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Three weeks can be an eternity in football. Ask Les Miles, because in 2016, the season’s first three weeks were long enough to put him firmly on the hot seat. Four weeks were long enough to get him fired. We’re not forecasting when coaches go — but we are wondering about whether they go. Without further fanfare, here are the coaches broken into four categories and ranked based on their relative chances of near-future firing. How hot are their seats?
Pants on Fire
14. Kevin Sumlin, Texas A&M: Losing happens. Losing from a 34-point lead with 19 minutes to go should never happen. It’s not as if that opening loss at UCLA is the only issue for Sumlin, who has posted three consecutive 8-5 seasons. In each of those seasons, A&M reached the Top 10 in the AP poll. And in each, the Aggies finished unranked after horrible late-season play. It’s hard to imagine Sumlin eclipsing eight wins in 2017 (or reaching it, really), and it’s hard to imagine he has a 2018 in College Station.
13. Bret Bielema, Arkansas: In his fifth season at Arkansas, Bielema is 26-27. Bobby Petrino went 21-5 in his last two seasons in Fayetteville before Mistressgate sent him scurrying to Western Kentucky and Louisville. Obviously, UA would prefer not to go the dirtbag route again, but the fans do miss those victories. Arkansas was woefully unprepared against TCU, and looks like a 6-7 win team that could well be looking for a coach come November.
12. Matt Luke, Ole Miss: Honestly, Luke’s seat is probably on fire just because the impending NCAA hammer means Ole Miss might want to forget anybody ever affiliated with the last coaching staff. He’s doing a decent job with a sometimes outmatched team, but Saturday’s second-half meltdown at Cal suggests that Luke may well be a one-and-done in Oxford.
11. Barry Odom, Missouri: Second-year coaches don’t get fired. But Odom has already gone through a defensive coordinator, and if his offense brings a couple more 203-yard, three-point performances like Saturday’s home game against (gulp) Purdue, the entire staff might be looking for work. Frankly, it’s a dangerous proposition to fire a coach before he gets four years. It might be a more dangerous one to see how bad an Odom team in 2019 might be.
10. Butch Jones, Tennessee: Butch is the first of these coaches who could conceivably escape. But at the same time, it’s Year 5 for Jones in Knoxville, and ending the season unranked and out of competition for the East title is only going to cut it in Knoxville for so long. Twice in 12 games, Jones’ defensive backs have lost coverage for embarrassing Hail Mary bombs at the end of games. Joshua Dobbs bailed him out for the first one, but Dobbs isn’t in Knoxville anymore. Not sure how long Jones will be.
Feeling a Little Toasty
9. Gus Malzahn, Auburn: The newfangled offense that was going to take Auburn back into West division prominence is missing. If Malzahn weren’t an offensive coach, this might not look so bad. But when the one thing a head coach has hung his hat on is damaged and broken, it calls the entire coaching reign into question.
UF’s most recent SEC title was in 2008.
8. Jim McElwain, Florida: Speaking of offenses not showing up for alleged offensive gurus. Coaches coming off back-to-back division titles don’t get canned. But as with Odom at Missouri, traditional form might go out the window if this season turns into a dumpster fire. Watching Florida’s offensive line struggle suggests that is a distinct possibility.
Seats Warmed by the Grumbling Breath of Fringe Fans
7. Ed Orgeron, LSU: Losing by 30 to Mississippi State dropped the Unintelligible Wonder down a few spots. That said, nobody — even LSU — is firing a first-year coach. It’s hard to say whether Orgeron is or isn’t the man for the long-term job.
6. Will Muschamp, South Carolina: He got Carolina back in a bowl in his first year and might make another this year. That said, Carolina has lost four in a row to Kentucky. The results aren’t there yet, but Muschamp isn’t going anywhere new anytime soon.
Cool, Cool Seats — This Week
5. Mark Stoops, Kentucky: Had Carolina defeated Kentucky, he and Muschamp probably switch spots. Stoops’ job is uber-challenging, but after three lackluster years, he seems to be getting it right.
4. Kirby Smart, Georgia: He’s a second-year coach who isn’t going to lose too many games this year. His job is fine.
Vandy is 3-0 for the first time since 2011.
3. Derek Mason, Vanderbilt: Much like Stoops, Mason is doing more with less than anybody. Vandy fans should be less worried about Mason getting fired than about another school stealing him. Remember James Franklin? The powers that run Vandy’s athletics should too — and don’t let Mason out the door.
2. Dan Mullen, Mississippi State: What’s the common thread here, Georgia aside? Coaches at some of the SEC’s historic little brothers are consistently meeting and exceeding expectations, and nobody does that better than Mullen. Bulldog fans should pray that McElwain wins enough so Florida doesn’t get a bright idea to make a run at Mullen.
Need a jacket? It’s cold in here
1. Nick Saban, Alabama: In Alabama, you don’t fire Nick Saban. If he gets mad, Nick Saban fires you. And you like it.
Joe Cox is a columnist for Saturday Down South. He has also written or assisted in writing five books, and his most recent, Almost Perfect (a study of baseball pitchers’ near-miss attempts at perfect games), is available on Amazon or at many local bookstores.
