They always look low.

When regular-season win totals come out, they always look low. They look low because we’re used to looking at records including bowl games.

Also, when those come out, it sort of kills the buzz that everyone feels about their team’s chances of going undefeated. It’s just constant disrespect.

DraftKings released its regular season win totals for 2023. Here’s the breakdown for each SEC team (not including the juice):

  • Alabama — 10.5 wins
  • Arkansas — 7 wins
  • Auburn — 6.5 wins
  • Florida — 5.5 wins
  • Georgia — 11.5 wins
  • Kentucky — 6.5 wins
  • LSU — 9.5 wins
  • Mizzou — 6.5 wins
  • MSU — 6.5 wins
  • Ole Miss — 7.5 wins
  • South Carolina — 6.5 wins
  • Tennessee — 9.5 wins
  • Texas A&M — 7.5 wins
  • Vanderbilt — 3.5 wins

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Instead of doing a full breakdown for each team and inevitably speaking outside of both sides of my mouth when my Crystal Ball prediction series drops in August — that’s where I pick every game involving an SEC team for the upcoming season — I decided to focus on the 5 bets that jumped out to me:

Alabama — Over 10.5 wins (+120)

Answer this — do you believe Nick Saban is about to have multiple regular-season losses in consecutive years for the first time at Alabama? I don’t. That’s essentially what the over/under is forcing you to decide. Do you think Saban is done competing at the sport’s highest level, or do you think he’s still got another SEC West title in him?

I’m saying that because the Tide have more questions from a personnel standpoint than really any point in this 15-year run. Even the quarterback position is unsettled, which feels extremely rare. We can break down the schedule until we’re blue in the face — Texas, Tennessee and LSU are all in Tuscaloosa this year — but this comes down to a trust that Saban can still develop talent at an elite level. I’m not bailing on that yet, so I’ll take plus money on Alabama to hit 11-1.

Georgia — Over 11.5 wins (+130)

If you’re predicting UGA to go 12-0 with potentially 12 games as a double-digit favorite, you have to take plus money to get there. Georgia hasn’t lost a regular-season game since 2020. Doing that in 3 consecutive years is by no means a given, but how can you not have faith in Kirby Smart after he put together a 15-0 season despite the fact that he had 15 players drafted from a national championship squad in 2021?

Sure, you’re not getting much wiggle room here. UGA can have 1 bad day and that’s all she wrote on a season-long bet. If Oklahoma was on the schedule still, there’s no way that number would be at 11.5. But with that cancelation and the 2-year domination of promising Josh Heupel teams at Tennessee, it makes all the sense in the world to (responsibly) pull the trigger on the over.

Vanderbilt — Over 3.5 wins (-125)

The disrespect, man. Clark Lea had Vandy hit the over in September last year. Want a prediction? I think he hits that again in September with a 4-2 start. I get that the nonconference slate is a little tricky because there are 2 road games in there with trips out to Sam Hartman-less Wake Forest and Barry Odom’s UNLV. Still, though. Vandy hit 5-7 with 2 SEC wins even though that was with a defense that really never found its way. That group should be improved in Year 3, and AJ Swann flashed potential as a true freshman quarterback.

Even though that’s not a plus-money bet, which is what I’d prefer, I think the odds of Vandy regressing by 2 games aren’t very high.

Tennessee — Under 9.5 wins (-150)

I don’t want to rile up #VolTwitter because I believe in Josh Heupel. But Tennessee is 1 of 3 teams in America that has both Alabama and Georgia on the schedule (Kentucky and Auburn are the others). Sure, the Alabama streak is over. It’s still a trip to a place where Tennessee hasn’t won in 20 years. Speaking of things that hadn’t happened in 2 decades, in the Vols’ best season in 21 years, they still had a dud against South Carolina. Even if we get the best version of Joe Milton, those week-to-week questions about the Vols’ defense aren’t fading just yet.

Going 9-3 wouldn’t be some sign that 2022 was a one-off. If anything, it would validate that the Vols are here to stay. I realize that the -150 is supposed to de-incentivize the under, but I’ll take my chances that Tennessee won’t post consecutive 10-win regular seasons for the first time in 25 years.

Auburn — Under 6.5 wins (+115)

I applaud the efforts of Hugh Freeze in the transfer portal. He took over a roster in desperate need of help, and to his credit, he’s done a darn good job of overhauling it. But hitting 7 regular season wins would mean a multi-win improvement for a team with a ton of moving pieces in the toughest division in the sport. That climb isn’t easy a year removed from going 1-5 against the West. And obviously, Georgia looms. No, I don’t care that both of the Georgia and Alabama games are at Jordan-Hare Stadium this year.

Even if improvement in the trenches is coming, it’s hard to get too high on Auburn knowing that last year’s game-wrecking force, Derick Hall, is off to the NFL and the passing game is loaded with more questions than answers in a new scheme. If Auburn is playing for win No. 8 in a bowl game, it feels like Freeze will be in the SEC Coach of the Year conversation. I’m not saying that can’t happen. I’m just saying the odds of the alternative are much more favorable, especially knowing there’s plus money available.