Texas A&M vs. Miami: Final thoughts and a prediction

Yes, it’s a bit of a head-scratcher. Texas A&M lost last Saturday to Appalachian State, an embarrassing defeat that sent the No. 6 Aggies tumbling down to No. 24 in the AP poll. So how is this 1-1 Aggies team a 5-point favorite to beat an upstart Miami Hurricanes squad, ranked No. 13 with a 2-0 start?

I don’t know. But what I do know is that the oddsmakers generally know a lot more about it than the rest of us. I’ll just leave it at that and look forward to the 8 p.m. ET Saturday kickoff at Kyle Field.

The Canes have been revived by the arrival of head coach and former Miami player Mario Cristobal. They have a projected 1st-round NFL Draft pick in quarterback Tyler Van Dyke and an outstanding running back in Henry Parrish Jr. The Ole Miss transfer rushed for 100-plus yards in each of the first 2 games this season.

All the talk around Aggieland centers on quarterback play. Who will head coach Jimbo Fisher send out there to battle in this game of ranked teams? Will he stick with the Haynes King project in hopes that the redshirt sophomore continues to mature with playing experience? Or will he pull the plug and go with the more grizzled veteran Max Johnson?

For my money, that’s nothing more than a distraction. Whether it’s King, or Johnson, or Conner Weigman, or Reveille, this game is going to be decided on the health and well-being of the Aggies’ offensive line. That’s where Texas A&M has struggled this season, and the dominoes have fallen from there; reduced gameplan, poor quarterback play, nonexistent running game.

There’s hope that center Bryce Foster will return this week. The All-SEC Freshman Team selection last year has not seen action in 2022 because of an illness. Fisher is hopeful that he can quickly work himself back into playing shape for Saturday.

It doesn’t sound like that’s likely to happen, but perhaps we will see him make his debut in a couple of series.

In addition, right guard Layden Robinson has been playing, but not at full strength. And that’s a problem, because there’s inexperience on the left side of the line.

If both are at full strength, and there’s really no indication that they are, the Aggies could return to the ground-and-pound offense, making the job of quarterback — whoever it may be — a much easier task.

Prediction: Texas A&M 19, Miami 13

Both defenses rank in the top 20 nationally in points allowed, so I look for that trend to continue. You can’t discount home-field advantage. In the Fisher era, Texas A&M is 22-5 at Kyle Field.

With an offensive line still likely not 100 percent, all the pressure rests with an Aggies defense that ranks 11th in the nation, giving up an average of just 8.5 points per game. It faces a very different offense than the one it saw last week. Miami likes to move the ball through the air in chunks with Van Dyke at the helm. No more demoralizing 17-play drives.

If the Aggies’ offensive line is healthy, look for them to produce the double-digit-play drives and do the demoralizing. If that is indeed the case, the Aggies win comfortably.

Miami likes to strike quickly through the air. And that may or may not play into the Aggies’ hands, depending on whether they can put pressure on the Miami quarterback, who has been sacked 4 times this season.

Statistically, the Aggies lead the SEC and rank 6th nationally in passing defense, allowing just 112.5 yards per game. Of course, that’s a little deceiving in itself, given the success with which Appalachian State ran the ball last week.

The Aggies’ secondary will certainly be tested this week, and I believe it’ll be up to the task.

If the Canes are smart, they’ll dink and dunk their way down the field and put the emphasis of the Aggies’ defense on their linebackers. I just don’t believe the Canes are patient enough on offense to do that on a consistent basis.

Fisher was 7-1 against Miami as head coach at Florida State. Make it 8-1 vs. the Canes. Texas A&M gets the job done, but just barely.