will Muschamp’s defense and a hostile Williams-Brice Stadium crowd could give the Aggies offense fits. If the Hogs struggle in a transition year, Vanderbilt might steal one.

FPI says the SEC East should go 5-9. I see the chance for four upsets favoring the West and three upsets favoring the East. It’s looking like a 4-10 season for the SEC East.