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The SEC men’s basketball slate for Wednesday night is absolutely loaded with matchups that will impact the league standings as well as NCAA Tournament seeding.Â
The headliner is Alabama’s trip to Columbia to take on No. 15 Mizzou. The Tigers have been one of the most surprising teams in the country this season and they can make a big statement on Wednesday night with a win over Alabama.
The other 2 matchups on tap for Wednesday night are Vanderbilt at Kentucky and Arkansas at Auburn. Those games could have postseason implications across the board as well.Â
Best DFS picks for Feb. 19
Below are 4 picks for Wednesday evening that can be found on Underdog Fantasy. If you’re new to Underdog, here’s Saturday Down South’s full Underdog Fantasy review, which includes insights into one of the best DFS apps on the market!
Mark Mitchell higher than 15.5 points + assists
I typically lean toward taking ‘higher than’ projections for Alabama opponents strictly because of the pace that the Tide play at. Alabama is No. 1 nationally in tempo with 75.7 possessions per 40 minutes on average, according to KenPom. That’s a big number — and it means there’s likely to be more possessions in this game for Mizzou players to eclipse their projections. It’s also worth noting that Alabama’s defense has slipped a little bit in recent weeks. Per BartTorvik, Alabama ranks 44th nationally in schedule-adjusted defensive efficiency since Jan. 14. Mizzou’s offense ranks No. 1 over that same span.Â
With all of that in mind, I like Mark Mitchell to go higher than 15.5 points + assists in this matchup. Mitchell is surrounded by good shooters in the Mizzou lineup and has been very effective at scoring within the offense. He leads all Mizzou players in usage rate during conference play and I think he might get even more opportunities than usual vs. the Tide. Alabama coach Nate Oats deploys a defense that guards the perimeter extremely well. His team is elite at preventing 3-point attempts (1st in the SEC in 3-point attempt rate) and limiting makes (opponents are shooting just 30.6% from 3-point range in conference play vs. Alabama). If Alabama’s defense decides to collapse down on Mitchell and make him pass, he can make them pay by finding elite shooters on the perimeter as well (2.1 assists per game over his last 9).
Mark Sears lower than 3.5 turnovers
Mark Sears has struggled this season as his field goal percentage remains below 40% on the year. His inconsistency has bled into his playmaking as well, as Sears is averaging a career-high 2.8 turnovers per game on the season. But when you dig into the game-by-game numbers, it seems Sears is just more susceptible to big blowup games in the turnover department. Here are his turnover numbers in each of his last 9 contests: 1, 1, 0, 2, 7, 6, 6, 3, 2. As you can see, when Sears goes higher than 3.5 turnovers, he goes way higher. But in two-thirds of his games over that stretch, he’s come in on the lower side.Â
I think we get another ‘lower’ game for Sears. Alabama should be re-focused after playing very poorly offensively in a loss to Auburn last week. Sears only turned the ball over twice in that game but he shot just 4-of-17 from the floor. I’m expecting a more refined version of the Alabama offense against Mizzou as a correction to that lackluster effort.Â
Jason Edwards higher than 17.5 points
Kentucky has quietly been struggling for about a month now — at least when it’s not playing Tennessee. Aside from 2 wins over the Vols, the Wildcats have just 1 other win over that span and it came against lowly South Carolina. Since Jan. 15, Kentucky is 29th in schedule-adjusted net rating, per BartTorvik. That includes a defensive rating that ranks 131st nationally over that span. Vandy, meanwhile, has the No. 17 offense over that same stretch of games.
The biggest driver of offense for Vandy during conference play has been Jason Edwards. He leads the team with a 29% usage rate during SEC action and has also been a reasonably-efficient scorer with a true shooting percentage of 56%. Edwards is averaging 19 points per game over his last 8 contests and has scored at least 18 points in 6 of those games. He’s a strong 3-point shooter (38% on over 5 attempts per game) and will now face one of the worst 3-point attempt rate defenses in the country in Kentucky (319th per KenPom).
Adou Thiero higher than 18.5 points + rebounds
Auburn is coming off of an emotional win over rival Alabama this weekend but will have to re-focus quickly ahead of this matchup against an Arkansas team that’s still battling for an NCAA Tournament berth. The emergence of Adou Thiero has been key for the Razorbacks this season as he’s averaging 13.8 points and 6.5 rebounds per game during conference play.
I like this matchup against Auburn for Thiero and it’s not just because the Tigers may be looking at a let down spot. Thiero has been extremely consistent at getting to the free throw line this season as he’s averaging 7 FT attempts per game. Kentucky, meanwhile, is 15th in the SEC in free throw attempt rate defense this season. That could mean a couple extra trips to the charity stripe for Thiero to help boost his points. Thiero is also a very good offensive rebounder as he’s pulled down multiple O-boards in 4 of his last 5 games. Auburn’s biggest defensive weakness might be on the glass as it’s just 14th in the league in defensive rebounding rate during conference play.Â
Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
