Death, taxes and an overzealous GM reaching for a franchise quarterback in the first round of an NFL Draft.

Those realities are more certain than Nick Saban finding fault with a 31-0 halftime lead.

Each of the past 22 years, somebody has taken a quarterback in the first round. Sometimes it has worked out beautifully (Peyton Manning, Cam Newton, Aaron Rodgers, Pat Mahomes, etc.,) but more often, they might as well have picked a punter (JaMarcus Russell, Johnny Manziel, Tim Tebow, Jake Locker, Blaine Gabbert, Josh Freeman, Brady Quinn, Ryan Leaf, Dan McGwire, and on, and on).

Sixteen quarterbacks have been taken in the first round of the past 5 drafts. Five went last year. Three each were selected in 2017 and 2016. Since Michael Vick went No. 1 overall in 2001, there have been multiple first-rounders every year except 2013, when EJ Manuel (oops) was the lone first-round pick.

So, yes, without question, one way or another, the 2019 NFL Draft will add names to both lists.

The 8-figure question is, which ones actually deserve to be taken in the first round?

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First, a little background: Everybody with a Twitter handle fancies themselves as a QB Whisperer and draft savant, but I like my track record. I’ve missed on some, but I’ve also publicly stayed away from some of the biggest recent busts, guys analysts loved — most notably Manziel (improv alone doesn’t work), Gabbert (this isn’t 2-hand touch), RGIII (was convinced his style, body could not hold up) and Teddy Bridgewater, for similar reasons.

I thought Dak Prescott was better than Carson Wentz and certainly Paxton Lynch. You can debate Wentz, but not the fact that Prescott should have gone in the first round in 2016.

For two years, I wrote I would draft Deshaun Watson No. 1 overall and would laugh at GMs who picked another signal caller instead. I underestimated Patrick Mahomes, but clearly, both should have gone ahead of Mitch Trubisky.

I wasn’t enamored with Jameis Winston because of accuracy issues, let alone all of the personal baggage. (Do you know how hard it is to overthrow Kelvin Benjamin against overmatched college DBs? Winston did so repeatedly at FSU.) I’m not the least bit surprised Winston has continued to struggle with accuracy. He finished 21st this year, even in a career year of sorts in which he connected on 64 percent of his throws.

When I watch college quarterbacks, I do so with the NFL in mind. I do not care, in the least, about height. The NFL has changed. I do care about style and tendencies. What is your first instinct when the play breaks down because, in the NFL, the pocket is going to collapse?

QBs like Lamar Jackson who have to run to win won’t survive, but QBs who can move, elude and will run are thriving. Still … accuracy trumps all.

As such, there are only 3 I would consider taking in the first round in 2019.

1. Kyler Murray, Oklahoma

Everything about his game translates to the modern NFL. There is a clear and critical difference between QBs who can run and QBs who have to run.

Murray can run, but he doesn’t have to. Lamar Jackson has to. RGIII had to. Jackson had more carries in college than completions (655 to 619). RGIII had 3 seasons (3!) in which he ran more than Murray did in 2018.

Murray only ran the ball 207 times in college. He completed 350 passes.

There will always be easy, inaccurate, lazy narratives surrounding mobile QBs, but Murray’s passing ability is closer to Drew Brees and Russell Wilson than it is to Jackson and RGIII. Arm strength, touch, creativity, and the ability to elude the blitz?

If you’re going to trade up, he’s the reason to do so.

2. Will Grier, West Virginia

Some guys are just natural born quarterbacks. Grier is one of those guys.

Others have stronger arms. Others have better measurables. But few, if any, in this draft class have a better, more thorough understanding of how to play the position. His father, Chad, was a college quarterback and also his coach. Will Grier has made the most of his early head start in learning the position’s nuances.

He won’t be the second QB taken, and I’ll be mildly surprised/impressed if he is taken in the first round.

But he has that classic hindsight quality: In 3 years, when he’s a starting QB in the NFL, people will wonder why he lasted so long.

3. Dwayne Haskins, Ohio State

He might be the first QB taken. And I might have him higher if I saw him play as much as I did Murray or Grier.

The physical tools are impressive. I also liked the variety of his throws. That’s an important and often overlooked quality. The NFL requires you to make so many types of throws, not just fastballs. How many times have you seen Drew Brees arc a ball just over a linebacker’s outstretched hand, with enough velocity to beat safety help? Sure, the heater would get there quicker, but it also would be intercepted or broken up.

Haskins can make those kinds of throws, too.

What about … Drew Lock? Ryan Finley? Daniel Jones?

Ah, the three poster boys for what a prototypical NFL quarterback is supposed to look like. You’ll hear all three mentioned as first-round possibilities. Just not here.

Lock had a record-breaking career at Missouri. He, too, has the measurables and probably the strongest arm in the draft. Without question, he looks the part of an early first-rounder. He’ll impress in workouts much like Trubisky did.

Call it system bias, but I never looked at Lock and saw Matthew Stafford. That’s not an indictment of Lock’s right arm. Again, that’s an NFL weapon.

It’s everything else. The completion percentage has never been overly impressive. He struggled against better competition and also when his biggest deep threat was absent. And some of his decisions are hard to un-see.

Surround Will Grier with the same talent, and I’m convinced Grier gets more done, wins more games.

Finley and Jones are the latest versions of Trubisky. And it’s not merely the fact that all three played at ACC schools within 25 miles of one another.

Finley is 6-4. Jones is even bigger, a robust 6-5, 220. Both are 3-year starters at N.C. State and Duke, respectively, but neither had a single season in which they topped 25 touchdown passes.

N.C. State’s track record might help Finley, but his profile is closer to Mike Glennon’s than Philip Rivers’ or Russell Wilson’s.

Jones has come out of nowhere, and I can’t figure out why, other than the measurables. Even with a QB guru in David Cutcliffe, Jones never completed more than 60 percent of his passes and finished with 29 interceptions against just 52 touchdowns.

Some guys look the part. Other guys play the part. Which do you prefer? As much as anything, that’s what the 2019 NFL Draft will reveal.

Five years ago, GMs wouldn’t have given Murray or Grier a second look at first-round consideration. Too small. The game has changed.

If GMs are smart, their draft board will too.