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Predicting records of the SEC after Week 4: What’s the record for 7-5 teams, anyway?
By Joe Cox
Published:
If at first you don’t succeed, try again after Week 4.
OK, maybe that’s not the axiom you’re used to, but it’s one we buy in on at SDS. If those preseason record predictions aren’t what we wish they were, we’ll just tear them up and start all over again.
Four weeks into the season, maybe we all know a little more about who the respective teams are. Here’s where we think they finish:
West
Alabama: 12-0
Didn’t see a thing Saturday to change our minds. Alabama had been a little sloppy — but a little Vandy trash talk changed the cycle in a hurry. Give the Tide a game and they’ll give you a fight.
Arkansas: 6-6
Guess it’s time to find out how attached to Bret Bielema Razorbacks AD Jeff Long actually is. This team just has nothing to hang its hat on. They’ve struggled on offense, they’ve struggled on defense, they’ll struggle in the SEC.
Auburn: 8-4
That Mississippi State game could get the Tigers well in a hurry — and allow them to start thinking about nine or 10 wins again. On the other hand, if they lose, it’s an eight-win ceiling.
LSU: 9-3
Despite getting absolutely massacred by Mississippi State in Week 3, LSU looks like a team with enough talent to bounce back and stay reasonably competitive in the West. LSU’s road looks a little smoother than Auburn’s although that could change in a hurry.
Mississippi State: 8-4
Pumping the brakes a little on State. The winner of the State/Auburn game is a player in the West. The loser is headed for a seven- or eight-win season. Next Saturday, we’ll know much more about a team that impressed for three weeks and fell flat in the fourth.
Ole Miss: 5-7
They were idle, so other than the general parity of the SEC, there’s not much to assess. Whether anybody wants to admit it or not, the lack of bowl potential will matter to this team down the stretch. Playing spoiler isn’t as fun as playing in a meaningful game. Saturday’s test against Alabama is meaningful.
Texas A&M: 6-6
Much like Arkansas, there’s not a ton to like here. Kellen Mond is playing better, and A&M’s upside is a little better than Arkansas’. Still wouldn’t want to gamble on either team to be any good at any point in this season.
East
Florida: 7-4
Florida would’ve escaped the 7-4 trap, but they missed a game that we assume would’ve been their eighth win. The Luke Del Rio Gators were a little sharper than the Feleipe Franks-led version. Will it be enough against teams that don’t have a 31-game losing streak to them?
Georgia: 10-2
The class of the East, at least until somebody serves notice otherwise. Every time UGA has been challenged, it has answered the bell. No reason to think the Dawgs don’t end up in Atlanta.
Kentucky: 7-5
The Wildcats could’ve distanced themselves from the SEC pack by beating Florida. Instead, like everybody who isn’t Georgia, Kentucky could win or lose or any given day in the league. The gap between Kentucky and other pursuers has closed, but UK could’ve opened up a gap on some of the East. Not so much Saturday.
Missouri: 3-9
Downgrading the win estimate after another hopeless week. Hard to remember now how this team actually won the East not that long ago.
South Carolina: 7-5
The only reason we’re this bullish on Carolina is that they’ll play Texas A&M and Arkansas out of the West. In fact, that’s the next two games. If Carolina can’t split them at least, they’ll have a losing season. As it stands, they might sweep both.
Tennessee: 7-5
Someone has to win some of these East games late in the season. But for that simple fact, Tennessee wouldn’t be our pick to do much of anything. That the Vols would take a step backward without their senior leaders isn’t shocking. That the step looks gigantic is shocking.
Vanderbilt: 7-5
Maybe we can just pick the entire East to go 7-5. Well, except Georgia (and Missouri). Outside of those two, it looks like a division full of 7-5 teams, and Vanderbilt is one of them. They aren’t explosive, they aren’t offensively impressive, but they play within themselves and in the other 10 games of the year that aren’t Alabama or Georgia, they’re capable of winning. Or losing.
Joe Cox is a columnist for Saturday Down South. He has also written or assisted in writing five books, and his most recent, Almost Perfect (a study of baseball pitchers’ near-miss attempts at perfect games), is available on Amazon or at many local bookstores.
