Change is inevitable in the SEC.

Conference play is a zero sum game. One team wins and another team loses. One team finishes first and another finishes last.

As such, SEC teams have hired 29 different head coaches since 2002. On average, the SEC features two head coaching changes per year. Just once in the 21st century has the league retained all its head coaches from one season to the next: 2006.

RELATED: SEC hot seat rankings entering 2015

But at that time, seven of the 12 SEC programs had hired a new head coach in the last three years. Now there are 14 teams, and there have been just two coaching changes in the last two years — at Florida and Vanderbilt.

Rather than produce mass chaos, the expansion to include Texas A&M and Missouri, and the resulting lucrative TV revenue (hint: SEC Network), seems to have solidified the job status of the head coaches. Even as every SEC West coach stands to make at least $4 million in 2015, it seems likely that all seven will return following the season.

Perhaps, like the time between earthquakes, we’re building up energy for mass firings following the 2016 season. Can a larger, more lucrative SEC really sustain three seasons with a total of three changes?

It seems the answer is no. Steve Spurrier resigned soon after chastising his “enemies” in the press who predicted his retirement, so South Carolina will have a vacancy to fill. Entering the November schedule, Georgia’s Mark Richt also seems to be in jeopardy of losing his job. That would mean four SEC East teams would introduce new coaches between 2014 and 2016.

We should have some answers in the next six weeks. But here are the SEC coaches ranked from least to most secure.

MOST LIKELY A PLACEHOLDER

1. Shawn Elliott, South Carolina: The interim Gamecocks coach has the team playing respectable football through two games. Athletic director Ray Tanner is a former baseball coach at South Carolina likely to be sympathetic to Elliott’s situation. If South Carolina can pull off an upset or two, Elliott should at least get consideration for a permanent role.

But, from the outside, starting over seems like a good idea. The message seemed to get stale at the end of Steve Spurrier’s tenure and recruiting has slowed. With a cavalcade of new money marching into the SEC’s coffers, the Gamecocks can afford to go after some high-dollar candidates.

ALUMINUM BENCH IN THE SUN

2. Mark Richt, Georgia: Rumors of discontent wafted from Athens after long-time offensive coordinator Mike Bobo left for Colorado State last season. The team quickly squashed those publicly. Now they’re back with a vengeance, as the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, among others, have reported that assistant coaches may be bickering and that the administration may have issued a few edicts already.

If Georgia wins out and finishes 9-3, which is no guarantee, at least the team will avoid the type of total embarrassment still possible at places like Arkansas and Auburn. A 10-2 regular season with losses to Alabama and Florida, two potential top-10 teams at the end of the season, wouldn’t be too bad. The loss to Tennessee stings.

Still, Richt’s long history of success and integrity — as well as the bright outlook with recruits like quarterback Jacob Eason — leads me to believe that Richt’s fate after the season isn’t yet sealed. Suffer another upset loss, though, and Richt can start packing.

2016 CAN’T BE LIKE 2015

3. Derek Mason, Vanderbilt: Mason is lucky the Commodores eeked out wins against Middle Tennessee State and Missouri. He avoided two potential silver bullets there: a loss against a lower-tier neighbor and a potential 0-16 SEC record.

What’s more, his defense looks much-improved. A slew of injuries, early retirements and — let’s be honest — a lack of talent on offense have held back the team. A 34-0 loss at Houston was somewhat embarrassing, as was an opening-night home loss to Western Kentucky. But those are very good Group of 5 teams.

Vanderbilt played tough against Georgia and Ole Miss and hasn’t been as embarrassing as last season. The coaching staff seems to have stabilized as well. It seems unlikely that Vandy will force out Mason with the progress he’s made this season. But lose to Kentucky and a 3-9 finish is likely. That would put Mason’s two-year record at 6-18.

Failing to top three wins in three consecutive seasons probably isn’t enough to keep an SEC job even at Vanderbilt, especially with the SEC Network money handy.

4. Gus Malzahn, Auburn: Find a way to beat Texas A&M, Georgia or Alabama in November and the Tigers are a bowl team. Considering the media voted Auburn as the preseason SEC favorites, that’s quite a disappointment.

Fail to win one of those games? Let the Gene Chizik comparisons begin. He’d have fallen from 12-2 to 8-5 to 5-7. He’d also have absorbed back-to-back losses to Nick Saban’s Tide. That’s the wrong direction after such a promising start.

There are excuses available — particularly that Will Muschamp needs more than one season to turn around the defense, that Carl Lawson was hurt for so much of the season, that Duke Williams couldn’t stay on the team, that Nick Marshall wasn’t easily replaced at quarterback. A turnaround in 2016 would cool Malzahn’s seat.

But, barring a miraculous 4-0 November, there’s no doubt he’ll enter next season needing to show something to retain his job.

5. Kevin Sumlin, Texas A&M: If the Aggies can just split against Auburn and LSU, the team is looking at a 9-3 season. That’s very good in a rugged SEC West. Still, Sumlin is developing a reputation as a coach that beats up on the weak and looks outmatched against the nation’s elite.

An opening-night win against Arizona State no longer is jaw-dropping now that the Sun Devils are 4-4, scrapping for bowl eligibility. A multiple-possession loss to LSU would mean that Sumlin’s Aggies fell to the top three teams in the SEC West all by considerable margins.

There seems to be some disarray between the offensive coaching staff, particularly Sumlin, offensive coordinator Jake Spavital and receivers coach Aaron Morehead. Hiring John Chavis hasn’t been an instant fix for a languishing defense. The quarterback position has featured some talented but inconsistent players since Johnny Manziel left.

Sometimes Sumlin looks like one of the better coaches in the SEC — a likable, cool competitor who sets high standards, recruits like hell and keeps everything fun. Other times he seems incapable of functioning as CEO-coach, which is what is asked of head men in the SEC, isn’t the best at in-game management and to this point hasn’t been able to leverage his talent into a team that can consistently compete with Alabama and LSU.

Will the Aggies be content churning out 8-4 or 9-3 seasons every year, clinging to the “next season is ours” mantra? Or will heightened expectations make the fan base restless?

THAT BUYOUT, DOE

6. Bret Bielema, Arkansas: The university owes him $15.4 million if it fires him any time before 2018. That’s job security, and terrific contract negotiation by his agent. It may come in handy as well.

After being ranked as high as No. 4 in the country preseason (in Sporting News’ way-too-early January poll), the team entered the year with lofty expectations. Some even considered Arkansas a dark-horse contender in the SEC West. With Ole Miss, LSU and Mississippi State left on the schedule, it’s possible that Bielema’s team could be 4-7 in three weeks.

Losses to Toledo and Texas Tech early in the season were troubling. The team has experienced a high injury rate this year and did lose some respectable NFL talent from last year’s defense. But next year Arkansas will be breaking in a new quarterback, possibly starting from zero in the backfield and still in need of much better back-end play from the defense.

The outlook has worsened in Fayetteville, and if not for that buyout, Bielema likely would be coaching for his job in 2016.

TEETERING TOWARD WARM

7. Butch Jones, Tennessee: In December, the Vols gave Jones a new contract through 2020. If the school fired its current coach, UT would owe Jones $2 million for each year that remains on Jones’ contract.

After 2016, that would equate to an $8 million buyout. That’s doable for a program like Tennessee, but only if there’s a very clear directive from the boosters and fan base that change must happen NOW. As of today, that would require a pretty disappointing ’16 season.

Jones must make in-game strategy adjustments, but if the team finishes with an 8-4 regular-season record, including several close losses against good teams, the team more or less is on track. Stumble down the stretch, though, and that fiery criticism will linger into the offseason.

8. Mark Stoops, Kentucky: If the Wildcats make a bowl game, all will be forgiven. The shoddy defense, the near-misses against Florida and Auburn and yet another second-half spiral. But if Kentucky falls at Georgia this weekend, a 6-6 season is no foregone conclusion.

UK will have to visit Athens without Boom Williams, one of its best offensive players. Carry four consecutive losses into Nashville and things could spin out of control from there. Stoops has recruited very well, and could sell a 6-6 season with some close losses. But 5-7? Again? There will at least be a few skeptical members of Big Blue Nation entering the 2016 season if that collapse happens.

What looks like a tossup game at home against Louisville also could determine the direction of Stoops’ arrow entering the offseason, especially if a bowl berth is at stake.

VERY SAFE FOR NOW

9. Gary Pinkel, Missouri: Winning back-to-back SEC East titles bought Pinkel some time after his job seemed in jeopardy following the school’s first go-round in the SEC. He’s the all-time winningest coach in school history, well respected within the athletic department and by the fan base.

Still, missing a bowl game after being ranked as a preseason top 25 team would be a major disappointment for Mizzou. The continuity of the coaching staff that he enjoyed for so long seems to be on the verge of widespread two-year changes (though Barry Odom looks like an excellent hire at defensive coordinator). And this year’s offense has been an embarrassment.

Whether it’s his fault or not, the team also has gone through a series of high-profile suspensions and dismissals, including Maty Mauk, Dorial Green-Beckham and Marcus Loud. So while Pinkel is very safe for now, another poor season in ’16 could change that equation.

10. Les Miles, LSU: The Tigers must face Alabama, Arkansas, Ole Miss, Texas A&M and perhaps Florida in the next month. But at 7-0, ranked in the top 5 of every major poll, LSU is having a whale of a season thus far.

Before the year, Miles ranked second on our hot seat list. LSU lost five games due to disgusting quarterback play, then lost cherished defensive coordinator John Chavis to Texas A&M. Mississippi State, Ole Miss and Auburn surpassed or tied the Tigers in ’14, while Arkansas and Texas A&M seemed poised for big leaps forward.

Instead, LSU’s defense is mean as usual, Leonard Fournette may be the single best offensive player in the country and Brandon Harris is piloting a much better passing game. Even if LSU tanks through the hardest portion of its schedule, Miles isn’t going anywhere in Baton Rouge.

WOULD REQUIRE A MAJOR SCANDAL TO REMOVE

11. Hugh Freeze, Ole Miss: His best asset continues to be as a recruiter. He hasn’t managed to duplicate the magic of that ’13 class, but Ole Miss consistently outperforms blue-chip programs on National Signing Day. It is through that pipeline that Freeze has set up the Rebels as a program that should be pretty good for the foreseeable future. It helps that he’s beaten Alabama in back-to-back years, and nearly beat Auburn both seasons as well. But most still see him as average at best when it comes to in-game calls and adjustments.

12. Dan Mullen, Mississippi State: When I attended SEC Media Days in July, no coach sported a bigger smile than Mullen. It was as if he was celebrating the equity he’d bought himself in Starkville, along with his new contract for more than $4 million per season. I got the sense that he’ll be content to stay coaching the Bulldogs for the next 15 years, if the team will allow it. Mullen can’t let the team slip backward to six wins per season, but as long as he averages a record of about 8-4, and doesn’t get crushed annually by Ole Miss, he should be safe in this job.

13. Nick Saban, Alabama: America’s favorite college football pastime has become guessing when the Tide and Saban might find themselves humbled. Well, Saban’s greatest legacy in Tuscaloosa eventually will be his relentless consistency and his unmatched drive across every aspect of a college coaches’ job. It’s hard to envision him losing his fastball like Bobby Bowden or Joe Paterno. Most people assume he’ll just eventually tire of the pressure and lack of fun and call it a career.

That could happen within the next few years. I’m not even sure Saban himself knows when he’ll be finished coaching. But Alabama will never fire the man probably considered the second-most famous coach in the history of the state. Not unless there’s some sort of wild, unforeseen scandal — and as grouchy and robotic as Saban can be, he doesn’t seem like the type.

EXTENDED HONEYMOON

14. Jim McElwain, Florida: Most Gators fans only wanted to see a semblance of offensive improvement and a comfortable bowl appearance. It took McElwain six games to deliver both. It may take him just nine games to deliver an SEC East title, a remarkable feat considering the team’s offensive challenges entering the season.

As the only first-year head coach in the SEC, even at Florida, McElwain would’ve gotten a pass for this year barring total disaster. Now he’s got a chance to win a Coach of the Year award and solidify himself as one of the best in the business within the next few years.