Final SEC Bowl projections: 1 Playoff team or 2?

Much noise has been made in recent weeks about how the College Football Playoff committee has never selected a team with two losses. Nor, in its three previous seasons, has the CFP selected two teams from one conference.

One of those precedents is about to be broken with Sunday’s release of the final rankings.

The biggest question, of course, boils down to Alabama vs. Ohio State for the last semifinal spot. The former is a one-loss team that did not win its conference (like Ohio State last year); the latter is a two-loss conference champion (like Penn State last year). In 2016, of course, the CFP committee chose Ohio State. If the same logic applies this year, Alabama will get into the Playoff after a nervous day of watching other teams.

The Crimson Tide, ranked fifth in the CFP, made its argument with an 11-1 season. The No. 8 Buckeyes made theirs with a narrow victory over Wisconsin in Saturday’s Big Ten Championship game.

Alabama did not get any help in Arlington, Texas, when No. 3 Oklahoma defeated No. 11 TCU for the Big 12 title and punched its ticket into the CFP. The Tide did get help in Indianapolis when the Buckeyes cleared the previously unbeaten Badgers.

So, what should fans think?

First, don’t panic over all the noise on television. CBS pays a lot of money to carry SEC football games. Guess which conference its analysts are going to stump for? Fox pays a lot of money to carry Big Ten football games. Guess which conference its analysts are going to stump for?

My vote doesn’t count, but I’m guessing Bama will get in the CFP as the No. 4 seed. That blowout loss to Iowa is likely to be too much to overcome for Ohio State when comparing resumes with Alabama.

In 2014, OSU controversially vaulted TCU to get into the inaugural CFP and went on to win the national title. But a few differences should be noted: 1. That was a one-loss OSU team, not a two-loss team; 2. TCU does not have nearly the cache of Alabama; and 3. Perhaps most important, in 2014 Ohio State blew out Wisconsin 59-0 in the B1G title game. Saturday’s margin was 27-21. A rout would have helped OSU’s case on Saturday but it didn’t happen.

If history (granted, in a small three-year CFP sample) is anything to go by, the Crimson Tide is Playoff-bound for the fourth consecutive year.

Most other bowl projections are simpler. Georgia punched its ticket to the Playoff semifinals with Saturday’s victory over No. 2 Auburn in the SEC Championship Game in Atlanta.

No. 1 Clemson thumped Miami in Saturday’s ACC title game, so the defending national champions have to be a lock as the top seed. The guess here is that Big 12 champ Oklahoma, after soundly beating TCU for the second time in a month, will rise to No. 2.

Two interesting calls here, assuming Alabama gets in: Do we get Clemson-Bama Part III? And if so, which semifinal site (the Rose Bowl or the Sugar Bowl) would get that game? Will the committee reward top seed Clemson with the shorter trip to New Orleans, even if it might mean that the Tigers face an SEC team in the SEC’s backyard and in its traditional major bowl venue?

Georgia was behind Alabama in last week’s rankings, but the win over Auburn should vault the Bulldogs into no worse than the third slot for their CFP debut. Either way, at No. 2 or No. 3, Georgia should face Oklahoma, with seeding only determining which team wears red uniform tops as the de facto “home” team and which wears white.

So, here is our take on which SEC teams will head where for the postseason. One note: I now have a Big Ten team (Ohio State) in the Orange Bowl, which means the ACC — actually Notre Dame — is back in the Citrus slot to face LSU. The second Orange spot and the Citrus spot is a time share between the ACC and the Big Ten; don’t look up the rules unless you enjoy getting headaches.