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Will Texas make the College Football Playoff in 2024? Breaking down the betting odds
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Texas is making the jump to the SEC this season and will once again have national championship aspirations under Steve Sarkisian.
The Longhorns made the College Football Playoff last season, and nearly pulled off a miraculous comeback against Washington to reach the title game. In 2024, Texas returns several key players from last year’s squad as it looks to take another leap forward.
The betting markets are bullish on Texas to get into the 12-team Playoff in 2024. As of publication, Texas is -190 to reach the College Football Playoff, according to the latest odds from Caesars Sportsbook.
Let’s take a look at Texas’ returning roster and schedule to see if the Longhorns are a good bet to get back to the CFP in 2024:
Texas’ 2024 roster and returning production
Texas is fresh off of its first-ever College Football Playoff appearance, and once again has a loaded roster. The Longhorns rank 36th nationally in ESPN’s SP+ returning production metric, which is amongst the best marks for teams with College Football Playoff aspirations in 2024.
Texas’ returning offense is particularly impressive. Quarterback Quinn Ewers is back, as are running backs CJ Baxter and Jaydon Blue. Crucially, the Longhorns also bring back 4 starters on the offensive line — including Kelvin Banks Jr., who could be the top tackle selected in the 2025 NFL Draft.
The Longhorns did lose their top wide receivers this offseason, but they were aggressive in addressing those needs in the transfer portal. Texas secured commitments from ex-Alabama wide out Isaiah Bond and former Houston wide receiver Matthew Golden to help replace AD Mitchell and Xavier Worthy. The Longhorns also added former Alabama tight end Amari Niblack, who should be a big help in the passing game as well.
Defensively, Texas doesn’t return quite as much talent. T’Vondre Sweat, Byron Murphy and Jaylan Ford were a big part of UT’s success last season, and that trio of front-7 standouts are now going to be playing on Sundays this fall.
However, Texas did add a few star transfers in safety Andrew Mukuba, defensive lineman Bill Norton and edge Trey Moore to help stabilize things on that end of the field. Overall, per SP+’s calculations, Texas’ defense returns 61% of its production in 2024 — not amazing, but not terrible by any means either.
Returning defensive standouts include linebacker Anthony Hill, defensive back Jahdae Barron and linebacker David Gbenda. Texas’ defense ranked in the 85th percentile nationally in success rate last season, and the Longhorns should be in position to perform similarly — if not better — in 2024.
Texas’ 2024 schedule
Texas and Oklahoma are both making the jump to the SEC this season, but the Longhorns are set up with a much easier path to 10+ wins — at least on paper. Texas’ SEC schedule includes matchups against Oklahoma, Georgia and Texas A&M. But none of its other SEC opponents have major College Football Aspirations in 2024. The rest of Texas’ SEC slate is filled out by Florida, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt, Arkansas and Kentucky.
According to average win total of conference opponents (via FanDuel), Texas has the weakest strength-of-schedule in the SEC in 2024. Its average SEC opponent has a win total of just 6.25. Of course, Texas’ schedule does include a road game against defending national champion Michigan, which will boost its overall SOS significantly.
Here’s a look at Texas’ week-by-week schedule for this fall:
- Aug. 31: Colorado State
- Sept. 7: at Michigan
- Sept. 14: UTSA
- Sept. 21: Louisiana-Monroe
- Sept. 28: Mississippi State
- Oct. 12: Oklahoma
- Oct. 19: Georgia
- Oct. 26: at Vanderbilt
- Nov. 9: Florida
- Nov. 16: at Arkansas
- Nov. 23: Kentucky
- Nov. 30: at Texas A&M
Based on SP+’s numbers, Texas has the 14th highest-ranked strength of schedule in the country for 2024. The Longhorns will face 4 teams currently ranked in the top-20 of SP+’s post-spring update: Georgia, Michigan, Oklahoma and Texas A&M.
The Georgia and Oklahoma games will happen in back-to-back weeks, but otherwise, this schedule lays out pretty will for Texas. The Longhorns will be massive favorites in the weeks leading up to their marquee matchups against Colorado State and Kentucky. They also have an open date before the Oklahoma game (as do the Sooners).
Will Texas make the College Football Playoff in 2024?
Texas likely need to go at least 10-2 to earn an at-large berth into the expanded College Football Playoff, although 9-3 could get the job done depending on how other teams around the country perform. ESPN’s SP+ gives Texas a 63.2% chance to reach 10 regular-season wins — a benchmark this program has hit just once in the last 14 seasons (last year).
ESPN’s Football Power Index is slightly more bullish on the Longhorns, giving them a 67.8% chance to make the Playoff. That number may not seem incredibly high, but that figure is 3rd nationally behind only Georgia and Oregon in FPI’s projections.
Caesars is offering Texas to make the Playoff at -190, which translates to implied odds of 65.52%. That’s slightly lower than FPI’s projection, which means there is a little bit of value ($3.48 expected value on a $100 wager) on backing the Longhorns to reach the Playoff.
There is some risk at backing Texas at this number, but its manageable schedule and CFP experience from last season should be enough to get it into the 12-team field. Caesars is also offering a great price compared to other shops. Most other sportsbooks have Texas to make the Playoff priced at -230 or worse. I’m comfortable with backing the Longhorns in this spot.
PICK: Texas to make the College Football Playoff (-190 at Caesars)
Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
