What can we expect from the College Football Playoff in Year 2?
Hungry for more?
The inaugural College Football Playoff was a colossal revenue and ratings triumph for ESPN. The four-team bracket served as a culmination of nearly a decade’s worth of griping from coaches and fans yearning for an alternate way of determining a national champion instead of the oft-criticized, computer-based Bowl Championship Series.
The CFP National Championship pitting Ohio State and Oregon averaged 33.3 million viewers and an 18.2 household rating, delivering both the largest audience and highest rating in cable TV history according to Nielsen.
“That was a 21 percent increase over the ratings for last year’s BCS National Championship between Florida State and Auburn, which was a far closer game,” NPR’s Nathan Rott said.
Alabama’s national semifinal appearance against the Buckeyes in the Sugar Bowl and the Ducks’ battle with Florida State in the Rose Bowl also were wildly popular on Jan. 1, bringing in a combined 56 million viewers. In all, the first CFP brought much excitement and was watched by nearly 100 million fans despite two of the three games providing very little drama.
“The inaugural College Football Playoff was a resounding success by all measures,” said ESPN President John Skipper. “Fans responded in record numbers across television and digital platforms. It’s been a great first year and we look forward to the opportunity to build upon the excitement as we continue our long-term commitment to this tremendous event.”
So what’s in store for the encore?
Let’s first step through a quick refresher course on the CFP, reviewing key elements of the selection process, important dates and notable changes this season. We’ll re-introduce you to the 13-member 2015 selection committee to kick things off:
- Jeff Long, Chair (Arkansas AD)
- Barry Alvarez (Wisconsin AD)
- Lieutenant General Mike Gould (Retired three-star general)
- Pat Haden (USC AD)
- Kirby Hocutt (Texas Tech AD)
- Tom Jernstedt (Former NCAA Executive VP)
- Bobby Johnson (Former Vandy HC)
- Tom Osborne (Former Nebraska AD)
- Dan Radakovich (Clemson AD)
- Condoleeza Rice (Former Secretary of State)
- Mike Tranghese (Former Big East Commissioner)
- Steve Wieberg (Former USA Today reporter)
- Tyrone Willingham (Former Notre Dame HC)
A look at the current Power 5 conference assignments for @CFBPlayoff. #CFBLIVE on ESPN pic.twitter.com/3miDUTtRyO
— ESPN CollegeFootball (@ESPNCFB) August 19, 2015
Only six CFP rankings will release this fall according to ESPN’s Heather Dinich, who does a great job keeping us media types informed on the daily inner workings of the committee. Here are those dates:
Weekly CFP top 25 rankings releases coming on ESPN, all times ET: Nov. 3 7:30; Nov. 10 7:30; Nov. 17 9:30; Nov. 24 7; Dec. 1 7; Dec. 6 noon — Heather Dinich (@CFBHeather) August 13, 2015
This year’s CFP bowl schedule is as follows:
Bowl | Location | Date/Time | TV |
Cotton Bowl Playoff Semifinal Game |
Arlington, TX AT&T Stadium |
Thu., Dec. 31 4 or 8pm ET |
ESPN |
Orange Bowl Playoff Semifinal Game |
Miami Gardens, FL Sun Life Stadium |
Thu., Dec. 31 4 or 8pm ET |
ESPN |
CFP National Championship Semifinal Winner vs. Semifinal Winner |
Glendale, AZ U. of Phoenix Stadium |
Mon., Jan. 11 8:30pm ET |
ESPN |
Not-so-bold predictions for Year 2 of the College Football Playoff
- Ohio State will be the top seed (and unbeaten)
- An SEC champ will make field with one or fewer losses
Judging by the way the CFP selection committee valued the overall strength of the SEC’s challenging schedule week to week, you’d have to think Long and his associates would have great respect for the conference’s last team standing once again in 2015 if said team has one loss or fewer.
Two losses would complicate things against fellow one-loss — or unbeaten — Power 5 champions.
The Crimson Tide secured the top overall seed last fall by winning eight straight games, including several over ranked teams, following an early-season loss at Ole Miss on Oct. 4.
RELATED: Why Alabama will or won’t make the CFP in 2015
Not knowing how much emphasis the committee would put on late-season relevance and the unsubstantiated eye test of winning pretty, many assumed TCU or Baylor would be the final team in, but the Buckeyes took that bid with 11 consecutive wins in largely dominant fashion, culminating with a Big Ten Championship Game blowout of Wisconsin.
Several times last fall, we mentioned the selection committee’s points of emphasis — what they call “selection protocol” — leading up to the final reveal in December. We’ll skim the surface and hit key points below, but you can read the CFP’s official protocol standards here.
How teams are valued during the weekly ranking process
- Conference championships won
- Strength of schedule
- Head-to-head competition
- Comparing results against common opponents
- Relative factors that may have altered a team’s performance (injuries)
It’s important to remember, as Long stated several times during the inaugural season, the committee re-ranks teams from scratch after every week. Clean slate. The voting process for each member is fairly simple and anonymous. Those guidelines can be found here.
In short, there’s no such thing as an automatic qualifier and all teams are judged equally. The selection committee does however have responsibilities when selecting the remaining New Year’s Six bowl matchups.
New Year’s Six selection committee responsibilities
- Create competitive matchups
- Attempt to avoid rematches of regular-season games and repeat appearances in specific bowls
- Consider geography
As for trying to project this season’s final teams four months out, we know finishing unbeaten in a Power 5 conference all but locks up a berth. Per Bovada’s current national title odds, Ohio State, Alabama, TCU and Auburn are the current betting favorites. USC, Notre Dame and Baylor are also in the mix, according to the oddsmakers.
The chances two teams from the same division make the final four are slim, but talk about ultimate conference bragging rights should that happen for the SEC.