NCAA Tournament needs to worry more about NET rankings than expansion

In the world of college basketball, the head coach of Clemson isn’t in the national spotlight (unlike college football). Fans of Clemson, Tiger rivals and the rest of the ACC know Brad Brownell, but the average college sports fan probably couldn’t tell you where Brownell coaches without Googling his name. ESPN’s Scott Van Pelt is helping bring national attention to an important issue recently raised by Brownell.

SVP used the “One Big Thing” segment of “SportsCenter” to highlight Brownell’s recent comments about how the Big 12 has “gamed” NET rankings. NET (NCAA Evaluation Tool) is in its sixth season, replacing RPI. Whereas RPI was all about winning percentage for a team, its opponents and opponents’ opponents, NET also considers game results, strength of schedule, game location, net offensive and defensive efficiency, and the quality of wins and losses.

Brownell says the Big 12 has effectively “manipulated” the conference’s NET rankings by playing weak nonconference opponents and winning blowouts. Van Pelt pointed out that quality of the opponent is still considered.

“Their nonconference scheduling, they’re playing 300-level teams and winning by 40 and 50 points to increase their offensive and defensive efficiency numbers, which is a big part of the NET tool,” Brad Brownell said of the Big 12 on WCCP. “So that’s why you see teams trying to win at the end of games by 30 or 40 points instead of putting in your walk-ons.

“So the Big 12, they’re playing eight nonconference games, seven nonconference games against low-level teams and increasing their NET. Then, when they all get into league (play), their totals are higher, their NET rankings are higher. And so their teams are perceived to be a little better than they are.”

A little better than they are is a key point. When it comes time for your bracket pool, pick against Big 12 teams at your own risk. The conference has made for some of this season’s best basketball. Suggesting the conference’s rankings are inflated is not to say they’re bad teams.

Brownell didn’t just go off perception or generalizations. He was happy to name names and give examples. Brownell recalled scouting TCU, who Clemson beat, and noting that the Horned Frogs had not faced any nonconference challenges. He then took aim at Iowa State, who lost to Virginia Tech, and Cincinnati.

“Our league has zero teams in the top 50 of the NET that have a nonconference strength of schedule 250 or higher. The Big 12 has six teams,” Brownell said. “Cincinnati is a great example. They had a bad week last week and lost two games. They’ve been in the field for a while now and they really haven’t beaten anybody. Their nonconference schedule is awful. TCU – awful, Iowa State – awful. So those guys have figured it out. (The ACC) hasn’t.”

One Big Thing
The NET Rankings pic.twitter.com/GBkXuXlgxN

— Stanford Steve (@StanfordSteve82) February 28, 2024

Speaking out at the right time

If one read Brownell’s comments without knowing Clemson’s record or standing, they might assume that the Tigers are likely to be left out of the 2024 NCAA Tournament, but that’s not the case. Clemson is solidly in the NCAA Tournament at No. 23 in the NET rankings with a 20-8 record, including 3 Quad 1 wins.

Part of the reason Brownell is speaking out is because of what happened to Clemson last year. In the 2022-23 campaign, Clemson went 23-10 with a 15-7 mark against ACC teams. Despite more than 20 wins and a strong showing against ACC competition, the Tigers were No. 60 in the NET rankings and did not get an NCAA Tournament bid.

It would have been convenient for Brownell to forget about NET rankings with Clemson on track to get a bid in the coming weeks. Or, he could focus his criticism to the size of the NCAA Tournament field. Every March, there are teams, such as Clemson in 2023 and Texas A&M in 2022, that look like they belong in the Big Dance, but just miss getting in.

The NCAA is reportedly considering expansion, up to 96 teams. Sports fans are happy with the way things are, but this is the NCAA we’re talking about. March Madness is a ratings bonanza with a lucrative TV contract. More teams mean more games.

The Tournament’s first round became arguably the top four days on the sports calendar with 64 teams. The expansion to 68 has worked out ok, though the First Four games tend to be mostly forgettable.

Expansion isn’t necessary. If the NCAA is worried about Tournament access, it can take Brownwell’s words to heart and re-examine the NET formula.

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Andrew Olson

Andrew writes about sports to fund his love of live music and collection of concert posters. He strongly endorses the Hall of Fame campaigns of Fred Taylor and Andruw Jones.