If Joe Milton is Tennessee’s starting quarterback in every game of 2021, he’ll have proved plenty of doubters wrong.

For now, all we know as that the Michigan transfer is slated to start in Week 1 against Bowling Green. That announcement came somewhat anticlimactically Monday with the release of the Week 1 depth chart.

Milton, who enrolled over the summer following his commitment to Tennessee hours removed from the Vols’ spring game, beat out Virginia Tech transfer Hendon Hooker and second-year signal-caller Harrison Bailey. It’s also worth mentioning that veteran Brian Maurer announced his intentions to enter the transfer portal during fall camp, and 4-star true freshman Kaidon Salter was kicked off the team after multiple arrests.

The title of “first QB1 of the Josh Heupel era” goes to Milton. Given Heupel’s run of 3 consecutive top-8 offenses during his time at UCF, that’s significant. Including Drew Lock at Mizzou in 2017, Heupel engineered 4 consecutive top-15 offenses with 3 quarterbacks (McKenzie Milton and Dillon Gabriel at UCF).

It’s fair to be skeptical that Milton will be as prolific as those 3 were in Heupel’s system. That’s got nothing to do with Tennessee’s revolving door of quarterbacks, or the fact that in an era when passing is king, the Vols haven’t posted a top-60 passing offense since 2012 (I’d expect that to change this year even if Milton doesn’t work out).

The skepticism stems from Milton.

Those who watched him lose his job after being tabbed Michigan’s QB1 in 2020 saw the inconsistency. He’d lock in on 1 receiver. He’d assume he could get the edge running away from a linebacker. He’d uncork a 95 MPH fastball on a throw that needed touch.

Michigan didn’t stretch the field with Milton as the starter — only 1 of his 141 passes went for 40-pus yards — which goes against everything Heupel is about. Whether that was because of Milton or because of the system is in the eye of the beholder.

Go watch every snap that Milton took in his second career start last year when Michigan was upset by Michigan State:

Milton’s final line didn’t tell the full story. He hit 300 passing yards and averaged 5 yards per carry. What else did he do? He attempted 51 passes and led his team to just 24 points. Of those 51 passes, only 16 were attempted past the sticks (he completed 8). He was 4-9 in passes that traveled 20 yards from where he attempted. There were at least 3-4 passes that easily could’ve been intercepted.

It was a “back to earth” performance after he received national praise for a Friday night victory in the season opener against a depleted Minnesota squad. In Milton’s 4 starts post-Minnesota, he:

  • A) Averaged 7.2 yards/attempt
  • B) Averaged 12 rushing yards per game
  • C) Went 0-3 in games he started and finished
  • D) Got benched after 5 scoreless drives to start game vs. Rutgers
  • E) All the above

It’s “E.” It’s always “E.”

You could argue that those were just early jitters for a first-time starter, and you could also argue that a guy in the same high school class as Trevor Lawrence and Justin Fields should’ve been ready for the opportunity when it came his way.

That’s why when initial reports surfaced that Milton’s transfer list was down to Tennessee or Washington State, it was a bit of a surprise that Heupel clearly had interest. Milton is an Orlando native, so it wouldn’t be surprising if Heupel already did his due diligence on Milton’s skill set and background before he hit the open market.

By virtue of winning the battle, Heupel essentially said that Milton is still fixable and perhaps he’ll function better in this system than he did in Josh Gattis’ at Michigan. We expect Heupel to take more chances downfield because that’s what he’s been doing since he bounced back from getting fired at his alma mater at Oklahoma in 2014. It’s not a dink and dunk offense. Milton won’t be asked to make 9 consecutive correct reads just to get points on the board.

Two things can be true at the same time. One can have questions about Milton’s ability to keep the starting job while also acknowledging that this system should be more quarterback-friendly.

All the talk from Tennessee’s fall camp was that Milton was the guy. Does that mean it’ll translate when the games actually matter? It remains to be seen.

Milton is attempting to do something that’s actually less common than you’d think in the SEC. That is, go from a summer enrollee transfer to becoming one of the league’s better quarterbacks. The SEC’s best transfer quarterbacks in the last decade or so — Cam Newton, Jarrett Stidham, Chad Kelly, Ryan Mallet, etc. — were January enrollees. Joe Burrow was a summer enrollee at LSU in 2018, and even he was only considered a decent starter in Year 1.

Of course, Milton is entering a different system from the one LSU utilized in the pre-Joe Brady era. Perhaps it will yield a 3,000-yard passer and an unquestioned season-long starter.

The good news for Milton is that he’s getting an ideal way to start the season. He’ll face a Bowling Green defense that ranked No. 126 of 127 FBS teams in 2020. He’ll do so at home in front of a crowd that hasn’t seen a Tennessee quarterback throw for 350 yards at Neyland Stadium since Tyler Bray did against Mizzou in Nov. 2012. Think about that. Connor Bazelak hit 406 passing yards in his first start with Eli Drinkwitz’s system last year. Maybe Milton is in for some similar early success with Heupel.

It’ll be worth remembering that even if that happens on Thursday, we saw Milton struggle once there was a book on him after last year’s impressive debut. Nobody will judge his time as Tennessee’s QB1 based on how much he put up against a MAC school that went 0-5 last year. They’ll judge him based on whether he can lead one of the league’s better offenses and usher in the new era of Tennessee football.

No big deal, right?

There are no shortage of questions about Milton heading into his second consecutive season starting for a high-profile Power 5 program. Heupel believes he’s the answer.

Milton got his second chance. Now would be as good a time as ever to turn those skeptics into believers.