I hate, hate, hate, hate the vast majority of hot-seat talk.

I realize that’s a strange way to lead into a column about potential coaches on the hot seat in the SEC, but I have my reasons. We do this thing where we ignore the patterns of behavior from an athletic director, which at pretty much everywhere that isn’t Florida State, is the person making that call.

It blew my mind to see Illinois coach Lovie Smith on the proverbial “preseason hot seat” because it completely disregarded the fact that new athletic director Josh Whitman made a massive financial investment in the former NFL coach just 2 years earlier. (Do people realize that Smith is the No. 13 highest-paid coach in America?) It didn’t make sense to put the guy on the hot seat when the chances of him getting fired — even with another horrendous season — were slim to none. The more likely scenario, in my opinion, was Smith realizing he was in over his head and calling it quits.

So do you get my point? Being on the hot seat isn’t just looking at the bottom of the standings and deciding a coach is on the chopping block. A lot of factors go into whether a program pulls the trigger.

That might seem like a strange concept to the SEC, which seemingly has half its teams pull the trigger on a new coach every year. This is the same conference that has just 4 coaches remaining among the 14 who started the 2015 season.

Call me crazy, but that trend won’t repeat itself this year. In fact, I’d be stunned if multiple SEC coaches were let go at season’s end. I actually think the most likely outcome is zero fired SEC coaches at season’s end.

Let’s take a closer look at some coaches who have been on hot-seat lists in the past few months and break down where they stand heading into the home stretch:

Barry Odom, Mizzou

I wrote in May why Odom was the SEC coach who had the most questions to answer in 2018 for a variety of reasons.

As a defensive-minded coach, he had yet to finish better than No. 90 nationally in scoring defense (the Tigers were 0-6 when they didn’t score at least 45 points in 2017). He was also winless against FBS teams with winning records last year, which made the 7-win season a bit hollow. The fact that Drew Lock returned and said “there’s no reason Mizzou can’t end its season with a championship” raised expectations in Year 3 for Odom. So did the fact that his athletic director Jim Sterk said that there wasn’t anyone on Mizzou’s 2018 schedule that the team couldn’t compete with or score with.

I even outlined the things Odom could do to answer some of those questions I, as well as others, had about him:

  • A) Win 8 games
  • B) Beat a few quality SEC teams
  • C) Win multiple games without scoring 45 points
  • D) All the above

So let’s revisit that. Mizzou just clinched bowl eligibility, and it ends the season with a pair of teams who haven’t. That means 8 wins is extremely realistic even before the postseason.

As for the quality of opponents, that was still in question up until the Florida game. Not only did Odom finally beat a ranked opponent, but he did so in dominant fashion on the road. To get his first SEC win of the year like he did felt significant.

And believe it or not, Mizzou has 4 wins this year in games that it didn’t hit 45 points. That’s a credit to an improved defense, which ranks No. 70 in scoring.

As long as Odom doesn’t collapse and drop both games to end the season, my guess is that he keeps his job. Consecutive 7-win seasons at a place like Mizzou isn’t exactly cause to fire someone, especially considering Odom has said all the right things.

It’s important to remember that Sterk didn’t hire Odom, who filled in after the disaster that spoiled the end of the Gary Pinkel era. That’s part of why Odom’s job speculation seemed more legitimate than not.

But I’d still bank on Odom getting a fourth year in Columbia.

Gus Malzahn, Auburn

The fact that Malzahn is even on this list in Year 1 of a 7-year, $49 million deal says a lot. It says a lot about him and it says a lot about Auburn.

Auburn athletic director Allen Green gave Malzahn the vote of confidence that he’d be back in 2019, which is crazy in itself considering the $32 million buyout that the Tigers would have to fork over to fire him. That, of course, was said before road matchups at Georgia and Alabama with Auburn already eliminated from defending its SEC West title.

But apparently Malzahn still has some concern about his future?

Even if Malzahn didn’t say what many thought he did, the discussions about his long-term future aren’t going anywhere. After all, it wasn’t Greene who gave Malzahn that deal. That matters.

For now, I’m going to take Greene’s word that Malzahn will be back and that the Tigers wouldn’t eat that big of a buyout for a likely 7-win regular season.

As for whether Malzahn coaches out the remainder of that deal beyond 2019, that’s a different discussion.

Derek Mason, Vanderbilt

Mason might be a surprising name to include on this list because expectations were lowest for him, but his job security is definitely worth breaking down.

The Commodores are in jeopardy of missing the postseason for the second consecutive year — after Mason got an extension for earning a bowl berth in 2016 — which would be the fourth such time in his 5 years in Nashville. A 7-31 mark in SEC play isn’t trending in the right direction, either.

Mason’s situation is unique compared to other SEC programs because he’s the only coach who has to publicly campaign for more administrational support when it comes to facilities. Spending on football like an SEC school still isn’t a priority to Vanderbilt.

Mason has done everything and more off the field that administration could have asked of him, but one would think it’ll still take more than high Academic Progress Report scores for Mason to get some long-term security.

Continuing to beat Tennessee would certainly help. If he could somehow lead the Commodores to consecutive victories to earn a bowl berth by clinching that against Tennessee, he’s not going anywhere.

The interesting thing in all of this is that Vanderbilt is still searching for its next athletic director. David Williams, who gave Mason his 3-year extension before the 2017 season, stepped down. It’s certainly possible that the school’s next AD decides that canning the coach with another bowl-less season is priority No. 1. We really won’t have a good idea about that until Williams’ successor takes over and addresses Mason’s future. Fortunately, that’s expected to happen soon.

Whoever takes over, it seems like these final 2 games are extremely important for Mason.

Ed Orgeron, LSU

After showing up on virtually every preseason hot-seat list in existence, Orgeron should have been off hot seat lists awhile ago. The only reason I even brought him up here was to praise how he has the Tigers positioned for a 10-win season with one of the toughest schedules in America. By the way, Orgeron now 14-4 with 6 wins against ranked opponents since the Troy loss that put him on the supposed hot seat in the first place.

LSU athletic director Joe Alleva wasn’t going to have a short leash on the guy he stuck his neck out for. Alleva’s plan was always to give Orgeron time to recruit and build his team because that’s his strength. It’s clear now that he isn’t going anywhere.

If he shows up on any hot-seat list this offseason, that person is drunker than an LSU tailgate.