I have some breaking news for Tennessee fans. You can debate whether it’s news, but after what we saw on Saturday night against Florida, we can now say this with complete and total confidence.

Tennessee isn’t competing in the SEC East in 2018.

Shocking, I know. I’d hope that even the small, overly-optimistic group of Vols fans could realize that turning the ball over 6 times and losing by 26 at home to Florida certainly wasn’t a good sign for SEC play in 2018.

I know that Tennessee fans were more realistic in Year 1 of the Jeremy Pruitt era. Nobody was expecting 8 wins and a legitimate rise into the upper echelon of the division. At least they shouldn’t have been. You don’t go from winless in the SEC to contender in one year. (Well, unless you’re Auburn.)

Positivity is key in a year like this. Call it a rebuilding year or a foundation year or whatever you want. It’s going to be rough on the scoreboard, but there are still a few things that Tennessee fans can look/hope for that’ll take some of the sting off what’s sure to be another frustrating season in Knoxville.

1. Jarrett Guarantano and Tyson Helton getting in sync

I’ll be honest. I was surprised that Helton rolled with Guarantano to be the starter this year. I assumed that Keller Chryst would get the nod as someone who was handpicked by Helton to come to Tennessee as a grad transfer. But as long as he’s healthy — that’s not a given the way he got hit against Florida — Guarantano will be the guy that Helton puts his efforts into developing.

Credit: Ben Queen-USA TODAY Sports

So far, Guarantano has done a fine job executing Helton’s system. He’s mostly been accurate (64 percent) operating the short passing game and doing a good job taking what defenses have been giving him. The reads are quick and the downfield shots are minimal with the suspect offensive line play.

What I want to see is if Guarantano can start hitting those 15-20-yard throws consistently. That will be a good sign for multiple reasons. Not only would that be a sign that Guarantano is improving as a passer, but also that he feels comfortable letting that play develop.

Now, it sort of feels like Guarantano only throws the deep ball if he’s throwing it up to a one-on-one matchup because he knows he has an untouched rusher barreling down on him. Obviously it’d be a sign that the protection is working if Guarantano is hitting on those plays if they’re in the flow of the offense and he’s not simply attempting those throws out of desperation (our Matt Hinton wrote an extremely interesting piece on that; it’s definitely worth your time).

By season’s end, though, you’d like to see the offense slow down as much as possible. I thought there were plenty of moments against West Virginia where that looked to be the case, but not against Florida. Guarantano has the toughness down, and I do believe he’s a more confident passer under Helton.

But the Vols dropped big bucks on Helton being the guy to maximize the Vols’ offensive potential. Guarantano will still have 2 years of eligibility left after this season. If he can start looking more comfortable against SEC competition — and get praised for something more than just his ability to take a hit — it’ll go a long way toward establishing optimism heading into 2019.

2. A healthy Trey Smith … and some help around him

Tennessee won’t have a shot to even be average in the East until it turns around its offensive line play. Period. The defenses they’ll face are too good for that unit to get by with lackluster performances. Florida served as a good reminder of that.

To say that the Vols’ offensive line looked bad would be like saying Butch Jones was a little in over his head. Tennessee had multiple 7-man protections that still ended up with Guarantano taking hits. Smith called it “disappointing” because it felt like more of the same as last year.

The good news is that Smith, who was a freshman All-American last year and is the most talented player on that unit, appears to still be healthy. The offseason drama over his status because of a blood clotting issue appears to be in the rearview mirror, at least for now. Him staying on the field and protecting Guarantano’s blindside — or at least trying to — is something the Vols desperately need through 2018.

Credit: Ben Queen-USA TODAY Sports

Smith and the Tennessee offensive line ranks 13th in the SEC, according to Pro Football Focus. The unit has allowed 25 pressures in just 99 drop backs, which is an unsustainable rate for Guarantano’s health. Drew Richmond and Jerome Calvin have received average marks so far, but the unit has still been a disappointment. The Brandon Kennedy injury was partially responsible for that.

A positive sign moving forward would just be Tennessee looking average up front by season’s end. That is, not making Guarantano a punching bag and not allowing the most tackles for loss in the SEC. It’s hard to establish a running game with 2nd-and-17 or 3rd-and-12 on every possession.

In order to run Helton’s system, which is predicated on having 3- and 4-receiver sets, Tennessee can’t afford to have 7-man protections on a consistent basis just to keep the quarterback upright. This line is going to limit the offensive development in Year 1 of Helton’s system if it can’t make some significant strides in the next 2 months.

3. Pruitt’s run defense gets progressively better

Even though Tennessee ranks in the top half of FBS teams so far (No. 49), I’m not sold on the Vols’ run defense yet. They’re allowing 4.6 yards per carry having just allowed 201 rushing yards to Florida at home. Granted, that’s not as bad as the 5.4 yards per carry and 251 yards per contest (No. 125 in FBS) that Tennessee surrendered on the ground last year. So perhaps that’s already a sign of improvement.

Since Pruitt became a defensive coordinator 5 years ago, his run defenses have gotten progressively better:

  • 2017 Alabama — No. 1 in FBS
  • 2016 Alabama — No. 1 in FBS
  • 2015 Georgia — No. 42 in FBS
  • 2014 Georgia — No. 61 in FBS
  • 2013 Florida State — No. 18 in FBS

Obviously having that kind of run defense success at Tennessee is a little different than it was immediately at Alabama. The good news, though, is that Pruitt had a major role in recruiting some of those dominant playmakers. So not only can he recognize talent, but he can maximize it in that area.

Tennessee has to continue to improve against the run to have a fighting chance in conference play. Duh. The good news is that Shy Tuttle and Alexis Johnson have played well this far on the interior. The idea of  running right up the gut at Tennessee is at least more of a challenge than it was the last couple years. And having Darrin Kirkland Jr. back has been key, as well.

But tackling in space is still a problem for the Vols. A young secondary probably doesn’t help matters. Still though, this is an effort thing:

As Pruitt continues to try to establish his culture and inevitably suffer some growing pains along the way, effort is going to be a popular topic of conversation (especially if he has players who allegedly refuse to take the field when asked). If the effort improves, it can become a major positive for this team going forward. It’ll prevent some of those lopsided results down the stretch, and it’ll actually show legitimate progress is being made.

There’s perhaps no on-field aspect of Pruitt’s first year that’s more important than that.