SEC Week 11 predictions (and bets)

We’ve got three weeks remaining in the 2016 regular season.

The East is basically imploding while the West has narrowed to Alabama and Auburn.

Hopefully Auburn and Alabama will win out so we can get to the end of the month with an Iron Bowl to decide the West. Won’t that be fun?

Let’s get to the Week 11 picks and begin with the results.

Results

Kentucky at Tennessee (-13.5)

Want to bet this game? Join here and use south10 code for a free $10 wager

Michael: Based on the last five weeks, it’s hard for me to see why Tennessee would be favored by this many against any SEC team, not to mention one that has gone 3-1 in league play during that span.

Kentucky’s running-based offense could give the Volunteers’ defense some real issues right now as the Vols continue to struggle to find enough bodies to play on the defensive line. The Wildcats average over 216 rushing yards per game and will be getting explosive RB Jojo Kemp back for this game. UK’s “Wildcat” package has been particularly difficult for opponents to slow down in recent weeks.

The key to this game could come down to linebacker play for the Vols. If Darrin Kirkland is close to 100 percent and Colton Jumper bounces back from a few bad SEC games, Tennessee should manage enough stops to get the win. Without Jalen Hurd, the UT offense looked like a different team last week with John Kelly running the ball, albeit against vastly inferior competition, and it now appears to be adding Alvin Kamara back into the lineup. Until the Vols consistently look that good against an SEC opponent, winning out remains a huge question mark.

Tennessee 31, Kentucky 27

Kevin: Can Tennessee slow down Kentucky’s run game? Maybe. At this point, betting on anything other than overall mediocrity in the SEC East is difficult. I think the Vols will win the game, but it seems like the spread is somewhat aggressive, even if the Vols took it to Tennessee Tech last week.

Tennessee 38, Kentucky 28

LSU (-7) at Arkansas

Want to bet this game? Join here and use south10 code for a free $10 wager

Michael: This weekend, Arkansas will be going for the first three-year streak in this series since 1929! The only way to get there will be to slow down LSU’s talented backfield duo of Leonard Fournette and Derrius Guice.

The Razorbacks did a 180 on defense last week and shut down Florida’s rushing game, allowing 12 yards total on the ground in the game. LSU will probably surpass that on the first series of this game but likely won’t run wild on the Hogs. The Auburn game looks to be more an aberration than the norm after nine games.

Watching the Arkansas offense take on the LSU defense may very well provide the best matchup of the weekend in the SEC. The most points surrendered by the Tigers all season has been 21 while the Razorbacks have scored more than that in every game except the Auburn game.

Arkansas 24, LSU 21

Kevin: Is LSU really that different of a team from Week 1 when Les Miles was still the coach? I know Ed Orgeron provided a temporary spark, and that’s normal for the situation, but I’m hesitant to pick LSU in this game, especially coming off the Alabama game.

Alabama-LSU at home at night is an emotional game. LSU battled hard. No chance it plays at the top of their game against Arkansas, right?

Arkansas 21, LSU 20

Auburn (-10) at Georgia

Want to bet this game? Join here and use south10 code for a free $10 wager

Michael: Georgia got back to the ground game and found some success on the road against Kentucky last week, while Auburn struggled to put away Vanderbilt at home. Recipe for an upset this week in Athens?

If the Bulldogs have success running the ball, this game could come down to the wire. Considering the fact it looks more and more likely that Kamryn Pettway will not play this weekend, the Tigers could also be down the offense’s battering ram of a back.

Running on Kentucky is one thing, but doing it on Auburn is quite another. I like UGA to cover but not win this game.

Auburn 34, Georgia 28

Kevin: Georgia got a nice win against Kentucky last week. That sentence is all you need to know about the SEC East.

Auburn has rattled off six straight wins, including three conference victories since the bye week a month ago. This game feels dangerous to me, and I think this has upset potential. Will Pettway play? If he does, he likely won’t be at 100 percent.

I think Auburn wins the game in mildly dramatic fashion late in the fourth quarter.

Auburn 31, Georgia 30

Ole Miss at Texas A&M (-10)

Want to bet this game? Join here and use south10 code for a free $10 wager

Michael: This is a tough game to predict with so much uncertainty at QB for both teams. I suspect Ole Miss will play both Jason Pellerin and Shea Patterson in the game and have some success with each player against a fading A&M defense.

John Chavis’ unit failed to show up last week and could be in for a tough game not knowing what the Rebels will do under center. If Patterson does start the game, look for him to have initial success as Hugh Freeze is one of the best in the nation in setting up his offense for success early in games. However, with either young quarterback, tempo will likely drop off and that hurts an Ole Miss team that feeds off the pace of play.

Can Trayveon Williams handle being the workhorse of the offense if Jake Hubenak struggles in the game? The true freshman seems to have hit a real wall ever since the Alabama game. How well he does in that role will play a huge factor in this game. Look for A&M’s defense to respond to the challenge and come up big in this game.

Texas A&M 24, Ole Miss 20

Kevin: I’ve got to go with Texas A&M at home in this game even though they lost Trevor Knight. While Knight was iffy at times as a passer, he was a near constant threat to run the ball. I think the offense will take a step back with Hubenak under center even if the talent level really isn’t much of a difference.

As such, I have a hard time picking the Aggies to cover the 10-point spread. Yikes, loss number six for Ole Miss?

Texas A&M 31, Ole Miss 28

Mississippi State at Alabama (-29.5)

Want to bet this game? Join here and use south10 code for a free $10 wager

Michael: MSU’s upset of Texas A&M was probably the best thing to happen to Nick Saban all season as he now doesn’t have to sell his team on the dangers of overlooking the Bulldogs.

Mississippi State quarterback Nick Fitzgerald has been on a bit of a hot streak in recent weeks but has yet to face a defense close to the caliber of the Alabama unit. The LSU game had to take a lot out of Alabama. I could see a minor letdown in this game, leaving a crack open for Mississippi State to cover.

Alabama 41, Mississippi State 14

Kevin: Alabama letdown week? Does Alabama have letdown weeks? Maybe, but they’re still going to cover this spread.

Nick Fitzgerald has been running the ball quite well, but we all know how that works out against Alabama. I’ll take the Tide to cruise to victory here.

Alabama 42, Mississippi State 10

South Carolina at Florida (-11.5)

Want to bet this game? Join here and use south10 code for a free $10 wager

Michael: The Muschamp bowl suddenly has some intrigue following the Gamecocks’ three-game winning streak and Florida’s collapse against Arkansas. It will be fascinating to see which side is more fired up for this game this weekend as South Carolina can qualify for a bowl bid early with a win in this game.

As good as Jake Bentley has been so far, he’s not faced a defensive back as good as any Florida will have for him to go up against this week in Gainesville. For South Carolina, this game will likely come down to the matchup of the offensive line versus the Gators’ defensive line. Not a great sign for the Gamecocks.

With Luke Del Rio out of the lineup, the Gators’ offense should actually improve this weekend. Judging by Jim McElwain’s comments during the SEC teleconference, Del Rio has been playing hurt and should not have been playing against Arkansas. Expect a steady game from Austin Appleby at home and just enough points to put away the Gamecocks for good.

Florida 23, South Carolina 10

Kevin: Jake Bentley has given South Carolina a boost, but he’s done it against UMass, Tennessee and Missouri. I’m not taking anything away from the youngster, but I’m also not ready to crown him the next Tom Brady.

The obvious play here is to take South Carolina with the +11.5 points — obvious bets always seem to fail though, no? Florida’s been atrocious, and South Carolina has looked much better.

I’m going to take Florida to win, but 11.5 is just too much for this Gators team that struggles to score. If the spread were 10 or under, I’d take the Gators.

Florida 23, South Carolina 16

Vanderbilt at Missouri (-3.5)

Want to bet this game? Join here and use south10 code for a free $10 wager

Michael: How in the world Mizzou is favored in this game is beyond me. Much like in the Kentucky game, the Tigers have no business being a favorite in a league game right now while searching for its first SEC win of the season. Vanderbilt also has the two best players in this matchup in linebacker Zach Cunningham and running back Ralph Webb.

The Commodores gave Auburn a four-quarter game on the road last week as starting quarterback Kyle Shurmur played arguably the best game of his career on the road against a solid Tigers defense. If the sophomore can carry that momentum into this week, the Commodores should have no problem in this game.

Vanderbilt 35, Missouri 28

Kevin: Kyle Shurmur looked pretty good last week! Can he continue it against Missouri? I think he can. No chance I’m taking Missouri to win by 4 points in this game.

Vanderbilt 21, Missouri 17