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What record will it take to win the SEC East and West in 2016?
By Andrew Olson
Published:
Everybody wants to win a championship, and in the SEC, the first step is winning your division.
In the BCS era, only once did a two-loss team get to play for the national championship: the SEC’s own LSU in 2007. The College Football Playoff has a much-smaller sample size, but in two seasons the CFP’s final four have consisted of undefeated and one-loss teams.
With that in mind, what record will it take to gain a spot in Atlanta and play for a potential playoff berth?
SEC East
Probable: 7-1
Possible: 6-2
Doubtful: 5-3
In the East, Tennessee is loaded with 17 returning starters, Georgia looks ready to contend again and Florida is determined to stay on top. With a stout defense, Missouri could be a sleeper if the offense improves, but based on last year’s results and this year’s spring games, the division looks like a three-team race.
The Big 3 will all face very difficult West slates, with Tennessee’s appearing to be the most challenging. Over a four-week period, Tennessee will play Florida (No. 19 in ESPN’s football power index), Georgia (No. 10), Texas A&M (No. 15) and Alabama (No. 6), with back-to-back road trips sandwiched in the middle.
Georgia will be tested with a Sept. 24 trip to Ole Miss (No. 7) followed by the Volunteers (No. 5) at home. The Bulldogs host permanent rival Auburn (No. 18) in November.
The Gators have an interesting draw of the West’s highest FPI team, LSU (No. 2), at home in October and the lowest, Arkansas (No. 27), on the road in November. Preceding the trip to Fayetteville is UF’s annual showdown with Georgia in Jacksonville, setting up back-to-back Saturdays away from The Swamp.
Considering schedules and the strengths of the Big 3, it seems unlikely anyone emerges from conference play 8-0, with 7-1 likely qualifying for the SEC Championship Game. Things get dicey at 6-2 with tiebreakers, as that’s a reasonable prediction for any of the Big 3.
It’s not impossible to win the division with a 5-3 conference record – the Gamecocks did it in 2010 – but it would take an unexpected bounce back season from one or more of the teams that finished below .500 (Kentucky, Missouri, Vanderbilt and South Carolina) to upset the contenders.
SEC West
Guaranteed: 8-0
Possible: 7-1
Doubtful: 6-2
The SEC West can be difficult to predict, as evidenced by LSU’s division titles with no losses (2011) and two losses (‘07). With so much talent in one division, many teams are capable of running the table, but the threat of cannibalization due to parity looms large.
Alabama is the best recruiting school in college football, but the Tiger teams aren’t far behind with rosters stacked with elite talent. LSU returns most of its starters, including a Heisman candidate, while Auburn has the weapons to be potent on offense (if it finds the right quarterback). There’s also the team that has actually beat Bama twice in a row, Ole Miss.
The West’s most obvious contenders have a more balanced cross-division slate than their counterparts in the East. Alabama’s game at Tennessee appears to be the toughest cross-division draw, but a September matchup with Kentucky should be a relative breeze. Similar balance can be found in the East schedule for Auburn (Georgia and Vanderbilt), LSU (Florida and Missouri), Ole Miss (Georgia and Vanderbilt) and Texas A&M (Tennessee and South Carolina).
In the past four seasons, no West team has emerged from SEC play unscathed, even Alabama’s two national championship teams (2012, ‘15) dropped one conference contest. But with no team drawing a comparatively unbalanced cross-division slate this fall, it seems safe to assume more than one team will go 2-0 against the East.
If multiple teams take care of business against the East, it’s likely a head-to-head tiebreaker decides the SEC West, meaning 7-1 has a chance of winning the division, but 8-0 is the only true guarantee.
Andrew writes about sports to fund his love of live music and collection of concert posters. He strongly endorses the Hall of Fame campaigns of Fred Taylor and Andruw Jones.
