Fearless Prediction: Tennessee vs. Bowling Green

Hey there everyone! The Fearless Prediction is back for another season and ready to roll.

For long-time readers, you know that the Fearless Prediction is the interweb’s utmost authority when it comes to forecasting the results of Tennessee football games. Now that gambling is legal in the Volunteer State, I plan on turning my picks into a Turks and Caicos beach house.

So let’s get started.

The Vols open the 2021 season with a Thursday night special on the SEC Network against Bowling Green. It’s been a tumultuous off-season for Tennessee, with a coach firing, an athletic director *cough* retirement *cough cough* and an NCAA investigation into recruiting violations. The roster looks a heck of a lot of different thanks to the transfer portal as well.

The position with the most change for Tennessee is at quarterback. For the first time since 2016, Jarrett Guarantano is not on the roster. And while I am well aware that Guarantano has transferred to Washington State, I won’t believe that he’s not starting against Bowling Green until Tennessee’s first offensive snap has been taken.

In addition to Guarantano’s departure, JT Shrout transferred to Colorado, Kaidon Salter was dismissed and Brian Maurer quit during preseason camp. In their place came Virginia Tech grad transfer Hendon Hooker and Michigan transfer Joe Milton. The only guy left from the 2020 quarterback room is Harrison Bailey.

Milton won the competition over Bailey and Hooker, and was named the starter for the Bowling Green game. This shouldn’t have been much of a suprise. New Tennessee coach Josh Heupel brought in Milton after spring practice. He wasn’t sold on his QBs in April, and apparently not much has changed over the past 4 months.

Heupel has a long relationship with Milton. He tried to recruit him to Missouri when he was the Tigers’ OC in 2017 and then to UCF after he became head coach, but Milton chose Michigan instead. This is a chance for Milton to give his career a new start, at the same time Heupel is trying to jump-start Tennessee’s program.

It’s been said that an athletic director and a football coach are intertwined. If an AD makes the wrong choice, his future employment takes a huge hit. And while that likely is the case in the long term with Heupel and new AD Danny White, in the short term Heupel and Milton are the duo that counts the most.

Heupel’s offenses always score points, and we should expect a lot of that in this game. Milton has options in the passing game with Velus Jones Jr., Jalin Hyatt and JaVonta Payton. The run game will be a factor with Jabari Small and Tiyon Evans. We should expect those guys to get into the end zone a bunch against the Falcons.

Bowling Green brings an experienced quarterback to Neyland Stadium in senior Matt McDonald. He started all 5 of the Falcons’ games in 2020 and is used to head coach Scot Loeffler’s system after playing for him at Boston College when Loeffler was the Eagles’ OC. Terion Stewart averaged 8 yards per rush and scored 4 touchdowns a year ago. But this is a Falcons team that averaged less than 12 points a game last season, one of the worst offenses in college football.

On defense, the Vols have problems in terms of depth, but Texas transfer Juwan Mitchell should help fill the void left when Henry To’o To’o moved on to Alabama. The good news is that the secondary has experience with seniors in cornerback Alontae Taylor and safety Theo Jackson. Defensive end Tyler Baron might be ready for a breakout season and should be put in position to go after McDonald a bunch in this contest.

Bowling Green’s defense gave up a whopping 45 points a game in 2020. Linebacker Darren Anders led the Falcons with 11 tackles a game. Defensive end Karl Brooks had a couple of sacks. Otherwise, there’s not a lot for Falcons fans to feel confident about. They will have a hard time putting pressure on Milton.

This is a very young Bowling Green team, with 71 players classified as redshirt or true freshmen. It all adds up to what could be a very long night at Neyland Stadium for the Falcons.

I’m curious how much the Vols coaching staff is willing to show in this game. Next week they host Pittsburgh in what will certainly be a much tougher test. They want to give fans a reason to buy tickets for that game, while also being fairly vanilla to keep the Panthers guessing.

Fearless Prediction time …

Tennessee 48, Bowling Green 7