A nerd's look at predicting the SEC, Part IV: Fumble recovery rate

College football is predictable in certain situations.

If Alabama quarterback Blake Sims threw a looping pass to an uncovered Amari Cooper 40 yards downfield last season, the receiver probably was going to catch it.

But take that same prolate spheroid with the pointy ends, bounce it off the ground at various angles and velocities, and it’s nearly impossible to predict which of the 22 players on the field will grab it first.

Part I: Close games
Part II: Point differential
Part III: Turnover margin

Some of the athletes trying to secure the ball weigh more than 300 pounds and are sprinting the opposite direction. Many players trying to scoop up fumbles aren’t quarterbacks or running backs used to possessing the ball.

Statistics back that amateur blend of physics and logic. In football, the fumble recovery rate gets closer and closer to 50 percent the more data one examines.

There are some great individual fumble recoveries, often on strip-sacks. Players can become skilled at ripping out or protecting the football. But recovering fumbles, in aggregate, is not a skill that a team can develop.

In other words, welcome back a nerd’s best friend, “reverting to the mean.” (For a longer explanation on the term, go here.)

Teams with fumble recovery rates that exceed or fall short of that 50 percent baseline in a given year are very likely to experience a correction the next season. With that in mind, let’s look at the SEC teams that experienced tons of luck, or no luck at all, during the 2014 season.

Auburn represented the biggest outlier in the SEC last season, and that’s great news for Tigers fans.

The team experienced 40 total fumbles in ’14, either by the Auburn offense or the opponent’s offense. That number was close to mid-pack in the conference. But coach Gus Malzahn’s players only recovered 10 of those 40, a remarkable string of bad luck.

Auburn lost two fumbles in Texas A&M territory late in the fourth quarter of a 41-38 loss to the Aggies. Then again, the Tigers did recover a late fumble by Ole Miss receiver Laquon Treadwell at the goal-line to preserve a 35-31 win.

Based on historical numbers, with average luck, Auburn should’ve recovered 20 fumbles instead of 10. That’s an extra 10 possessions for the Tigers offense, which averaged 2.45 points per possession (ppp) in ’14.

Of course, 10 x 2.45 = 24.5 points. Considering ppp does not include extra-point attempts, poor luck probably cost Auburn (8-5) about four touchdowns last season. That’s not an insignificant margin considering Malzahn’s team lost games by 3, 3 and 11 points.

The next-most extreme recovery rates belonged to LSU (lucky) and Alabama (unlucky), so those two teams should see a bit of a reversal this fall.

Here’s a look at the fumble recovery rates of every SEC team in 2014. Most of the teams recovered close to 50 percent of the fumbles and can’t be predicted to experience a huge swing of luck this year.

2014 FUMBLE RECOVERY RATES