For some positions, a player’s stats are (seemingly) predictable. Based on the previous season’s stats, one can often project at least a ballpark figure – no pun intended – for what to expect in the fall. With a player or team’s rushing yards, receiving yards or passing yards, projections are made in factors of 12, based on the length of the regular season.

Sack statistics are a little bit different. In 2017, for example, the SEC’s sack leaders tied for first in the conference with 10.5, fewer than a sack per game. Checking in at 4.5 sacks — 6 sacks fewer than the co-leaders — five players were in a tie for No. 25.

In other words, every half sack is a big deal in the conference rankings.

So who will lead the race to the quarterback in 2018? Let’s take a look.

Flukes or Freaks?

While all the preseason buzz surrounded LSU’s Arden Key, five under-the-radar players surprised everyone to lead the conference in sacks last season. Leading the way were Mississippi State defensive lineman Montez Sweat and Texas A&M defensive lineman Landis Durham with 10.5 sacks each. In 2016, Sweat was playing in junior college and Durham was a reserve lineman. Anyone who saw a 10.5-sack season coming for either lineman should probably be playing the lottery or hitting the books in Las Vegas. Key, meanwhile, finished No. 30 with 4 sacks due to only playing in eight games.

The rest of the conference’s top five sack leaders for 2017 went as such: Auburn’s Jeff Holland (No. 3, 10 sacks), Vanderbilt’s Charles Wright (No. 4, 9.0 sacks) and Alabama’s Raekwon Davis (No. 5, 8.5 sacks). Of the top five, all will return in 2018 except Holland, who declared for the NFL Draft.

It is this fall that the four will prove if they are freaks or just flukes. The truly elite pass-rushers show up in the top spots more than one year. Former Texas A&M defensive end Myles Garrett finished in the top 10 in sacks among SEC pass-rushers all three years of his career. Former SEC greats Derek Barnett (Tennessee), Jonathan Allen (Alabama) and Tim Williams (Alabama) finished in the top five back-to-back seasons.

Sweat, Durham, Wright and Davis were able to fly under the radar in 2017, but they certainly have the attention of offensive coordinators heading into 2018.

Stepping up

The individual competition for sack leader doesn’t necessarily start and finish with the four returning leaders from 2017. A newcomer or former reserve will almost certainly have a breakout season and take the conference by storm. These talented veteran players are also among the names to watch for 2018:

Missouri DL Terry Beckner Jr. – Beckner and teammate Marcell Frazier tied for No. 8 in the conference last season with 7 sacks. Frazier is off to the NFL, but Beckner is back in CoMo. If Beckner can stay healthy, 2018 could be a special season for him. With Frazier gone, someone at DLU has to pick up the slack.

Mississippi State DL Jeffery Simmons – Not to take away from Sweat’s phenomenal season, but offenses’ biggest concern on MSU’s defensive line is the former 5-star talent Simmons. As a sophomore, Simmons recorded 5 sacks in 2017. We’ll see which lineman leads the pass rush under new defensive coordinator Bob Shoop.

Florida DL Cece Jefferson – Another former 5-star talent, Jefferson has flashed potential throughout his three-year career. Last season, he finished tied for No. 25 in the SEC with 4.5 sacks in 11 games. New defensive coordinator Todd Grantham brings a more aggressive scheme to Gainesville, which could help Jefferson have the season Gators fans have been anticipating since he showed up on campus in 2015.